Super Typhoon Jelawat headed towards Okinawa
Super Typhoon Jelawat completed an eyewall replacement cycle over the past 24 hours, resulting in a slight weakening of the storm below Category 5 strength. Jelawat is now a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Fortunately, Jelawat is located well east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm is not expected to hit land while it is at major typhoon strength. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C that extend to great depth, so it is possible that Jelawat could regain Category 5 status later today. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 25 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.
The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, then turn to the north and north-northeast a few hundred miles east of Taiwan. Jelawat will likely pass close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 typhoon on Friday near 20 UTC, and could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm over the weekend. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Thursday, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Jelawat taken at 7:12 am EDT Tuesday September 26, 2012. A solid ring of echoes surrounds the calm eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Tropical Storm Miriam steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam is being attacked by high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and satellite imagery shows the storm is falling apart. High wind shear in excess of 30 knots will attack Miriam by Thursday, and Miriam should dissipate off the coast of Baja by Friday. Miriam's moisture is expected to stay out to sea.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 25, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Except for Nadine, the Atlantic is quiet
Never-say-die Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far from any land areas. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model--though the model shows Nadine stopping short of a direct hit on the islands. Nadine has already been around as a named storm for thirteen days, and will still probably be around a week from now. According to the Tropical Cyclone FAQ, the average Atlantic named storm lasts about six days, and the all-time longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone lasted 27.75 days.
A small area of heavy thunderstorms has developed about 700 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, is struggling with dry air, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Nadone as in Not done, I guess.
Plastic debris reaches Southern Ocean, previously thought to be pristine
Researchers on 70,000-mile voyage to investigate climate change say effect of humans is now 'truly planetary'
Zoe Holman
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 27 September 2012 02.00 EDT
Then you know of conflict..and that's always a good thing.
Thanx
"NFL Referee Lockout Ends: NFL, NFLRA Agreement Ends Use Of Replacement Officials"
777
WHXX01 KWBC 271250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC THU SEP 27 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE (AL142012) 20120927 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120927 1200 120928 0000 120928 1200 120929 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.8N 32.1W 28.9N 33.3W 29.4N 34.6W 30.0N 35.7W
BAMD 28.8N 32.1W 29.2N 32.9W 29.9N 33.6W 31.2N 34.3W
BAMM 28.8N 32.1W 28.9N 33.2W 29.4N 34.0W 30.3N 34.5W
LBAR 28.8N 32.1W 28.7N 32.5W 28.7N 32.7W 28.9N 32.9W
SHIP 50KTS 53KTS 56KTS 57KTS
DSHP 50KTS 53KTS 56KTS 57KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120929 1200 120930 1200 121001 1200 121002 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 36.3W 32.2N 35.5W 34.0N 32.6W 36.6N 28.5W
BAMD 33.0N 35.1W 36.9N 36.5W 38.8N 34.3W 40.2N 32.1W
BAMM 31.7N 34.8W 35.0N 34.0W 38.2N 30.8W 40.9N 27.6W
LBAR 29.0N 33.2W 29.2N 33.3W 29.5N 33.2W 30.4N 32.2W
SHIP 60KTS 59KTS 63KTS 64KTS
DSHP 60KTS 59KTS 63KTS 64KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.8N LONCUR = 32.1W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 29.6N LONM12 = 31.1W DIRM12 = 202DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 30.7N LONM24 = 30.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 120NM
$$
NNNN
Also, I would appreciate if you could expand on your comment, "It isn't", in your initial post that I reproduced below. I enjoy these types of discussions, but simple assertions like that are not useful and actually silly, as in: "It is", "It isn't", "Yes. It is", "No, it isn't"...it really goes nowhere you see.
For context, just in case you missed it, the previous discussion was comparing the importance of the locations of tropical cyclogenesis this season to the area where the greatest ACE has been recorded.
Link
gone are the days we tried to decide
where we would go now we just ride.
My youngest son is fully dressed and pacing the room...his heart is set on joining the U.S. Army, and the task has fallen to me to drive him to the recruiters office. He said he wanted to sign something, I asked him to show me before he signed.
If anyone has advice or experience with these matters I sure would appreciate hearing about it.
I am off.
THE
GFS FORECASTS A RIBBON OF VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...IN EXCESS
OF 2.25 INCHES...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OR PERHAPS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SINCE
THIS IS DAY 7...I PREFER NOT TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR OUT.
Link
Gosh !! we agree in part on something lol ...
Should surpass his ACE early tomorrow morning.
It appears Nadine is going to get cut off by another building ridge overhead in about 7 days, which will cuase her to stall for a day then get shoved back south, and then we will have to wait another 5-7 days for the next big trough to destroy the ridge keeping Nadine down in the Atlantic still, and then that would give nadine another couple of days to get carried out by the trough... Basically were going to be dealing with Nadine for another 15 days... UGH. Advisory #116 Here we come...
She has persisted 17 Days,
Nadine is forecasted to Persist until October 12th...
She will have lived for 32 Days... *New Record*
Debby officially cuased 308.7 Million USD, and killed 9.
Well, as a tropical cyclone, Nadine lasted for almost 15 days. It would still be a record for the Atlantic (30 days).
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
521 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-272130 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
521 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
$$
JILLSON
You have WUmail.
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in MD GRAY
Really.
I wonder how many advisories would be issued in 40~50 minutes.
Ok. so 16 Days. Because she was only Post-tropical for a day or like 36 hours... so either 15-16 days.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 IST September 27 2012
=================================
A low pressure area has formed over west central Bay of Bengal. The system may become well marked during next 48 hours.
Advisory 60 is going to be issued soon. Since one advisory is issued every six hours, so four advisories per day, it calculates to just fifteen days.
Ok. lol, you win. Good evidence to back you up.
Finally! A named storm hasn't formed yet in the NIO.
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2012
ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MIRIAM IS
WEAKENING RAPIDLY...AND ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION IS A SMALL PATCH LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...
WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. SHARPLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND A RATHER HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. MIRIAM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...WITH
DISSIPATION OCCURRING IN 3 DAYS OR LESS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL AND THE LGEM.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/5. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. AFTERWARD...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT A LITTLE
LEFT OF DUE WEST IN THE WEAK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY MARINE-LAYER
STEERING CURRENT BEFORE DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS...OR LESS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 22.2N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 22.5N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/1200Z 22.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 22.4N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 22.3N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z 22.0N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Just read the weekly ENSO update issued every Monday.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/ 0927/1224324469890.html
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 27 2012
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE
HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS A LITTLE RAGGED AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 6 HR
AGO...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW
IS FAIR IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.
NADINE HAS TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 240/6. THE STORM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HR. THIS WILL ALLOW NADINE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 29N48W. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...GFDL...AND HWRF FORECAST NADINE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES AS A TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STORM. THE UKMET...
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF NADINE IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTERLY TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD STEER THE STORM BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW MOTION AT 96-120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 72 HR...AFTER
WHICH IT LIES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO INTERACT WITH THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N48W DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THE TWO SYSTEMS POSSIBLY MERGING BY 96-120 HR. IN ADDITION...SMALL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH
THE STORM. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS NEAR NADINE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COULD
PARTLY SHIELD NADINE FROM THE RESULTING SHEAR. THE STATISTICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A STRONGER STORM THAN IT DID
DURING THE LAST ADVISORY CYCLE...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS NOW
5-10 KT HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 6 HR AGO. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT NADINE WILL MOVE OVER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY STAYS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
NEW FORECAST IS STRONGER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...BUT
IS WEAKER THAN SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 28.7N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 28.6N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 29.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 30.1N 35.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 31.5N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 34.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 35.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 36.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Don't models predict the future further out by analyzing based on what is normal for that time of year?
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