Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Haiti weakens Ernesto

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:13 PM GMT en Agosto 27, 2006

Ernesto is has been clobbering Hispanolia all morning with tropical storm force winds and torrential rains. But now, the island has bitten back. Ernesto is struggling to hold his eye together, thanks to the mountainous terrain on the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. The 1:10pm and 3pm EDT Hurricane Hunter eye reports found a surface pressure estimated at 1007 mb, a big increase from this morning's 995 mb. Moreover, the eye was substantially tilted, with the calm at the surface about 25 miles south of the calm at the 10,000 foot flight level. The plane could find maximum winds of only 35 mph during that 2-hour period, so Ernesto will probably be downgraded to a tropical storm with the 5pm advisory. The center of the storm is just south of some very mountainous terrain, and this is significantly disrupting Ernesto. The upper level outflow still looks strong, wind shear is weak, and an upper-level anticyclone (clockwise-rotating region of winds) is still in place, so Ernesto will no doubt reorganize tonight once he moves away from Haiti. However, given Ernesto's small size and the difficultly he is having with Hispanolia, there is hope that the expected 1-2 day traverse of Cuba will significantly weaken him. It may take Ernesto a day or two to regain hurricane strength once he emerges into the Florida Straits. This bodes well for the Florida Keys, which may dodge another hurricane. I think that only if Ernesto makes landfall north of Tampa will he have time to organize into a major hurricane.

The Keys evacuate
Monroe County emergency management is taking no chances, and has ordered a mandatory evacuation of all visitors and non-residents in the Florida Keys beginning at 1 pm this afternoon. A local state of emergency has been declared by Monroe County at noon today. All County and state Parks are encouraged to close this afternoon. At 10 am Monday, an evacuation for all mobile home residents will go in effect.

Figure 1. A view of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, looking towards Cuba. Note the mountainous terrain and totally denuded of trees. Deforestation in Haiti has claimed over 99% of all the forests. The lack of forest cover to absorb Ernesto's torrential rains will cause deadly floods throughout southern Haiti today and Monday. Image credit: Google Earth.

The intensity forecast
There is no major change to the intensity forecast. As long as Ernesto is not interacting with Cuba or Hispanolia, he should strengthen. A low-shear environment with an upper-level anticyclone (clockwise rotating region of winds) has developed on top of the storm. These conditions are highly favorable for intensification. Ernesto is over waters of 30-31 C (86-88 F), and these waters warm up to nearly 90F in the narrow channel between Jamaica and Cuba. These warm waters extend to great depth, and the total heat content available to fuel rapid intensification is high. However, given the sharp decrease in intensity of Ernesto, thanks to its interaction with Hispanolia, I no longer expect Ernesto will have enough time to reorganize and attain Category 2 status for its Cuba landfall. Expect a Category 1 hurricane.

The track forecast
The 12Z (8am EDT) models are in, and continue to show Florida will get a double hit--first the Keys, then the main Peninsula. The GFDL model is the furthest west, favoring a hit in the Panhandle as a Category 3 hurricane. The GFS is the farthest east, calling for a hit on Key Largo as a tropical storm. The other models are in between. At this point, there is no reason to disqualify any of these model solutions as unreasonable. It still appears that New Orleans can breathe easy, as Ernesto should miss that city by a wide margin. However, residents of the U.S. southeast coast need to be prepared for tropical storm conditions if Ernesto crosses Florida and then re-intensifies off the Southeast coast. Several of the models indicate a track curving along the Southeast Coast just offshore, which may bring tropical storm conditions to Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Ernesto is not a threat to New England.

The storm surge forecast
Ernesto should not generate as high of storm surge in the Keys as Hurricane Wilma did last year. Storm surge heights should be four feet or less. Cuba will block the formation of the mound of storm surge water that Ernesto is piling up today and Monday, and the storm will have to generate a new mound of storm surge water once it crosses into the Florida Straits. North of the Keys, any hit along the west coast of Florida as a Category 2 or higher storm will generate a 10 foot or higher storm surge, due to the shallow waters extending out for a great distance from the coast.

Next update
The Hurricane Hunters will be in Ernesto until about 5pm EDT this afternoon. The next mission is at 8pm EDT tonight. The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly tonight as well, so we'll have our first set of higher-reliability model runs Monday morning. The NOAA P-3 gets its first action Monday morning, and will fly their SFMR instrument that measures surface winds over the entire area. I may have a short update tonight if there's a significant change to report, otherwise I'll see you in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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2102. coneOfdeath 4:58 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2006
Update: Shopper's Hell (Redux) Gas: lines longer than a booklet about what your insurance DOESN'T cover, pumps out since yesterday, premium climbing - might be cheaper to fly home than drive, and containers containers everywhere and people backing their cars and trucks into each other - you'd think Ernie was trying to buy 12 things in the 10 items or less line! Food Stores: packed with clueless shoppers on cell phones, knocking over displays of Pork-Weenies-N_Beans, buying water when they could save themselves a few bucks just filling tap water jugs at home, stocking up on cake, cookies, cheetos, peanut brittle, and other life saving necessities Walmart? crammed to the ceiling with folks dashing for batteries, peroxide (after all, those taped windows just NEVER hold up well), rope (maybe to hang themselves for NOT moving AGAIN! lol), and light bulbs-LIGHT BULBS??!! (because they work so well without electrical power didn't you know?) UH OH. And how do I know all this? I must be one of those wonder-brains shopping late and lookin' dumb :O Sincerely, Conie (I'm trying a softer edge here - coneOFdeath sounds so close to home, now that I think about it) :)

2103. coneOfdeath 5:02 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2006
PS Norcross says we're all going to die. Oh goodie. lol

2104. frostynugs 5:03 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2006
ernie sure hasn't moved much... Member Since: Agosto 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 217

2105. dpryor1 5:32 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2006
Ok-,where is everyone? I have been a lurker for a few years now and really enjoy this site;you people are so entertaining- this is better than going to the circus! However, I have been refreshing my page for the last several minutes and there are no new posts. I can't believe you guys ran out of something to say... Keep up the spirited 'sation!

2106. coneOfdeath 5:52 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2006
perhaps they all missed my message about the gas lines and now find themselves trapped in the labrynth, can't back up, can't go forward, sun pelting down, A/C conking out, bickering, ATM cards not going through, pumps running dry, a cat mangling its pacing master because they keep stepping on his tail while watching Norcross tell us all we're done for . . . sorry - I am rambling just waiting for the blog to heat up myself

2107. dpryor1 5:55 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2006
I know what you mean. Evidently your advice was more invaluable than you knew...

2108. dpryor1 6:09 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2006
Come hither, oh great prognosticators of cyclonic projection! We of the lowly, uneducated masses need your input!

2109. coneOfdeath 6:49 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2006
Vent your ever enthusiastic diatribes of destruction - - - we sound like a Hogwarts drop out trying to conjure up a spell!! Latest Norcross - left, right, or down the centre - you're all going to croak nah, just kidding I know it isn't a 'laughing' matter per se, but to break up the monotony of impending doom and disaster from this deadly TD/TS/Could Be Cat 1-5, one has to lighten the load with some laughs . . . before power goes out and I start beeyaching!!! Conie :)

2110. coneOfdeath 6:58 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2006
ahhhhh, I know what it is now, Doctor. We are in ------------- the TWIlight zone. That's right. They have left those of us in the cone of death to our dishelved and rather untidy future. They are on another blog probably laughing it up over cocktails and catfish, sunning themselves and wishing we were there, or here, or . . . well, you get it. I wonder what 5PM advisory will say? The Western Atlantic visible loop looks rather interesting; some bands seem to be forming, or perhaps I have finally bumped over the edge and am now delusional. Waiting is the hardest part, oh Tom Petty how true you are, the waiting . . .

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