Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L poorly organized, but may develop
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Southern Gulf of Mexico (designated 96L by NHC Thursday afternoon) is a threat to become a tropical depression this weekend, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance is bringing occasional heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Top winds measured in the surrounding ocean areas this morning were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at the Yucatan Basin buoy between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas show a ship that measured sustained winds of 30 mph near the western tip of Cuba this morning. Satellite-based surface wind measurements from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, show no signs of a surface circulation. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is less organized than it was Thursday evening, with only a little low-level spin apparent, and a modest area of disorganized thunderstorms. The decrease in organization is probably due to the moderate to high levels of wind shear of 15 - 25 knots over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon, but this mission will probably be cancelled due to the disturbance's lack of organization.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance 96L in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Saturday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression; NHC gave 96L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. By Sunday, wind shear is predicted to increase, limiting 96L's potential for intensification. Where the storm might go is anybody's guess. The GFS model has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Sunday or Monday. However, an ensemble of forecasts from the model created by running the model with slight perturbations to the initial conditions shows a wide range of possible tracks, both to the east over Florida, and to the west towards Texas and Louisiana (Figure 2.) The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that the trough will not be strong enough to pull 96L northeastwards across Florida. The ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing the disturbance westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Thursday. The UKMET model also favors a track west towards Texas. The NOGAPS model takes 96L to the northwest into Louisiana/Texas by Monday.
Figure 2. Which way will 96L go? The GFS model, when run at low resolution with 20 slightly different perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate an ensemble of different forecasts, shows two distinct possibilities: a sharp east turn to move over Florida, or a west or northwest motion towards Louisiana or Texas. The high-resolution official GFS forecast is shown in white.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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this image doesnt show it, neither does water vapor
little over 15mins ago:
And looks to be on the rise!
I don't know much about the steering layers.
Levi, do you think it matters much that the center is (may be\looks to be) consolidating a little further east than where the models were initiated, on the ultimate track?
I'm just messing with you
AVN is just a buzz-kill. Lol. It always brings you down to earth.
Shortwave is very sensitive to changes from dusk to dark, so don't be too alarmed at the dark blue.
But the inner bluish-white does very well jive with the radar loops if you overlay them.
You've been a member since 2004? Now that's impressive.
Most of Killearn is underground wired. But very tall mature oaks and pines often wreak havoc on property in strong T storms
Good night everyone, I think 80 or 90% at 2AM TWO with a renumber late morning/early afternoon tomorrow.
good for you!
It's funny that I mentioned those models when they had an eastward bias and was told they were unreliable.
Unless the system get it's act together before recon goes,they may wait for the plane data in the afternoon to make the next move.
that's what showed up on shortwave too; it's at 80% as of 8 p.m. tonight
City of Tally allowed that area to be overbuilt in the last 10 years without upgrading the power grid heading out that way.
Somebody farts on the I-10 overpass and the power goes out.
agree, it's not going anywhere fast, so no need to rush anything unless it becomes blatantly obvious it needs an upgrade. Anything borderline, and they should wait, IMO.
This is never good. Glad you are safe.
*points at RTSPlayer*
First, there must be a storm consolidated around co-operating centers. Meaning the centers of circulations are on top of each other in the atmosphere, the essential one being at the surface. This has not happened yet. When it does, the storm can build upward. The center location and the intensity the storm builds will affect how it accepts steering from ridges and troughs in the neighborhood. Northern hemisphere tropical cyclones naturally want to move NW unless blocked by a ridge, or pulled elsewhere by a trough as Chris so dramatically was a few days ago. Depending on the strength and location of both, a storm can "miss a trough," and have to wait for another.
My answer to the question you asked is no one knows right now, and one can only guess by looking at the models, and later on by watching sats, especially water vapor loops to see the trough movement. Current weather maps issued by NWS and some learning institutions can be helpful in seeing the actual troughs and ridges on paper, so to speak. The models are fallible, as the true movements of the atmosphere can be slower or faster than the models predict them to be - until the actual atmospheric movement is close at hand.
The ridge building here where I live in the "middle" (as an East Coast Friend affectionately calls my area) seems like it'll be a strong one and will be centered this weekend over my state, Oklahoma. Local NWS mets do not expect the ridge to move much under the influence of low pressure on Monday and do not expect anything but hot, hot hot through at least next week Friday. The presence and strength of this ridge will come into play in the overall steering. Once there is a storm.
:)
Perhaps that's more information and more simple than what you wanted or needed, but maybe it will be helpful to someone else, if not to you.
Southwest Florida gonna get hammered again. From just Radar observations,it looked like Naples got rain most the day,heavy at times. This new band looks very impressive and if the Thunderstorms don't wane on their way to the coast,a lot more is enroute. Any Naples residents in here? How much rain have ya got?
the guy that died was only 25
i scubbed the BBQ just sitting here watching the police investigation taking it in
why are these young men settling there beefs with guns is beyond me
has to be a better way sad
Thats what I see also.
Shear is falling ahead of it so once it gets some good convergence going the ball should start rolling again.
The latest ASCAT hints at some decent surface winds flowing in, so convergence shouldn't take long to start up again.
I'm not the same person, but this is mostly common knowledge.
If it goes to Tejas,they better not screw it up like they did to The Don. Did they even get 1/2 inch of rain?
Tropics Chat
Cool. Do I get a 2nd on the COC/LLC being at 86.5/23.
If so I would think models would initialize a little further east.
What Direction is that band heading? Will it make it to the otherside of the state and cause some "Thunder" for Miami?
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