94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.
Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.
Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.
Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I do know that several of the models had a system hitting the northern gulf in a few days from now, this was back when Helene existed lol
or me 94L wont go out too sea nop am 100% sure on that
but it has been well documented that the ridge is strong enough that it could force 94L to move WSW for a time, therefore negating how far north it is now
A piece could split off and run NE along the front into Louisiana, which is what some models suggest will happen, but at least a piece should also be left behind as the upper trough to the north finally moves on, and with high pressure rebuilding to the north in its wake, that piece would likely be forced back westward into Mexico or Texas. It's kind of like a trough-split that ends up retrograding westward, like most systems that form on the tail-end of fronts in the gulf.
A short term response from the Overall tightening in the South and Se Quads with the inflow.
Also the forward quick pace tends to increase that as well,when they occur together.
You should know by now that Pat doesn't forecast :)
I was think maybe you are right track I was following on the lines of the GFS and the TVCN and I only put the intensity that high due to what the SHIPS was showing that is all there is no bias to it
dude look this is decent I am curently thinking that I am wrong with my model but I am not being bias with it track was just due to the GFS and TVCN and intensity was due to the SHIPS I don't think this will play out exactly like this and I don't think intensity will be this high ok
I like how you say "well documented" before it has happened lol. Not a single model shows a movement south of due west prior to the islands.
Crow like?
Ike was already a hurricane at that point not an invest big difference
check out the steering and several models the last few days I do believe showed the WSW movement before the islands
Well save for one State maybe. ; )
Yeah everyone is so preoccupied with an invest out in the Atlantic we could have a developing system right on our doorstep
It's a tough call. I'm in the Caribbean camp at this point though. I'm thinking a weak storm short term and then maybe it eventually gets into the Gulf or crosses the islands and heads for the SE.
Wouldn't this indicate steering that would move the system WSW?
the fact that the two top best models are showing a Caribbean track (GFS and EURO)is also a reason for my model showing what it does
its going back to its disorganized state.. convecction collapsing
What do you think. The answer should always be both. Always.
As does all the current convection along the Gulf Coast caused by all the shortwave troughs being spun off by the stalled front to the north. If you look at the latest IR, the Gulf convection is almost far enough south to begin merging with 95L.
Him traveling in August makes me mo nervous than aLong Port-a-let line at Jazz fest.
Well La is out of the woods on these two, so no worries for you.
I still think we've got Mexico 1 and Mexico 2 out there. But I'm being a bit optimistic if you live in the US, or a bit pessimistic if you live in Mexico.
Dr. M stated something last week how storms in that area can spin up fast due to the contour of the land mass there.....
Dmin, 94L is doing fine
Structure is far better than earlier today though. If it gets the convection back then it will be a TD.
except for mine I show a bit of a WSW-S of due W movement for the first 24-48hours on mine go back a page or two and you will is it
True. I would love to see some predictions from the regulars here on what and where 95 will be in two days.
I've already thrown my guess out...Mexico bound. Strictly a guess.
Pat, would you label those blobettes inside a larger blob? :)
yes it would
So another model in line with the others...A Caribbean storm is looking more likely
Another invest heading west...another prediction of a major hurricane hitting or affecting the Cayman Islands by wunderkidcayman. here we go again.
Blob-a-tite's ?
Please,do tell.
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