July 2012: hottest month in U.S. history
During the 1930s, a series of epic heat waves gripped the U.S., drying up the soil in an unprecedented drought that brought about the great Dust Bowl. The most intense heat hit during July 1936, which set a record for hottest month in U.S. history that stood for 76 years. That iconic record has now fallen, bested by 0.2°F during July 2012, which is now the hottest month in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) this week. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - July, and for the 12-month period August 2011 - July 2012. Twenty-four states were record warm for that 12-month period, and an additional twenty states were top-ten warm. The past fourteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring. The summer of 2012 is on pace to be a top-five warmest summer on record, and could beat the summer of 1936 as the warmest summer in U.S. history.
Figure 1. When the temperature peaked at an all-time high of 108° in Minneapolis, Minnesota on July 14, 1936, the want-ad staff at the 'St. Paul Daily News' was provided with 400 pounds of ice and two electric fans to cool the air in the press room. Photo from the Minnesota Historical Society.
Figure 2. Year-to-date temperature, by month, for 2012 (red), compared to the other 117 years on record for the contiguous U.S., with the five ultimately warmest years (orange) and five ultimately coolest years (blue) noted. The 2012 data are still preliminary. The year-to-date period of January - July was the warmest on record by a huge margin--1.0°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 3. For the fourth consecutive month, a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period was set in July 2012. Five of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Most extreme January - July period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 46% during the year-to-date January - July period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first seven months of 2012, and 74% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 16th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day heavy precipitation events were the 24th greatest in the 103-year record.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - July shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first seven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Little change to the U.S. drought during the past week
The great U.S. drought of 2012 remained about the same size and intensity over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, August 9. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought dropped slightly, from 63% to 62%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought stayed constant at 46%. The area of the country in the worst drought categories (extreme to exceptional drought) doubled from 10 percent last month to 22 percent this month. The extreme dryness and excessive heat devastated crops and livestock from the Great Plains to Midwest. During July, the area of the U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought was 57%, ranking as the 5th largest drought in U.S. history:
1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Dec 1939, 60%
3) Jul 1954, 60%
4) Dec 1956, 58%
5) Jul 2012, 57%
Video 1. This is Not Cool: Peter Sinclair's July 2012 video from the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media couples historical footage with contemporary clips and news segments. In one of the latter, for instance, NBC anchor Brian Williams opens the network’s flagship news program with the words: “It’s now official. We are living in one of the worst droughts of the past 100 years.” NASA scientist James Hansen is featured testifying about risks of “extreme droughts” in the nation’s breadbasket, and I'm featured in a few clips talking about the drought of 2012.
I'll have a new post by noon Saturday.
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post looking back at the great Heat Wave of July 1936.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That is an old image. The MJO is almost already here.
93 needs some warmer waters till then nothing it may be deactivated as well over the next 48 to 72 if nothing pops up
thanks looks like 94E is heading for CA
Some models have been hinting at a possible course into Baja California.
how far N dos 94E go
I know you are talking to me so I'll give you your answer and it is HELL NO
BUT I do see regeneration as a good possiblity in the Central Caribbean
I'm going to go a bit with the SHIPS with that I think if this does regenerate it could become close to a CAT 1 of 75MPH just S of Jamaica maybe a 70MPH TS unlike SHIPS that does bring it up to CAT 1
I will bring out My models soon also I'm including my NEW multi Model tracks too
nope
no low in the area only in upper levels
pressure here in Grand Cayman 1015mb and rising
intresting double circulation its like a spitting image of Ernesto when he was in that same area but the only this is that it is weaker
75.8 F currently as well.
: )
Powerful earthquake strikes northwestern Iran
DUBAI (Reuters) - Two strong earthquakes struck northwest Iran on Saturday and at least 50 people were taken to hospital, but there were no reports of any deaths, Iranian media said.
The U.S. Geological Survey measured the first quake at 6.4 magnitude and said it struck 60 km (37 miles) northeast of the city of Tabriz at a depth of 9.9. km (6.2 miles) at 12.34 GMT.
It said a second earthquake measuring 6.3 struck 49 km (30 miles) northeast of Tabriz 11 minutes later at a similar depth. Three more lesser aftershocks have followed since then.
The second quake struck near the town of Varzgan, Fars news agency said. "The quake was so intense that people poured into the streets through fear," it said.
Fifty people in the town had been taken to hospital, Fars said.
Other reports said the earthquake had broken telephone communications, making rescue efforts more problematic.
Iran is straddled by several major fault lines and has suffered several devastating earthquakes in recent times, the last which struck the city of Bam in 2003, killing more than 25,000 people.
(Reporting by Marcus George; Editing by Jon Hemming
Updated 8/11/2012 @ 13:55 UTC
M1.0 Flare
A long duration M1.0 solar flare took place this morning and was centered around Sunspot 1540. There was some interaction with Sunspot 1544 as well. Watch as plasma is magnetically pulled back in towards 1544 located to the east.
MAweatherboy1; here are the post earlier this morning that addressed your question about the Sun gash. 961,972,983,1215. I'll do some research and get back to you. This has been a interest of mine for a couple of years too. Don't get to crazy with this right now, theres nothing you can do about it anyway.
hold on wait watch what it does in the caribbean its not dead and gone yet it has just weakened to a tropical wave
Maybe pull a Bonnie.. regenerate to depression status in the western Caribbean, and then a storm in the Gulf. Don't personally know if any of the models are suggesting that, but so far its essentially taken the same path through into the islands and at the same intensity... now if it can just stay far enough away from south america. None of the models forecasted regeneration with Bonnie.
Nope.
1) The NHC.Advisory was for 3pmGMT. My historical mapping was for 12pmGMT.
2) The AutomatedTropicalCycloneForecasting file is the NHC's official report-of-record. When the NHC re-evaluates&alters the numbers on the ATCF report-of-record, I reflect that change on the next mapping.
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