Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

El Niño falters

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:31 PM GMT en Octubre 05, 2012

+48

The progression of oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific towards El Niño has been interrupted by a marked cooling over the past two weeks, and the onset of a full-fledged El Niño event this fall and winter is now in considerable doubt. Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific were approximately 0.5°C above average--the threshold for a weak El Niño event--from the beginning of July through mid-September. However, for the past two weeks, these temperatures have fallen to just 0.2°C above average--solidly in the neutral category. In addition, over the past three months, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the Pacific have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño (one exception: some stronger westerly surface winds than usual have developed near New Guinea and Indonesia, which could act to push warm water eastwards towards South America in coming months and tip the ocean more towards El Niño.) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their monthly El Niño discussion, issued October 4, but continued their El Niño watch, giving a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place for the October-November-December period. This is a big reduction from 69% odds given in their September forecast. NOAA's final take on the matter:

Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Niño, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak. The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.

The lack of a progression towards El Niño so far this October means that the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to extend into November, as has been the norm over the past decade. El Niño events tend to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, suppressing hurricane activity. However, the latest 2-week wind shear forecast from the GFS model shows continued near-average wind shear levels over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic through mid-October. Given the recent faltering of El Niño, I expect that near-average wind shear levels will continue over the tropical Atlantic into November, and that we will see one or two more tropical storms in the Atlantic this hurricane season.

Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between October 2011 and October 2012 in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific between 5°S - 5°N, 170°W - 120°W (the Niño 3.4 region.) A La Niña episode occurs when SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region are 0.5°C cooler than average for an extended period (below the thick blue line.) La Niña conditions were in place between October 2011 - March 2012. El Niño conditions occur when SSTs in the El Niño 3.4 region are more than 0.5°C warmer than average (above the thick red line.) El Niño conditions developed in early July, but have fallen below the threshold for a weak El Niño event over the past two weeks. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Oscar about to meet its Waterloo
Tropical Storm Oscar continues to battle high wind shear, which has exposed the low-level center to view and pushed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's southeast side. Satellite images show a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm is closing in on Oscar, and this front will overtake Oscar Friday night and absorb the storm by Saturday morning. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar. It's looking none too healthy, with the low-level circulation exposed to view, and a cold front to the north beginning to overtake it.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. Beginning on Tuesday, we will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda, where the remains of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back on Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane Climate Summaries

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1301. 7544 12:44 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
97L out to recurve wave behind it recurve next Member Since: Mayo 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5922

1303. quasistationary 12:47 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Quoting atris: The new 10% off Africa looks good in funktop loop Link and the water vapor imagery is telling me its in a good environment .. Yes , I know the Cape Verde season is supposed to be over... It is over...it's getting too far west to be classified a Cape Verde. Member Since: Mayo 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 81

1304. atris 12:55 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Quoting quasistationary: It is over...it's getting too far west to be classified a Cape Verde. true ..I was getting ahead of myself ...but its an interesting looking wave IMHO for sure Member Since: Septiembre 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 56

1306. GeoffreyWPB 1:02 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
98L... AL, 98, 2012100806, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO AL, 98, 2012100812, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

1307. SLU 1:07 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Begin! 016 WHXX01 KWBC 081303 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1303 UTC MON OCT 8 2012 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121008 1200 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 121008 1200 121009 0000 121009 1200 121010 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 8.2N 37.6W 8.8N 41.2W 9.6N 44.6W 10.5N 47.9W BAMD 8.2N 37.6W 8.1N 39.7W 8.4N 41.6W 9.1N 43.4W BAMM 8.2N 37.6W 8.3N 40.3W 8.7N 42.8W 9.4N 45.3W LBAR 8.2N 37.6W 8.3N 40.3W 8.5N 43.0W 8.8N 45.4W SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 121010 1200 121011 1200 121012 1200 121013 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 11.4N 51.3W 12.7N 58.1W 13.0N 64.8W 12.7N 70.3W BAMD 10.0N 45.0W 12.4N 47.3W 15.4N 48.1W 18.7N 47.7W BAMM 10.3N 47.6W 12.7N 52.0W 14.9N 55.4W 16.8N 58.4W LBAR 9.4N 47.6W 11.1N 51.5W 14.0N 54.3W 16.8N 55.4W SHIP 30KTS 27KTS 22KTS 22KTS DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 22KTS 22KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 37.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 34.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 17KT LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 30.8W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Member Since: Julio 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2846

1308. CaribBoy 1:13 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Intensity models are not too excited Member Since: Octubre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2845

1310. SLU 1:18 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: 98L... AL, 98, 2012100806, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO AL, 98, 2012100812, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO 10% is wayyy too conservative when you look at the latest microwave pass. The system isn't that far from being a TD. Member Since: Julio 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2846

1311. SLU 1:22 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al982012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201210081302 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012100812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012 AL, 98, 2012100712, , BEST, 0, 80N, 308W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 90, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2012100718, , BEST, 0, 80N, 325W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2012100800, , BEST, 0, 80N, 342W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2012100806, , BEST, 0, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2012100812, , BEST, 0, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Member Since: Julio 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2846

1313. GeoffreyWPB 1:26 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

1314. CybrTeddy 1:26 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Watch this one closely. Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179

1315. GeoffreyWPB 1:31 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
97L... Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

1316. 7544 1:32 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Quoting 7544: 97L out to recurve wave behind it recurve next revise added 98l recurve next Member Since: Mayo 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5922

1317. GeoffreyWPB 1:33 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Bam, Bam, Bam... Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

1318. CybrTeddy 1:33 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride: Not too robust. That's for sure. Makes sense, too. And they were calling 97L to become a minimal hurricane. Clearly, that didn't happen. Think of Hurricane Tomas. This is similar to that. 06z GFS, 156 hours out shows a strengthening tropical storm. Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179

1319. GeoffreyWPB 1:35 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0930 AM EDT MON 08 OCTOBER 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z OCTOBER 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-142 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARKS: INVEST IN BAHAMAS FOR 08/1800Z AND FOLLOW ON MISSION FOR 09/1200Z BOTH CANCELED NY NHC AT 08/1100Z. Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

1320. MAweatherboy1 1:37 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
98L's kind of a throwback to a month or two ago when Cape Verde season was in full swing... it should be an interesting one to watch, development will be slow but it's very possible this will become Patty. Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6316

1321. AussieStorm 1:37 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride: Morning all. I logged in this morning and noticed many comments of the blog here are missing. It seems like the comments by Neapolitan and Patrap are gone. Have those users been banned? I think so because if you search for them by their handle it says it's been banned by weather blog admin. I sure hope they return soon. Well it sure seems to me that the longer range outlooks are hinting at much more rainfall for the Heartland! Great new Guys!! I guess it shows that certain people here are not above Admin or maybe they got to political. Nice convection associated with the ITCZ in the CATL now named 98L Olivia isn't looking to good. Prapiroon is building again, predicted to hit Okinawa this weekend, could see RI again. Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13269

1324. JLPR2 1:40 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: 98L... AL, 98, 2012100806, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO AL, 98, 2012100812, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO Wasn't expecting that so soon. Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1325. MAweatherboy1 1:40 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm: I guess it shows that certain people here are not above Admin or maybe they got to political. Nice convection associated with the ITCZ in the CATL now named 98L Olivia isn't looking to good. Prapiroon is building again, predicted to hit Okinawa this weekend, could see RI again. Pat's still banned, but I checked Nea's blog and either he wasn't banned or was only banned a short time because his blog is up. Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6316

1326. CybrTeddy 1:41 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride: Comparing 2010's atmospheric conditions to that of 2012 in terms of the vertical instability factor is like compared apples to oranges. Key word: 2012 Drought over the CONUS. This won't amount to a Tomas even. We'll see, even 2011 had significant vertical stability and we got Rina in October. That's not the only factor. 98L is being fed by the ITCZ. Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179

1327. MAweatherboy1 1:44 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Convection has been building some with 97L but it's very disorganized still: Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6316

1328. atris 1:46 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride: Nah. You're just looking ahead to the 2013 season. Just admit it. LOL. ;-) Well September was kind of boring ... couple of fish and that was all ... Member Since: Septiembre 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 56

1329. trHUrrIXC5MMX 1:49 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
possible epac major and Leeward storm there Member Since: Abril 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7875

1330. trHUrrIXC5MMX 1:52 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Any thoughts for 2013 season? Another active one...we are on a 3-year record for consecutive above average seasons Member Since: Abril 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7875

1333. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 2:06 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

1334. AussieStorm 2:13 PM GMT en Octubre 08, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride: But all else being equal, 2012 probably will fall a bit shy of 2010 conditions besides vertical instability. But I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong and we see another Tomas. I hope we don't see another Tomas, he was very deadly. 71 dead and $741 million in damage. Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13269

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