Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L poorly organized, but may develop
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Southern Gulf of Mexico (designated 96L by NHC Thursday afternoon) is a threat to become a tropical depression this weekend, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance is bringing occasional heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Top winds measured in the surrounding ocean areas this morning were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at the Yucatan Basin buoy between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas show a ship that measured sustained winds of 30 mph near the western tip of Cuba this morning. Satellite-based surface wind measurements from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, show no signs of a surface circulation. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is less organized than it was Thursday evening, with only a little low-level spin apparent, and a modest area of disorganized thunderstorms. The decrease in organization is probably due to the moderate to high levels of wind shear of 15 - 25 knots over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon, but this mission will probably be cancelled due to the disturbance's lack of organization.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance 96L in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Saturday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression; NHC gave 96L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. By Sunday, wind shear is predicted to increase, limiting 96L's potential for intensification. Where the storm might go is anybody's guess. The GFS model has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Sunday or Monday. However, an ensemble of forecasts from the model created by running the model with slight perturbations to the initial conditions shows a wide range of possible tracks, both to the east over Florida, and to the west towards Texas and Louisiana (Figure 2.) The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that the trough will not be strong enough to pull 96L northeastwards across Florida. The ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing the disturbance westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Thursday. The UKMET model also favors a track west towards Texas. The NOGAPS model takes 96L to the northwest into Louisiana/Texas by Monday.
Figure 2. Which way will 96L go? The GFS model, when run at low resolution with 20 slightly different perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate an ensemble of different forecasts, shows two distinct possibilities: a sharp east turn to move over Florida, or a west or northwest motion towards Louisiana or Texas. The high-resolution official GFS forecast is shown in white.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Well, bouys will be bouys...
That's quite remarkable. After 2005, I didn't think we would be breaking any records pertaining to the numbers for a long time.
It unlikely this system moves west regardless of the models. A more Eastern gulf storm than anything else. The High wont be that strong or east to pick this up it a better chance it will just feel the trough and escape east before the High has a chance to grab it.
Visible Sat. GOM
Good way to see COC....Check the "fronts" box
and click "zoom" then click on the L in the sattelite
presentation until it zooms in tight....
Gulf breeze proper
Was in Negril on Sunday and experienced the beginnings of this system...its following me.
I dropped by for a visit yesterday afternoon and it was like a Preschool playground.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
FLC086-231345-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0039.120623T1144Z-120623T1345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
744 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
* UNTIL 945 AM EDT
* AT 740 AM EDT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THE
MEDIA REPORTED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN KENDALL EARLIER THIS
MORNING. DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS THE AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF STREET AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS,
STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW
LYING SPOTS. RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS IN CANALS
AND DITCHES.
LAT...LON 2591 8044 2591 8035 2572 8036 2571 8046
Lol
It'll be even worse today because now the northern Gulf coast is more in play.
Will we know by Monday morning?
And NHC will probably issue advisories and stuff and start favouring specific people. Imho they will go the central route and go into Louisiana though.
Dennis, hit the western panhandle as a cat 3 if I recall correctly.
Ha! Is BayNews9 wishcasting?
They says they are favoring texas
It's pointless now to keep arguing over where this is going to go with any confidence. Anywhere in the gulf is still in play now.
Yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see TS watches/warnings from Grand Isle, LA. to Indian Pass, FL.(near Apalachicola) posted this afternoon or tonight.
And this is a "normal" year..... and in reality it appears it is going to be a "active" year instead.
4 named storms before July is big..
Good morning everyone,
I am going to try and take a peek in here from time to time today while at work.
It looks like no one model agrees where 96L is going...
and isn't the spelling going to be "Debby"????
I thought I saw some other variations earlier back (Not CyberTeddy)
enjoy your weekend!
I stayed away most the day because of. Seems a little better at night.
Westward*
AL, 96, 2012062312, , BEST, 0, 254N, 876W, 30, 1002, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 280, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
THE NHC SAID THEY FAVORED A WESTWARD MOTION METEOROLOGICALLY
Soon to be the Declaration of a named storm me thinks
Did anything ever come out of that set of pink French Doors on the Navy site?
Bully for you.
Yeah but the Northern Gulf is closer and the further north it moves the closer it gets to the Northern Gulf Coast..once the system takes that westward track assuming it does..then the watches and warnings will be modified from the east and be issued west.
Let's see if they renumber it.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
700 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-231400-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
700 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
.NOW...
...SPRINKLES OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...
THROUGH 10 AM...SPRINKLES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION
OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
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