Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L poorly organized, but may develop
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Southern Gulf of Mexico (designated 96L by NHC Thursday afternoon) is a threat to become a tropical depression this weekend, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance is bringing occasional heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Top winds measured in the surrounding ocean areas this morning were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at the Yucatan Basin buoy between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas show a ship that measured sustained winds of 30 mph near the western tip of Cuba this morning. Satellite-based surface wind measurements from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, show no signs of a surface circulation. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is less organized than it was Thursday evening, with only a little low-level spin apparent, and a modest area of disorganized thunderstorms. The decrease in organization is probably due to the moderate to high levels of wind shear of 15 - 25 knots over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon, but this mission will probably be cancelled due to the disturbance's lack of organization.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance 96L in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Saturday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression; NHC gave 96L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. By Sunday, wind shear is predicted to increase, limiting 96L's potential for intensification. Where the storm might go is anybody's guess. The GFS model has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Sunday or Monday. However, an ensemble of forecasts from the model created by running the model with slight perturbations to the initial conditions shows a wide range of possible tracks, both to the east over Florida, and to the west towards Texas and Louisiana (Figure 2.) The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that the trough will not be strong enough to pull 96L northeastwards across Florida. The ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing the disturbance westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Thursday. The UKMET model also favors a track west towards Texas. The NOGAPS model takes 96L to the northwest into Louisiana/Texas by Monday.
Figure 2. Which way will 96L go? The GFS model, when run at low resolution with 20 slightly different perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate an ensemble of different forecasts, shows two distinct possibilities: a sharp east turn to move over Florida, or a west or northwest motion towards Louisiana or Texas. The high-resolution official GFS forecast is shown in white.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What Direction is that band heading? Will it make it to the otherside of the state and cause some "Thunder" for Miami?
We will see in the morning but looks like when the models start there run with the new position things might change my opinion
Correct and looking at the satellite it seem a slight flare up of convection to the NE of that COC lets see if it can grow and wrap around the COC.
96L Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Also, shear in the eastern gulf is decreasing now we could have Debby tomorrow evening (5pm) after Recon.
Shear Tendency
There is a better way; but sorry to say this is happening every day around the world. It is very depressing, try not to let it get you too down. Easy to say hard to do.
Plan on BBQ tomorrow, just sit back and relax tonight. It might even make you feel better if you go back and read some of wild entries posted earlier on this blog, it will certainly distract you if nothing else.
Thanks for taking the time to explain this so clearly for those of us with less experience.
Cool. Thanks. I'm thinking 90% at next two with a TD/TS in the morn at this rate. Of course that can change on DMIN
Dmin has already passed for today...Dmax is coming, just before dawn.
*sigh* I was hoping for 3.
Kinda sad. About 4months ago I was going to a basketball tournament and we witnessed a bank robbery the cops fired two shots at the truck (who almost hit us) but the guy didn't stop he drove 15 miles and wrecked he was only 26 and went to my high school
I thought I saw on here that the LLC was already stacked? No?
I heard about that. I dot know how much evidence will be left
"The low pressure area in the Gulf appears to be organizing tonight just north of Cancun. It's likely that Tropical Depression #4 will form there on Saturday. The long-term forecast, however, is VERY uncertain. The center of the system appears to be a little south and east of where the computer simulations (the models) thought it would be this evening, so that puts question marks on their solutions. But beyond that, the upper-air pattern forecast of the most reliable models is quite different. In the short term, the upper pattern looks favorable for some strengthening while the system is in the southern Gulf. As it drifts north, however, the pattern becomes marginal and would likely keep the system from getting too strong. Still, by Sunday, there's a decent chance the system (TD #4 or Tropical Storm Debby) will be strong enough to cause dangerous waves and water rise on the northern Gulf coast. After that, forecasts dramatically diverge, with three scenarios. The American GFS model crawls a fairly weak system over Florida early in the weak with drenching rain and gusty winds. The European model takes a strong system - maybe a hurricane - west toward Texas or Mexico midweek. In addition, other American hurricane models keep the system very weak in the Gulf. Over the past few years, the European model has been the most accurate, but it has also been completely wrong on occasion. Once the system consolidates, the hope is that the models will come together so a more confident forecast can be made. The bottom line for now, everybody on the Gulf coast needs to stay informed this weekend, and be aware that a large circulation is going to cause dangerous conditions in the water and along some part of the coast over the next few to several days."
You'd be surprised at how 8-year olds talk to other kids online while playing X-box too.
link?
There is evident rotation at around 21.5 N, 86.5 W.
To..?
It is
My friends little brother who's in second grade currently says stuff that I don't know about.. And as you know by our previous discussion im not ignorant to that stuf
I think Don got evapd even before he made landfall.
This summer is a winter wonderland paradise compared to last. Only thing we need is a LOT of water to fill up the lakes and aquifers, and we'll be A-OK. [In case you're listening, Debby, the total we were thinking about is ~25" over Centex, even all in one day is fine]
No. No, I don't know what you are saying.
Seems like, although it could just be mid-level.
Evening KOG.. the season has started :)
Long time no see!
Interesting. GT,that statement was on Facebook?
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