Tropical Depression 5 forms; Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan; 115° in Oklahoma
Tropical Storm Watches are flying for much of the Lesser Antilles, as the islands await the arrival of Tropical Depression Five, which formed at 5 pm EDT today. The new depression is still fairly ragged looking, as seen on visible satellite loops. Heavy thunderstorm activity is only on the south side of the center, due to higher wind shear on the northern side of the storm. Wind shear over TD 5 is at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. TD 5 has one respectable low-level spiral band on its south side, but additional spiral bands are beginning to appear, and the areal coverage of the storm's heavy thunderstorms has increased markedly in the late afternoon hours. Water vapor satellite loops show that TD 5 has a reasonably moist environment. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year. The first Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate TD 5 Thursday afternoon to give us a better idea of its strength.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 5.
Forecast for TD 5
TD 5's west-northwest motion should bring its outer rain bands to Barbados early Friday morning, and high winds and heavy rain will spread over the rest of the Windward Islands by Friday afternoon. Since wind shear will be higher on the storm's north side, I expect the heaviest weather will be on the south side of TD 5, over the Windward Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. This should allow TD to become Tropical Storm Ernesto by Thursday. NHC is giving a 27% chance that TD 5 will become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, when it will be passing through the islands. The reliable computer models are not in good agreement on the future intensity of TD 5. A band of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with an upper level low lies to the north of TD 5, and our most reliable model, the ECMWF, predicts that this shear will extend down into the islands on Friday and Saturday, and tear TD 5 apart. However, the almost equally reliable GFS model predicts that this band of wind shear will remain north of TD 5, and the storm will have clear sailing for the next five days, with only moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting it. At this point, we'll have to wait and see how future model runs handle the shear forecast.
Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Saola hitting Taiwan at 2:30 am local time August 2, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.
Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons expected to make landfall in China on Thursday. Typhoon Saola hit northern Taiwan as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds near 3 am local time on August 2, 2012. Saola is predicted to hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Thursday as a Category 1 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Korea, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday as a Tropical Storm.
Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in Oklahoma continued on Wednesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 115° temperature recorded in Okmulgee, Oklahoma. This is not far from Oklahoma's state temperature record of 120°, set in in Tipton on June 27, 1994. Oklahoma City has hit 110° thus far this afternoon, which is the 3rd highest temperature measured in the city since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days were August 10 - 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 112° and 113°, respectively. Chandler, Enid, Guthrie, Norman, Chickasha, and Shawnee in Oklahoma have all hit 113° today.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Shear seems to be decreasing too. The anticylcone over it is strengthening.
MinimumPressure stayed at 1008millibars
MaximumSustainedWinds had held at 30knots(34.5mph)55.6km/h
Its vector changed from 284.4*WNW at 18.6mph(30km/h) to 279.3*West at 21.6mph(34.8km/h)
NEV-Nevis :: ANU-Antigua
PTP-Guadeloupe :: DOM-Dominica :: FDF-Martinique :: UVF-St.Lucia :: BGI-Barbados
The Easternmost dot is where 99L became a LOw
The WNWesternmost dot on the kinked line is where 99L became TD.5
The ESEasternmost dot on the longest line is TD.5's most recent position
The longest line is a straightline projection through TD.5's 2 most recent positions a coastline
On 1August6pmGMT, TD.5 had been headed for passage 6.3miles(10.2kilometres)SSWest of Antigua (ANU-dumbbell) before heading toward passage over Zion,Nevis (NEV-blob)
On 2August12amGMT, TD.5 had been headed for passage 2miles(3.2kilometres)North of Martinique (FDF-dumbbell)
On 2August6amGMT, TD.5 was heading for passage over Despinose,St.Lucia in ~1day3hours from now
Copy&paste axa, nev-17.134n62.542w, anu-17.004n61.833w-16.917n61.864w,ptp, fdf-14.877n61.139w-14.905n61.134w, dom, uvf, bgi, cru, gnd, tab, 9.3n39.8w- 9.7n41.7w- 10.3n43.6w- 10.9n45.3w- 11.4n46.7w- 12.0n48.2w, 12.0n48.2w-12.4n49.8w, 12.4n49.8w-12.7n51.7w, 12.4n49.8w-13.94n60.876w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.
Yea thunderstorms are lighting up again as we approach DMAX, but unfortunately, thunderstorms are also starting up toward it's west along that trough/ITCZ...not an ideal situation for TD5.
later, mississip
Agreed!
I think it does. :)
Grass begins to grow on the cracked bottom at Morse Reservoir in Noblesville, Ind., Wednesday, Aug. 1, 2012. The reservoir is six feet below normal levels. More than half of U.S. counties now are classified by the federal government as natural disaster areas mostly because of the drought. The U.S. Agriculture Department on Wednesday added 218 counties in a dozen states as disaster areas. That brings this year's total to 1,584 in 32 states, more than 90 percent of them because of the drought.
Full Story
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012
OF MOST CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE PRESENTLY AT 12.7N51.7W. T.D. FIVE EXPECTED TO
BECOME A STORM TODAY AND TRACK W INTO TROPICAL N ATLC THEN INTO
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRI WITH WINDS OF 50 GUST TO 60 KT.
ALTHOUGH FORECASTED TO REMAIN IN TRACK ACROSS CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.D. FIVE WINDS...BUILDING SEAS AND ASSOCIATED TSTMS MAY EXTEND
N OF GREATER ANTILLES AND INTRUDE INTO SW N ATLC SAT AND SUN.
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W ENHANCE FRESH E WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OF
AXIS. WAVE MOVE W ACROSS W CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA BY
SAT.
PRESENTLY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL
STORM TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES WINDWARD ISLANDS. HIGHEST WINDS
...30 GUSTS TO 40 KT...AND SEAS TO 10 FT ARE IN NE SEMICIRCLE.
WIND AND SEAS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND QUICKLY AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES ACROSS BASIN THROUGH MON.
That's awful. Looks like our reservoir last year. I hope some rain comes soon to those who need it. Of all the weather phenomena that I've experienced that drought was a bad one. You feel helpless because there's NOTHING you can do! But endure. Sad to read about it happening to other folks too. :(
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY
DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE
LATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. IF THIS IS
THE CASE...THEN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY.
LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 280/18. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD HEADING. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN
TO THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF/GFS OUTPUT ON DAYS 4-5.
UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN 4-5 DAYS...WHERE INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 12.8N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.3N 55.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 13.7N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 14.0N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 14.6N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 15.7N 71.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 16.7N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
I have to caution myself when complaining of the heat here in S. Fl...at least we're not in a drought like last year. This country's certainly has its challenges as of late. And even though the US hasn't had a major 'cane in almost 7 years (an all-time record), it'd be nice to add another year to that.
Yes it would be nice. And I've found myself happy with the 90 degree temps and insane humidity because it's so normal compared to last year. lol. Odd the things you miss sometime. :)
My neighbor has kin in Mabank and Gun Barrel City. Last year there was awful.
Noting the big, black, dry and dust-free area...no more SAL?
Ok I admit I had to look those up :) but yes it was bad up there. East Texas especially isn't used to being that dry. Down here (SETX) we usually average 60 inches of rain and we got 11 in 2011. Can't imagine that they'd have gotten anymore in NETX.
If the next wave develops early, it could be the end of SAL.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2012
.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE POSITION MUCH BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN MOVING INTO THE WEAKENED AS A TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY TO SLIGHTLY LOWER THOUGH RIGHT AT CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEAK EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 30 PCT WITH BROKEN RIDGE OVER THE AREA. 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES A PIECE OF THE TROUGH WILL GET PINCHED OFF ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TRACK WEST. SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER AND DID NOT ADJUST POPS FOR THIS.
FOR THE TROPICS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST TOWARDS THE CARRIBEAN. THE DEPRESSION IS
STILL STRUGGLING THIS MORNING AND MAY EVEN BE DOWNGRADED BACK TO A
TROPICAL WAVE DEPENDING ON CONDITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH
WILL BE SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE ONCE SUN RISES. CONDITIONS DO HOWEVER
LOOK TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER IN TIME. THE
SYSTEM COULD BE STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN THE CENTRAL CARRIBEAN W/IN
5 DAYS PER NHC. BEYOND THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST
THE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SO WHILE NOT AN IMMEDIATE THREAT ATTM OR ANY TIME SOON...STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF RESULTING IN A BETTER FLOW FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BUILDING LATE IN THE WEEK MOSTLY FROM INCREASED
SWELL FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO THE TD 5 MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIB/SW GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. ALSO EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF STRONG IMPULSES FROM THE NORTH
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. 32/EE
3 hours ago
Current
Looks like he is getting better organized again and convection is firing over the coc again.
Outgoing long wave radiation.
Also see the MJO article.
"...the active phase of the MJO tracked using the degree of outgoing long wave radiation which is measured by infrared-sensing geostationary weather satellites. The lower the amount of outgoing long wave radiation, the stronger the thunderstorm complexes, or convection, is within that region."
.LONG TERM...
[Sunday through Wednesday] By Sunday the Atlantic Ridge
strengthens over the region. A trof associated with a Low moving
east through the Great Lakes will be making its way into the
Miss. river valley. By Monday and Tuesday PoP chances elevate to
between 40 and 50 percent due to added moisture from the tropics
and the arrival of the trof into our CWA. Temperatures can be
expected to reach the mid 90s in most areas and dip into the low
to mid 70s each night. Current GFS and Euro runs keep Tropical
Depression Five well to the south of our area through the period.
Both models bring what would be Ernesto into the Yucatan Peninsula
on Thursday on a westerly track. At this time it appears that the
quick exit of the eastern seaboard trof on Tuesday and subsequent
rebuilding of the ridge over the southeast will keep this system
on its current westerly track.
I will be cut-off from the internet for the next 48 hours. Hopefully nothing interesting happens to this storm while I'm not there to see it.
OOOOHH. That was neat. Thanks. :) Would explain how/why that model looks like that.
Others have said it, and it's true: the regular summer rainfall pattern has become increasingly disrupted over the past several years. But I will say this: at least we're not like Oklahoma or Arkansas; I imagine today's drought report/outlook is going to look pretty dismal.
True. I've lived here my whole life; weather patterns definately seem different. Used to be you could expect rain every afternoon like clockwork - now, not so much.
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 AUG 2012 Time : 091500 UTC
Lat : 12:48:40 N Lon : 52:40:26 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1009.9mb/ 37.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.1 1.7
Center Temp : -56.1C Cloud Region Temp : -43.3C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.8 degrees
************************************************* ***
Viewing: 1151 - 1201
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