Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

GOOD BOY DR M LOL

now i am happy with the update

littlefish, I get what you are saying, but this is not 2005, its 2006, storms that develop from waves that came from africa, like any normal year, is for August and September.

June and July, is left for old cold fronts, upper level lows and disturbances from off central america, like any normal year.

Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 12:29 PM AST on July 23, 2006.
When is the plane scheduled for BOC? Any thoughts on this disturbance?

Monday. And it as a chance to develop, if it stays over water and wind shear decreases.

I got you both times 456, thanks!

However, the NHC is playing it cautiously and has put a Hunter airplane on call for Monday, if needed. I'll be surprised if this flight happens.

the tropics is full of suprises.

here it is from the Hurricane Hunter himself. Watch his blog for updates:

Posted By: LRandyB at 7:44 AM EDT on July 23, 2006.
Well, I got to work only to discover NHC canceled us for today and tonight. We still have possible tasking into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow.

You can get first hand from him. And check out his pictures from Beryl and others.

dr masters you really need to adjust your wu shear map it shows light to moderate shear nothing in the 20 knot range is this link messed up by the way 456 this center could form further north or east in more favorable area 456 look at wu shear map bob said last night it was not accurate well why dont they fix it im more inclined to trust bob lol is the steering flow out of the sw seems this thing would have to move more n or e where shear is less any opinions

right saint, the NHC wouldnt say that wind shear will become favourable if they knew it was to remain high.

Remember the NHC loves to say "Upper level Winds are not conducive for developemnt"

So i'm holding onto the NHC....but 98L cloud tops have warmed.

but still at 1009 mbar, 25knots (30mph)

cloud tops have warmed.

456 dos that mean it is geting stornger as wel talk?

Cold cloud tops mean strengthening.

"WSI you need to check the Fermi labs SST charts, they are much more detailed than what you are looking at on that link. The temnps in the Gulf are warmer than they were last year at this time...."

So you are telling me NOAA is totally wrong? The maps I looked at showed the total opposite of what you an SJ are claiming. Detail or not, the conclusion can't be THAT far off. Sure, maybe in spots here and there it may be warmer. Then again in spots its cooler. Overall everything I have seen shows its cooler.

Even the anomalies show the water is right where it should be in the areas you describe. Heck, the east coast was even cooler than normal for a while. Yes, I know this doesn't compare them to last year alone, but the point is the SST's are not as hot as some are making them out to be. Turtle had a blog describing the warm water in the northern Atlantic. Pretty interesting.

Even in the maps that SJ has in his blog, the east coast looks cooler over all.

I just think too much is being made of SST's right now being "warmer".

Cold cloud tops-strong storm
Warm Cloudtops-weak storm

In other words 98L has decrease in convection.

oh well bye bye 98L

hi, i am on the south cental La coast they say the high should be rebuiding over us again in the next couple of days, so that should keep away any thing coming this way.

Taz, not so fast, 98L isnt over....convection just simply decrease......it could come back.

why are we comparing 2005 SST's to 2006 SST's, we all know 2006 will not repeat 2005.

ok 456

"why are we comparing 2005 SST's to 2006 SST's, we all know 2006 will not repeat 2005."

Occured in the older blog before this one.

I agree with you about the comparisons. I just think too much is being made of the SST's. I don't see them as warm as others here.

I expected the cloud tops to warm up, it happens on a daily basis as the sun starts beating on them. In an unorganized storm like this invest it's normal. Looks like some convection is beginning to build in the west end of the BOC, but I expect it to really fire up again a well after sunset as long as Emilia keeps the blob shoved out over water.

we'll eventually get a hurricane be patient

Posted By: TropicalTerror at 1:38 PM AST on July 23, 2006.
this sucks i want a damn hurricane, BOOO mother nature, BOOOO

there is one in the eastern pacfic

if people are feeling so now, imagine how they was in 2004.

Terror, be careful what you wish for. It just might come back and bite you!

A tad off topic, but relevant to the build up on our coastal areas at risk for hurricanes:
Too Many People on the Shore

lol there has been several in the east pacific. Possibly one more to be added soon (EMILIA)

the boc blob has a chance if it can survive until the shear dies down.

so, the story recently has been a lots o' Saharan dust over the Atlantic. this has probably shown up as a thread in a previous entry, but what does everyone think about global warming moderating its own impacts on tropical systems?

as rainfall becomes more variable, combined with the already expanding Saharan desert (as a result of overgrazing and other factors), will added dust prevent more storms from forming, even though water temperatures may be higher? Dr. Masters, have analyses of tropical storms (their frequency and their intensity) included Saharan dust coverage or density as a covariate?

surface low forms at 21 and 94 slowly moving north from w/c and marine disscusion nhc

the conditions are setting up for a storm in the gulf this week

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/06jul/gm_06jul22_2341_mult.png

This is the chart from yesterday.

http://srbdata.jhuapl.edu/d0043/avhrr/gm/averages/05jul/gm_05jul22_0335_mult.png

This is last years chart for the Gulf.

As you can see, the SST in the Gulf are higher than they were last year and the year before, when we had Cat 5 Ivan.

yeah thats not good

All tropical blobs must die!

Think I saw a model run form this into a storm.

I would like to report a very very heavy downpoor over the Whittier, CA area. Lots of lightning. A lor of rain fell in a few moments. I took a lot of pics of it and a video.

tropical downpours over northeast florida with 50 mph winds

The 12Z cmc looks a bit scary for the Bahamas. The 12z GFS keeps that cape verde very weak, disipating in Fl. Also spits some lows out into the EP as the cmc. Nogaps is quiet, with nothing new forming. Ukmet is on board with NOGAPS. All 4 doesn't develope the GOM blob. (scroll right & click FWD on those links) GFDL doesn't have it's run out on this page though I noticed it up in Master's entry. GFDL normally preforms badly when 2 storms are close together as in this invest & Emilie. When you watch each storm's track & notice where the other storm is, it will almost always be differnrt depending on which storm run your looking at.

I have changed my computer and did not copy all of my links. So does anyone have the links that show the pictures from space to show damage from all of the hurricanes like Rita Katrina etc?

earthlydragonfly~ NASA, GISc & here's the link I keep around it's NOAA's aerial photos.

oops that last one for looking at all storms should be Link.

Stormw, I think most scientists agree that the upper upper atmosphere may actually grow slightly COOLER with Global Warming because less heat would be allowed to escape that far up and would remain trapped nearer the surface, so the idea that very high level atmosphere would be warmer may not be accurate. The opposite may actually be true. I just rememebr hearing that from some guru, but don't recall where.

Wow, that wind shear is fierce in the Gulf, thought I remembered someone saying it was dying down?? Looks like it is full-force right now. Blowing the crap outta that Western Gulf stuff, making it look less like a white glod and more like a wispy gray streak getting combed back over as far as the yucatan. Amazing stuff, that wind shear. Storm killer.

Interesting link prickly plant insect. :) Here's a quote.

The most alarming assault on our way of life comes at the hands of powerful interests in Washington and Columbia, who want to open S.C. coastal waters to oil and gas drilling and exploration.

But the crowds keep coming. Some 500,000 new residents will move to our coast in the next 30 years. More than 30,000 new homes are in some stage of planning, permitting, or construction in the tri-county area alone. Where will those people live, work, and recreate, and what impact will they have on this fragile coastal ecosystem?

The biggest effect would come from the people brought to the area by that "alarming attack" by the interests of the rest of the country.

If they changed the title of the article to "Too Many People" and left it at that I'd be happier. :(

LOL!

"As you can see, the SST in the Gulf are higher than they were last year and the year before, when we had Cat 5 Ivan."

Yeah, I saw your charts before you posted them. Mentioned I compared them in SJ's blog. Noticed you left the east coast out. :) Gulf looks slightly warmer according to your charts. East coast does not. Noticed a site with more updated anomaly info. Didn't realize the dating in the one I posted previously. Little warmer overall, but again these compare to the climate norms, not last year. Here you can find anomalies for both years. 2005 looked warmer over all.

Guess its a matter of perspective. Believe the sites you want, but I will stick with NOAA on this one.

Also, keep in mind that just because a CAT 5 crossed the waters with those temps before, DOES NOT mean it will happen this time. As said on here before, SST's are not the only factor in storm strength.

Wind shear is strong over the bay of campeche not the gulf.

Brownsville forecast discussion describes shear as "negligible".