African tropical wave 99L slowly organizing
A tropical wave (Invest 99L) near 9°N 41°W, halfway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves westward at 10 - 15 mph. Visible satellite loops show that the disturbance now has a moderate amount of poorly-organized heavy thunderstorms that continue to slowly increase in intensity and areal coverage. There is no surface circulation, but some counter-clockwise rotation of the large-scale cloud pattern is evident. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment. The latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies to the north of 99L and is currently not affecting the storm. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.
Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light through Friday, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. However, a band of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with the subtropical jet stream lies just to the north of 99L, and it would not be a surprise to see 99L experience some higher shear conditions than are currently forecast. The farther north 99L gets, the higher the shear it will experience, and the SHIPS model is predicting shear in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for Saturday - Sunday, as the storm works its way to 15°N. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L. There are some major differences in the predicted forward speed of 99L, with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting the storm will reach the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the GFS predicting a later arrival, on Saturday. At 8 am Tuesday, NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. I expect the storm will begin having trouble with tendrils of dry air reaching down from the north at times this week, but give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday morning. The long-range fate of 99L next week is uncertain. A track west to west-northwest through the Caribbean, or to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast are both possible. The storm is less likely to survive if it heads northwest towards the U.S.
Extreme heat in the Central U.S.
The withering heat in America's heartland continued on Monday, with high temperatures of 112° recorded in Winfield, Kansas and Searcy, Arkansas. Little Rock, Arkansas hit 111°, their 3rd hottest temperature ever record, behind the all time record of 114° set just last year on August 3, and the 112° reading of 7/31/1986. Wichita and Coffeyville in Kansas both hit 111° Monday, and in Oklahoma, Enid, Tulsa Jones Airport, and Chandler all topped out at 111°. Carr Creek, Missouri hit 110°, the hottest temperature measured in the state so far this year. Highs temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday in this region could reach 110° again, as the most extreme heat this week will stay focused over Oklahoma and surrounding states.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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LANDSLIDES triggered by heavy rains have killed eight people in Indonesia's eastern Maluku province, a local official says.
"Eight people were killed in three different locations in Ambon city," said Brory Tjokro, the city's search and rescue chief, adding that a further two people were missing.
"Heavy rains that poured all night caused landslides in the locations. Ambon city was also flooded," he said.
In June, three people were killed in the town when they were buried in a landslide caused by heavy rains.
Floods and landslides are common in Indonesia, which is prone to frequent bursts of heavy rain.
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
BECOME LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH...SCATTERED FOR CENTRAL LOCATIONS...
BUT REMAIN ISOLATED IN THE FAR SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...SCATTERED DURING
THE DAYTIME AND ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
$$
99L is still in its formative stages and should have no difficulty clearing the SA coast. Entry into the Caribbean near 12 still looks like a reasonable scenario to me. Classification as a TD could come later today if the overall organization and convection does not wane during the heat of the day. The NHC will want to see some consistency in this regard I would think.
Upper level conditions near the system are not ideal with shear values of 20 to 30 knots immediately to its North which may slow the organization process some during the day. All in all though we will likely see this continue to get its act together.
LOL..now Wash, you know better..
It's likely there will be a strengthening tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean at that time. Pay close attention to The National Hurricane Center when they start advisories on this system.
I think the NHC is just waiting for this current blow up to persist through a little longer. It was starting to develop an anti-cyclone yesterday and judging by satellite representation it looks as if it is ventilating very well in 3 of its 4 quadrants. 99L has been steadily organizing the last 48 hours. So, at the least I'd say we will see the percentages go up by tonight, if not by tonight, then by tomorrow morning we should be looking at a Tropical Depression.
Being at 10N leaves it a place to where it is very difficult to develop westerly winds. It needs to gain a bit more in latitude, but it should do that in time. Being at 10N does make this system very difficult to turn out to sea. I wonder what the percentages of storms that form in the area of 99L are at making landfall. I bet it is high, not just for the islands, but all those beyond as well.
AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
TD status imminent...
99L appears to be close to becoming a TD or TS Ernesto later today. I see there is plenty of speculation as to where this system is going.
The previous runs of the M.O.D. (model of doom) had been pretty consistant on bringing an Ivan type tracking system across the southern Caribbean, before it turned WNW towards the NW Caribbean.
The latest 1300 run of the MOD has shifted slightly northward, and Ernesto tracking west to WNW as a strong Cat 1 hurricane through the central Lesser Antilles. MOD brings Erneato towards, and possibly over Jamaica as a strong Cat 2 as it tracks WNW torwards the Caymans. Ernsto bombs as a Cat 4 in NW Caribbean.
MOD turns Ernesto NW towards the Yucatan Channel, and at the end of the run has a 920 mb hurricane sitting in the central GOM.
MOD is nearly always correct.
Ive seen that happen time and time and time again!
One more 5 knots bump, and it's a tropical storm winds. Is 99L a close circulation right now?
And more north in latitude than the 10.2N.
LOL
And it jumped .5N...
Well... I've never heard of "MOD" before.
A 5pm
B 11pm
C 5Am tomorrow
D 11Am tomorrow
A.
The low appears to have responded to a weakness just to its North by lifting some but the track should resume a more Westerly motion in the next 12 hours or so IMO.
c
B
they also changed 10.2N 47.0W to 10.7N 46.9W looking at past track still moving W-N of due W
AL, 99, 2012080100, , BEST, 0, 99N, 432W, 25, 1009, LO,
AL, 99, 2012080106, , BEST, 0, 103N, 450W, 25, 1009, LO,
AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO
MOD has had the best handle of 99L so far.
To any of you smart gals and fellas,where is that new england trof supposed to be in 8-9 days and will it have the strength to create a weakness for Ernesto to go north if he is in the mid/eastern caribbean?
Nice banding. It looks like a TD to me. Maybe special update coming soon.
That new position means it will not move over our friends in Trinidad & Tobago.
XTRP!
LOL!!!! Morning TA13...hahhahahah!
That's an old jibe at a model that has been upgraded.
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