Tropical Depression 5 forms; Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan; 115° in Oklahoma
Tropical Storm Watches are flying for much of the Lesser Antilles, as the islands await the arrival of Tropical Depression Five, which formed at 5 pm EDT today. The new depression is still fairly ragged looking, as seen on visible satellite loops. Heavy thunderstorm activity is only on the south side of the center, due to higher wind shear on the northern side of the storm. Wind shear over TD 5 is at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. TD 5 has one respectable low-level spiral band on its south side, but additional spiral bands are beginning to appear, and the areal coverage of the storm's heavy thunderstorms has increased markedly in the late afternoon hours. Water vapor satellite loops show that TD 5 has a reasonably moist environment. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year. The first Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate TD 5 Thursday afternoon to give us a better idea of its strength.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 5.
Forecast for TD 5
TD 5's west-northwest motion should bring its outer rain bands to Barbados early Friday morning, and high winds and heavy rain will spread over the rest of the Windward Islands by Friday afternoon. Since wind shear will be higher on the storm's north side, I expect the heaviest weather will be on the south side of TD 5, over the Windward Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. This should allow TD to become Tropical Storm Ernesto by Thursday. NHC is giving a 27% chance that TD 5 will become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, when it will be passing through the islands. The reliable computer models are not in good agreement on the future intensity of TD 5. A band of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with an upper level low lies to the north of TD 5, and our most reliable model, the ECMWF, predicts that this shear will extend down into the islands on Friday and Saturday, and tear TD 5 apart. However, the almost equally reliable GFS model predicts that this band of wind shear will remain north of TD 5, and the storm will have clear sailing for the next five days, with only moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting it. At this point, we'll have to wait and see how future model runs handle the shear forecast.
Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Saola hitting Taiwan at 2:30 am local time August 2, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.
Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons expected to make landfall in China on Thursday. Typhoon Saola hit northern Taiwan as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds near 3 am local time on August 2, 2012. Saola is predicted to hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Thursday as a Category 1 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Korea, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday as a Tropical Storm.
Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in Oklahoma continued on Wednesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 115° temperature recorded in Okmulgee, Oklahoma. This is not far from Oklahoma's state temperature record of 120°, set in in Tipton on June 27, 1994. Oklahoma City has hit 110° thus far this afternoon, which is the 3rd highest temperature measured in the city since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days were August 10 - 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 112° and 113°, respectively. Chandler, Enid, Guthrie, Norman, Chickasha, and Shawnee in Oklahoma have all hit 113° today.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It wasnt particularly dry air, that was the culpret.
Divergent shear was cuased by convection firing in the ITCZ and began to enhance some westerlies over the top of it, and the fact that the dry air lying to the north was just conviently there, didnt help the matter.
Keep in mind, Gilbert was in September and should of turned NW with troughs that time of year and it didn't, now it's early August and trough gonna pick it up?
There are novels about them?
Which is why there is "Tropical Storm Watches" out.
Yeah.. What he said
No, not that much. My very long-range estimate would probably be Louisiana.
Through day 5 at least. And GFS doesn't show it ever getting into the main GOM (operational member). Intensity, not so much (knock on wood).
NOT OFFICIAL
the word in the blog is he had to teach ya what was north south east and west, that ya was that clueless and after he schooled ya with forcasting ya baled on him.....just the word in the blog here i don't really know what happened....
The periphery of the ridge is what will cause it to lift north, and what might drive it into the wester gulf, is the fact that there might be a ridge builing in from the plains down to the south, briefly that might give it a shove west.
Completely different set of weather circumstances with Gilbert. Other than general formation location...Gilbert is an Apple, TD5 is an Orange.
Imagine how this blog would react if that situation actually panned out. 0_o
Its almost DMAX right now -in that region-, within the next 2 hours.
i hunt in hill country and don't look forward to single digits during winter there....
It doesn't get quite the cold in Houston.
Far from it.
Popcorn convection is one of the usual indicators that the storm is going to have a good DMAX.
Agreed.
Yeahhhhh. Good luck with that ;)
Good night everyone. I will check in briefly around noon tomorrow.
The discussion reads, in part, as follows
" EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE
TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
AS NOTED IN VARIOUS WATER VAPOR PRODUCTS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS."
you sound like my psych dr..lol really show me a storm that hits the upper gom when cold fronts start moving thru....classic example look what made wilma head due east...
Its supposed to be mid morning, for DMAX, right?
Im tired, what time is it?
For the first part of it's life, but you got to remember. Different year, different set-up
You're right. It's after midnight and peaks just before sunrise.
EDIT: Sunset --> Sunrise.
yeah i hear ya what yr did galvaston and nola get the big snow storm the day after x-mas 2004??
Correct. Dmax where TD5 is will not occur for at least another 5 to 6 hours
684. HurricaneDean07 11:08 PM AST on August 01, 2012
If in my area is 11pm, around that area must be around 1am.
Quite a few hours till dmax, a good indicator of when dmax is near is the CV islands floater.
When you see the sun here, dmax will be near for TD 5.
Actually just before sunrise
Correct. We are actually just now a few hours past dmin in that area of the world.
Sunrise ??
Mid-morning = 6am, Close enough.
Goodnight everyone.
Corrected. XD
i think that is where la lines up in the gulf....
You and your typos.
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