Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Haiti weakens Ernesto

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:13 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006

Ernesto is has been clobbering Hispanolia all morning with tropical storm force winds and torrential rains. But now, the island has bitten back. Ernesto is struggling to hold his eye together, thanks to the mountainous terrain on the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. The 1:10pm and 3pm EDT Hurricane Hunter eye reports found a surface pressure estimated at 1007 mb, a big increase from this morning's 995 mb. Moreover, the eye was substantially tilted, with the calm at the surface about 25 miles south of the calm at the 10,000 foot flight level. The plane could find maximum winds of only 35 mph during that 2-hour period, so Ernesto will probably be downgraded to a tropical storm with the 5pm advisory. The center of the storm is just south of some very mountainous terrain, and this is significantly disrupting Ernesto. The upper level outflow still looks strong, wind shear is weak, and an upper-level anticyclone (clockwise-rotating region of winds) is still in place, so Ernesto will no doubt reorganize tonight once he moves away from Haiti. However, given Ernesto's small size and the difficultly he is having with Hispanolia, there is hope that the expected 1-2 day traverse of Cuba will significantly weaken him. It may take Ernesto a day or two to regain hurricane strength once he emerges into the Florida Straits. This bodes well for the Florida Keys, which may dodge another hurricane. I think that only if Ernesto makes landfall north of Tampa will he have time to organize into a major hurricane.

The Keys evacuate
Monroe County emergency management is taking no chances, and has ordered a mandatory evacuation of all visitors and non-residents in the Florida Keys beginning at 1 pm this afternoon. A local state of emergency has been declared by Monroe County at noon today. All County and state Parks are encouraged to close this afternoon. At 10 am Monday, an evacuation for all mobile home residents will go in effect.

Figure 1. A view of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, looking towards Cuba. Note the mountainous terrain and totally denuded of trees. Deforestation in Haiti has claimed over 99% of all the forests. The lack of forest cover to absorb Ernesto's torrential rains will cause deadly floods throughout southern Haiti today and Monday. Image credit: Google Earth.

The intensity forecast
There is no major change to the intensity forecast. As long as Ernesto is not interacting with Cuba or Hispanolia, he should strengthen. A low-shear environment with an upper-level anticyclone (clockwise rotating region of winds) has developed on top of the storm. These conditions are highly favorable for intensification. Ernesto is over waters of 30-31 C (86-88 F), and these waters warm up to nearly 90F in the narrow channel between Jamaica and Cuba. These warm waters extend to great depth, and the total heat content available to fuel rapid intensification is high. However, given the sharp decrease in intensity of Ernesto, thanks to its interaction with Hispanolia, I no longer expect Ernesto will have enough time to reorganize and attain Category 2 status for its Cuba landfall. Expect a Category 1 hurricane.

The track forecast
The 12Z (8am EDT) models are in, and continue to show Florida will get a double hit--first the Keys, then the main Peninsula. The GFDL model is the furthest west, favoring a hit in the Panhandle as a Category 3 hurricane. The GFS is the farthest east, calling for a hit on Key Largo as a tropical storm. The other models are in between. At this point, there is no reason to disqualify any of these model solutions as unreasonable. It still appears that New Orleans can breathe easy, as Ernesto should miss that city by a wide margin. However, residents of the U.S. southeast coast need to be prepared for tropical storm conditions if Ernesto crosses Florida and then re-intensifies off the Southeast coast. Several of the models indicate a track curving along the Southeast Coast just offshore, which may bring tropical storm conditions to Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Ernesto is not a threat to New England.

The storm surge forecast
Ernesto should not generate as high of storm surge in the Keys as Hurricane Wilma did last year. Storm surge heights should be four feet or less. Cuba will block the formation of the mound of storm surge water that Ernesto is piling up today and Monday, and the storm will have to generate a new mound of storm surge water once it crosses into the Florida Straits. North of the Keys, any hit along the west coast of Florida as a Category 2 or higher storm will generate a 10 foot or higher storm surge, due to the shallow waters extending out for a great distance from the coast.

Next update
The Hurricane Hunters will be in Ernesto until about 5pm EDT this afternoon. The next mission is at 8pm EDT tonight. The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly tonight as well, so we'll have our first set of higher-reliability model runs Monday morning. The NOAA P-3 gets its first action Monday morning, and will fly their SFMR instrument that measures surface winds over the entire area. I may have a short update tonight if there's a significant change to report, otherwise I'll see you in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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1. calder 8:14 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
thanks doc Member Since: Julio 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 412

2. V26R 8:15 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Thanks for the Great Updates! Member Since: Julio 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

4. stormchaserDAZ 8:18 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
thanks 4 the update Member Since: Julio 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 246

6. Crisis57 8:21 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
thanks for the update hey Randrewl don't know if you saw my question on the last blog if that northward jog you and i noticed is true what could that do for the forecast track

7. sarty 8:21 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Thanks for the update! The explanations really help.

8. AvilaRocks 8:22 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
you are a preciouse gem, Dr. M. I am hoping Forecaster Avila comes in tonight and cleans up Knabbs and Stewarts mess

9. melwerle 8:22 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Wooo hooooo! Member Since: Junio 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

10. Texassippi 8:23 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
I'm glad that New Orleans and Biloxi out of the path as of now. Let's hope it stays that way.

11. Sprocketeer 8:23 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
whirlwind, how exactly does that suck?

12. CybrTeddy 8:23 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
hi Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278

13. Patrap 8:24 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
..Echo Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

14. RobinLuv 8:24 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
I think the luck has run out for the Tampa Bay area......RobinLuv, Bradenton, FL

15. AM91091 8:25 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Every calls this dead... I say it still looks like a decent tropical storm

16. PanamaBeach1 8:25 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
great...We dodged another one here in Panama City Beach... Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 61

17. AllyBama 8:25 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
tks Dr. M for info and thoughts. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499

18. nash28 8:25 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Thanks for the info Dr. Masters. Even if it is only a CAT2 hurricane, it would still be bad news for the west coast of FL. Member Since: Julio 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

19. JPN003 8:25 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Can anyone add any info about Typhoon Ioke? Where do they think it will make landfall?

21. ReefMaster 8:26 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Can someone direct me to Lefty's blog? Thanks. Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 53

22. CybrTeddy 8:27 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
what is this a TD or a Hurricane any thoughts Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278

24. Patrap 8:27 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
..The Song Remains the Same..Ernie ..needs to get his Mojo up..or hell not survive the trip...the Huracan' Gods r displeased Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

25. sporteguy03 8:27 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Yeah convection keeps firing, it will only take a few hours for it to cross Haiti back over open waters that are like a sauna...it is like an athlete getting carbohydrates before a run.. Member Since: Julio 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824

26. kmanislander 8:27 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
given Ernesto's weakened state ( which would seem to qualify for TD status )does that raise the prospect of the system being steered more by the low level versus upper level flow and if so does anyone know if the low level flow is more Westerly that NW. Just wondering if another track change more between Ja and Cuba is in the offing which would potentially allow for more significant restrenghtening ?? Any views ?? Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

27. iyou 8:28 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Thank-you for the update Dr. Masters. What bleak and dangerous desolation is a land stripped of its trees. Member Since: Julio 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219

28. PalmHarbor 8:29 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
When will the next set of model runs be available?

29. pinecrestjeff 8:29 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Conference at the National Hurricane Center at 5p.m. EST. You can watch it on CNN.

30. Hurricaniac 8:29 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
First!!

31. Miltonite 8:29 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
All I wonder is how many times will they push the track west. They usually shift the tracks west for the last few days of the forcast.

32. Patrap 8:30 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Ernesto needs to trend wnw..in a Hurry if he is to make a showing of his Potential seen last night and this morning..If you look @ the 2000 Hurricane Debbies path..It suffered a similar fate in 2 the Mona Passage...6 years ago.. Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

33. CybrTeddy 8:31 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
There saying the storm has weaken but epect it to come back stronger Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278

34. kmanislander 8:31 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
iyou Haiti is stripped of its trees because its people used them for cooking and just about everything else. A case study on how decades of rife poverty enforced by a failed political system can have a cascading negative effect Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

36. tampabayfish 8:31 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Let's not get too comforable...the only thing messin' with Ernesto is the Haitian mountains. Structural,its still is in great shape and deep convection is refiring as we speak despite the rugged terrain. Its lookin at bath water and little or no shear ahead prior to a Cuban lanfall...look out. That 35mph wind business seems farcical, I just had that in St.pete when a storm went through...

37. melwerle 8:33 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Jim Cantore is in Biloxi Mississippi...Ernesto MUST be going THERE... Member Since: Junio 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

38. chessrascal 8:33 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
there taking the hurricane right over my house in FL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

39. tampabayfish 8:34 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Nahh, Cantore is just a gambling man, when he runs outta quarters he'll be headin east and south...

41. CybrTeddy 8:34 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
chessracal same here its coming to us Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278

42. kmanislander 8:35 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
don't count Ernesto out he is making a comeback Link Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

43. melly 8:35 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Hoping that no-one meets with Ernesto.Such a terrible thing that the mind has to go through , prevention, then meeting the hurricane. Not at all good for the sane mind

44. nash28 8:36 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Guys, chances of Ernesto being a Cat4 or greater cane are very slim to none right now. However, do not get complacent over a CAT2 cane. A CAT2 cane can still relocate your roof. Tampa hasn't been hit by any cane directly in 80 years. CAT2 is still serious business. Member Since: Julio 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

45. tampabayfish 8:36 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Couldn't have said it better myself walrus, where's whirlwind...Montana?

46. iyou 8:36 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
kmanislander...I know... Member Since: Julio 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219

47. CybrTeddy 8:36 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
ITS BEEN DOWNGRADED ITS A TS OFFICAL Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278

48. WofTampaBay 8:37 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Posted By: whirlwind at 8:20 PM GMT on August 27, 2006. this sucks..no cat4.... adios Those of us in the path appreciate no CAT4....or 2 or even a lowly 1. Member Since: Julio 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18

49. melly 8:38 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
nash..Bingo. I almost got complacent with Wilma. So many local weathermen called Wilma a minimal hurricane. Now that I have grown much older. "There is NO SUCH THING as a minimal hurricane

51. nash28 8:39 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006
Yes Cybr, but by the time we wake up tomorrow or earlier than that, it will have moved away from those mountains and will restrengthen. Anyone who says this is dead is delusional. I really hope we don't get those folks on here tonight, although I know we will. Member Since: Julio 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

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