Gamma Position Adjusted

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:20 PM GMT en Noviembre 19, 2005

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Just a reminder, this is Shaun, not Dr. Masters.

Gamma Update

Well, some new developments have transpired since my last update. A hurricane hunter that investigated Gamma found that the center of the storm was considerably farther southeast than originally thought. You can see the storm center on the visible satellite loop spinning just north of the Honduras coast. While looking at this loop, you can see a very slight eastward movement which is expected to be short-lived.
The storm center is exposed to the south with the main convection field still observed well north of the center, which has a minimum low pressure of 1004 mb. Flight level winds were reported at 49 knots, with an initial intensity of 40 knots. The storm's convection also remains unorganized.
Gamma is faced with some obstacles with regards to intensification. Wind shear is still considerably strong over the system (20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical shear) and this value is expected to increase even more. This by itself should be enough to inhibit any significant strengthening. Secondly, the ridge of high pressure to the system's north is expected to weaken, allowing a trough and low pressure system to develop over the eastern United States. This should turn northeast and again hamper any significant intensification.
Models have once again trended more to the east and south and this is again reflected in the official NHC forecast track, which now takes it across central Cuba and well south of Florida towards the southern Bahamas. This track follows the GFDL closely with regards to position. The GFS loops a weak Gamma through the northwest Caribbean south of Cuba while the BAM takes the storm just south of Florida.
Also, the storm created landslides in Honduras today and claimed the lives of two people.

Figure 1. Most recent computer models for Gamma.

Figure 2. Official NHC forecast track taking Gamma even farther south that previous forecasts.

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114. weatherwannabe
8:09 AM GMT en Noviembre 24, 2005
happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy happy THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
113. willtell
8:54 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
new blog up
112. Fshhead
8:46 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
yo dcw wasn't I talkin to u today about the global warming??
Member Since: Noviembre 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
111. Fshhead
8:44 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
man I just saw latest track & just gotta say very releived.
Hope this is finally it for this season!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Noviembre 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
110. StormDrain
8:43 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
Uh-oh, Banana slugs.

Member Since: Octubre 9, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 495
109. Fshhead
8:42 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
wow, funny when storm threatening there does not seem to be fightin' but, as soon as we in the clear here we goooooooooo Cant we all just get along..................
Member Since: Noviembre 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
108. willtell
8:39 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
Gamma has done the "wrong-way" Lenny trick
107. DaAntiCyclone
8:33 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
dcw, you have mail.
106. willtell
7:53 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
dcw, he's very young and thus obviously talented.
Apparently, it also lacks grammar classes
I and can give you a quick lesson: the word "it" is not used for people, but things. Zeta is not an "it".
Good night, no sense in talkimng to someone who has an imperative need to always be right...
105. dcw
7:42 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
How old is he? I don't know many people capable of typing who are not also capable of legible posts.

Now, on Gamma: it's gone. The recon found 35kt flight-level and the convection is dissipating. I'm keepin it a depression for now, but I think it'll dissipate within 12-24 hours.
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
104. willtell
7:38 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
Do you know how old he is? I do, and can tell you it IS too much to ask, and also very cruel
103. dcw
7:26 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
I don't think I'm superior to him...I'd like to be able to read his posts. It really isn't too much to ask that he follow the rules of the english language.
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
102. willtell
7:10 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
dcw, leave Zeta in peace, he's a nice kid. What makes you think your superior to him? Your spelling? Give us a break!
101. dcw
6:53 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
"billsfaninsofla if you are think of movie out of FL come to CA i think you may like it more in ca then where you are at now and ca do not get hurricane this big winter storm and and hot summer an some time nic weather to and cold weather so come on out to ca"

Apparently, it also lacks grammar classes. Could you at least run a spellcheck before you post?
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
100. theboldman
6:38 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
see ya david
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
99. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
6:34 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
billsfaninsofla all about movie to SAN FRANCISCO CA they do not get no hurricane at all in the summer time and if you ask why they do not get hurricane in ca the water temp is to cold to have them so any way movie out of FL and come to ca you will like it more her in ca give me a e mail on this some time on sunday ok

so goood night all got get some zzzzzz
98. Skyepony (Mod)
6:32 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
Billsfan~ I hope your tarps hold for the coming rain. The east coast, all the way up, is in for a storm.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37452
97. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
6:21 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
billsfaninsofla if you are think of movie out of FL come to CA i think you may like it more in ca then where you are at now and ca do not get hurricane this big winter storm and and hot summer an some time nic weather to and cold weather so come on out to ca
96. theboldman
6:18 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
oh wow bills
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
95. billsfaninsofla
6:10 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
dcw, please keep posting here....I'm getting tired of signing up for other sites, remembering passwords and all that.....

poeple, if you don't like or agree with someone, just scroll past it, believe me, I wish I had ignore and auto delete for a poster, but I don't, the site doesn't.....STOP complaining.......grow up...I'm tired, cranky, went through hurricanes, lost my roof, dealing with all the bad with insurance, will be forced out of my house due to mold, just in time for Christmas....so be grateful for what YOU have and stop the nonsense...
Member Since: Septiembre 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5471
94. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
6:10 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
hurricanechaser get back from where?
93. billsfaninsofla
5:58 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
Chaser....thanks, but there will be moments, as it is for all of us, one day you will say to your wife "why did we have kids?"...been there done it. but LOVE them


Canes are toast......doesn't matter now........they've been relegated to a 2nd/3rd tier bowl game....not good enough for UM

Anyone else in Broward getting rain? wow....at least 2-3 inches here....or so it seems....letting up now....flood warning in effect
Member Since: Septiembre 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5471
92. theboldman
5:54 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
ok see ya chaser
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
91. hurricanechaser
5:52 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
ok..i got to get her back to bed..shes 4 and a half..no way I love talking about my family..thank you so much for asking David...If I don't see any of you on when I get back..have a goodnight boldman, and the others...
David..Ill come to your blog when I get back.
90. theboldman
5:49 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
i can only play a cd player too lol dont play no stuff lol
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
89. hurricanechaser
5:46 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
thanks as always boldman..Ill be back if not too late..I promised David i'd visit his blog when I get bk.. i love being daddy....need to find more time to listen to some cool music..Ill leave with a question...if i dont return here Boldman..please leave me a reply on my blog if youd like... Have you been gifted musically...lie playing instruments or singing etc. Only instrument I can play is the cd player and my wife doesn't even want to hear me sing in the shower. Still love music nonetheless...lol
88. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
5:43 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
ok how old is your little girl if you do not mine by askiny do?
87. theboldman
5:41 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
ok go be daddy lol see ya later
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
86. hurricanechaser
5:41 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
hey David..I just read your mail...I will come there roght now..see you ion your blog..actually mylittle girl just got out of bed..can you give me another 15 minutes or so..I will either look here or in your blog when I return..ok?
85. theboldman
5:40 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
heck yeah chaser tuns are the way to go lol
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
84. hurricanechaser
5:39 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
I bet youre listening to some tunes as well ..would they be too far fetched to assume?..lol
83. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
5:39 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
hurricanechaser you got mail come to my blog
82. hurricanechaser
5:38 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
Im sorry Billsfan..the canes will be fine as usual. Thats awesome that you were and are blessed with one of each. :)
81. theboldman
5:38 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
yeah still up lol will be
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
80. hurricanechaser
5:37 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
hey thrre boldman..I see youre still up..lol...ohh thats right its only late for me..lol:)
79. dcw
5:36 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
"what is a "wrong-way-Lenny track?"

"Wrong-way" Lenny was a November 1999 storm which formed in the western caribbean and tracked eastward through the caribbean until exiting through the Windwards. It nearly acheived Category 5 strength at one point (DONT EVEN THINK ABOUT IT, GAMMA)
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
78. theboldman
5:35 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
hey be nice everybody and dcw you should go for a while to air out a bit ya know what i mean bro
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
77. dcw
5:33 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
"dwc, keep your postings on AHC, those interested will go there to read them, you have caused enough trouble here to stay away till your ego shrinks to the size of your brain"

Well, my ego will certainly still be larger than yours at that point. What trouble, other than the breif argument with TornadoTony, are you referring to?
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
76. theboldman
5:32 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
welcome to the hotel california such a lovely place such a lovely face living it up at the hotel california
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
75. theboldman
5:30 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
sry an help typing the eagles lol
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
74. theboldman
5:28 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
tell em willtell
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
73. theboldman
5:28 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
welcome to the hotel california
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
72. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
5:26 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
what is a "wrong-way-Lenny track?
71. willtell
5:26 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
dwc, keep your postings on AHC, those interested will go there to read them, you have caused enough trouble here to stay away till your ego shrinks to the size of your brain
70. billsfaninsofla
5:14 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
still too close for comfort..heard from the roofer tonight though, hopefully a signed contract tomorrow or Monday....
Member Since: Septiembre 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5471
69. dcw
5:12 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
My forecast for this evening, which can be found, as always, at The AHC website:

Tropical Storm Gamma
Amateur Hurricane Center
Advisory 6 - Midnight EST November 20, 2005

Gamma continues to hold on, despite massive southwesterly shear. Though the system looks truly terrible on satellite imagery...RECON found flight-level winds as high as 53kt...so Gamma is a 40kt Tropical Storm for this advisory. It is worth noting that the low forecast to develop into a strong nor'easter is beginning to form. Several relocations of the center have been made today,

The track forecast looked fairly simple this evening, with the storm tracking NE or ENE through the western caribbean into Cuba. However...18z models have...apparently...gone completely insane. The great majority of reliable models, including the GFDL and GFS ensamble, have lined up around a scenario unheard-of in tropical history...with the storm tracking nearly due southward past 24 hours, and the system reaching South America from the north as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. The models do occasionally have fluke runs, or bad data, so the track forecast will take the system over Cuba for now...but if the trend persists a large southward shift will have to be made.

The intensity forecast is also problematic. Should Gamma move east-northeastward as is currently forecast, vertical shear should destroy the circulation within 36 hours. However, a southeast motion may get the system away from the shear quickly enough to save Gamma, and give it...for a third time...a shot at hurricane strength. The current forecast calls for dissipation off the Cuban coast, followed by a rapid northward motion over the atlantic as a remnant low before being absorbed by the extratropical low mentioned above.

Initial: 16.0N 85.0W 40kt
12 Hour: 16.5N 84.5W 35kt
24 Hour: 17.5N 83.5W 30kt...dissipating
48 Hour: 19.0N 79.0W 25kt...remnant low
72 Hour: 22.0N 76.0W 25kt...remnant low
96 Hour: 27.0N 75.5W 30kt...being absorbed
120 Hour: Absorbed by extratropical low
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
68. billsfaninsofla
5:11 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
Chaser....no problem, not happy with 'Canes performance tonight.:( ......my kids are 18 (boy) almost 12 (girl)...
Member Since: Septiembre 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5471
67. billsfaninsofla
5:07 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
good grief...um, guess a good thing Gamma isn't heading here..been pouring.....for a good hour, raining all night..we have flood watches/warnins whatever.......in the east......at least 2-3 inches of rain
Member Since: Septiembre 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5471
66. dcw
4:23 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
OMG @ models!!!
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
65. taco2me61
4:11 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
Hi all, I am sure glad that it will miss S FL they have had enough like the rest of us...
Member Since: Julio 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3241
64. theboldman
4:09 AM GMT en Noviembre 20, 2005
hello
Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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