Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low
Extraordinary melting of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has shattered the all-time low sea ice extent record set in September 2007, and sea ice continues to decline far below what has ever been observed. The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set. These organizations include the University of Washington Polar Science Center (a new record for low ice volume), the Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center in Norway, and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. A comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs shows the full story. Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 5, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The ice continues to melt, and has not reached the low for this year yet.
Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day at the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory.
Figure 2. Sea ice extent on September 5, 2012, showed that half of the polar ice cap was missing, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Why the Arctic sea ice is important
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The Autumn air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is increased melting in Greenland. We already saw an unprecedented melting event in Greenland this year, and as warming continues, the likelihood of these events increase.
Figure 3. August set a new record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Figure 4. Arctic sea ice death spiral as plotted by Jim Pettit using data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.
Huge storm pummels Alaska
A massive low pressure system with a central pressure of 970 mb swept through Alaska on Tuesday, generating hurricane-force wind gusts near Anchorage, Alaska that knocked out power to 55,000 homes. Mighty Alaskan storms like this are common in winter, but rare in summer and early fall. The National Weather Service in Anchorage said in their Wednesday forecast discussion that the forecast wind speeds from this storm were incredibly strong for this time of year--four to six standard anomalies above normal. A four-standard anomaly event occurs once every 43 years, and a five-standard anomaly event is a 1-in-4800 year event. However, a meteorologist I heard from who lives in the Anchorage area characterized the wind damage that actually occurred as a 1-in-10 year event. A few maximum wind gusts recorded on Tuesday during the storm:
McHugh Creek (Turnagain Arm)... ... ..88 mph
Paradise Valley (Potter Marsh)... ... 75 mph
Upper Hillside (1400 ft)... ... ... ... 70 mph
Anchorage port... ... ... ... ... ... ... .63 mph
The storm has weakened to a central pressure of 988 mb today, and is located just north of Alaska. The storm is predicted to bring strong winds of 25 - 35 mph and large waves to the edge of the record-thin and record-small Arctic ice cap, and may add to the unprecedented decline in Arctic sea ice being observed this summer.
Figure 5. An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this natural-color mosaic image on Aug. 6, 2012. The center of the storm at that date was located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. Image credit: NASA.
Arctic storms may be increasing due to climate change
This week's Alaskan storm is the second unusually strong low pressure system to affect the Arctic in the past month. On August 4 - 8, a mighty storm with a central pressure of 963 mb raged through the Arctic, bringing strong winds that helped scatter and break up Arctic sea ice. According to a detailed post at NASA Earth Observatory, that storm was in the top 3 percent for strongest storms ever recorded north of 70 degrees latitude. A study of long-term Arctic cyclone trends authored by a team led by John Walsh and Xiangdong Zhang of the University of Alaska Fairbanks found that number and intensity of Arctic cyclones has increased during the second half of the twentieth century, particularly during the summer. Dr. Zhang explained that climate change has caused sea ice to retreat markedly in recent decades and has also warmed Arctic Ocean temperatures. Such changes may be providing more energy and moisture to support cyclone development and persistence. The strong storms of this week and a month ago would have had far less impact on the ice just a decade ago, when the sea ice was much thicker and more extensive.
A sea ice decline double-whammy
The monster Arctic storms like we've seen this year have sped up the rate of sea ice loss, but increased water temperatures and air temperatures due to human-caused global warming are the dominant reasons for the record melting of the Arctic sea ice. A July 2012 study by Day et al. found that the most influential of the possible natural influences on sea ice loss was the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO has two phases, negative (cold) and positive (warm), which impact Arctic sea ice. The negative phase tends to create sea surface temperatures in the far north Atlantic that are colder than average. In this study, the AMO only accounted for 5% - 31% of the observed September sea ice decline since 1979. The scientists concluded that given the lack of evidence that natural forces were controlling sea ice fluctuations, the majority of sea ice decline we've seen during the 1953 - 2010 period was due to human causes.
Joe Romm has a more in-depth look at the new Arctic sea ice record and what it means for the future over at climateprogess.org.
Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters
Beautiful orographic formations over the mountains on a windy evening.
Reader Comments
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Comic relief.... That's why I'm here today...
Nonsense. Opposition to AGW is certainly non-science-based, and frequently religious in nature. However, the science behind AGW is very solid and substantial.
That woooooshing sound is the shear.
Really?
A. Who says?
B. So what if they do?
Your right politics is a dead street and to each will always have their own. Those line of storms will find a way to miss me again, wonder if the NWS will have back to back busted forecasts. They were calling for 2" of rain today.
Japan and Germany were planning to deploy a "Dirty Bomb" to the U.S. even earlier than the U.S. bomb developments; they did not yet have the technical skill to make a true nuclear device, but they were TRYING to do so. As I recall, there were problems and the vessel carrying the bomb was later sank. They already had the bomb armed and on the vessel for deployment. I think it was a submarine, but it's been like 2 years since I saw this on the History Channel.
Also, pretty much everyone used WMD in WWI and WWII and nearly every war since then.
Japan was dropping Bubonic Plague and other weaponized disease agents and poisons on China throughout the war.
Would you have said that about a past fanatic named hitler. Do you remember a guy named Chamberlain?
I sure hope you're wrong about that. If you're right, that would give me a lot of time to not be on the computer, so maybe it wouldn't be so bad after all. :)
Please the story of Lot, then the story of Elisha. Get back to us then...
Really? Are you ahmadinejad's brother? He's a terrorist. Nukes in a terrorist hands are not good. Think about it
Godwinned!!!
That answers neither of my questions.
Really dude? you know if they do...then Isreal hits them.. that starts a War.. and if they don't..Iran will use it against Isreal. Now be smart.. do you really think it's okay for a country to have a Nuke when they say they want to destroy another country off the face of the earth? If this was S Africa getting a nuke.. it wouldn't be that much pressure.. but it's Iran. Wake up
That looks like an attempt to answer my second question. What terrorist acts has Ahmadinnerjacket committed?
And again, who says he'll get a nuke if Obama is re-elected? He's had four years of Obama...where's his nuke?
We can create the conditions of the big bang in a super collider again and again. Seems repeatable to me.
Might be in your back yard if you keep being blind
I think it is you who needs to wake up. You appear to be having a bad dream.
Israel has a couple of hundred nukes. Even Ahmadinnerjacket can do that math. There will be no attack on Israel. It's sabre-rattling for the locals to cheer about, and that's all.
You fixed nothing. You merely stated what you want to be true for what is actually true. Happens all the time among anti-science types.
Physically doing some of the experiments in college where you calculate the energy, see how it behaves, what holds it & how..understanding the science & the math..seeing the results chemistry can bring forth with your own hands & eyes.. That makes my belief in the science behind AGW solid & substantial.
ran could care less about dying. It's all for Allah. They have the same mentality as a suicide bomber.
Yeah, I'm gonna stick that on my list of things to worry about...oh, right behind Sasquatch with a hand grenade. Yes, that's about where it belongs.
Name me one nation in the history of the world that voluntarily committed suicide. Because you are asking people to believe that Iran will do just that.
It's silly.
Says who and on the basis of what evidence?
August 2008: -274k jobs
August 2012: +96k jobs
I'd rather the economy be in rehab than in the shock trauma unit.
Anyway...
as for Leslie and Michael, the NHC track seem to have them holding a convention outside Newfoundland on Wednesday. I have to think there's a huge margin of error on that just because of storms being so close to each other. If Michael doesn't turn east fast enough to give some space that's gotta create problems for Newfoundland with Leslie.
Any mandate would have to be carefully worded to limit such loopholes and there would need to be someone to closely monitor and strictly limit how revenue from a carbon tax is spent. This is not something we should just make a half-ass attempt at integrating within our excessive government, this is something that we need to take very seriously.
Completely agree with you on the 16 Trillion, and the 1+ Trillion we are adding to that every year, under the past two administrations, government has gotten too big. I can think of several ridiculous taxes that need to be either cut or eliminated. (Alcohol, Tobacco, OBAMACARE, etc.)
There's a silver lining to investing in atmospheric CO2 extraction, namely in the amount of jobs that can be created and the benefit to our economy. Best part of it is that we won't have to make immediate and drastic changes to our modern lifestyles in order to begin cleaning up the mess we've made.
"Great" as in men that have made impacts on humanity and religion that are still relevant in the modern world today.
I am not here for an extensive religious debate nor to condemn any single religion for the mistakes of its followers and leaders (personally it is none of my business how other people choose to live their spiritual lives), but no religion is without blood on it's hands.
Maybe these things can only go so long or have so many participants before they're bound to turn into something akin to the monty python "argument" sketch.
None of this comment has any merit. It is just talking points. Both parties have issues but the left candidate is doing more than branding socialism as acceptable.
Nonsense. Politically, Obama is nearly indistinguishable from Bush or Romney. They all follow the same failed economic principles. Obama is nowhere near socialism.
As I stated, there are some similarities between the parties but none can compare to the current slate of liberals. Yes, Obama is a socialist. His idols where socialists, his ideals are socialist and his goal is socialism. He said it in his own book and his policies reflect as much. Those who think otherwise are blinded by the brand. I know people don't want to hear it. Did you watch the convention? It was all about free stuff and government programs. How do the left believe we are going to pay for all of it?
Did you know in 1980 our federal government's total spending was 947 billion dollars. Do you know what we will spend on education alone in 2012? 941 billion. Does the education rank of student reflect the money spent? No. What is one of the talking points of the Dems? More money for education. It is laughable!
New blog pleeeease Dr!
Luau time!
What socialist policies would those be, exactly? The one where he hands no strings attached cash to the banks that got us into this mess? lol
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