Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting TomTaylor:
Isn't it easy for us to say, sitting on our butts behind our computers?

The forecasting situation for the NWS compared to us Wunderbloggers is very different. The NWS is the official authority and millions of people rely on what they say. Flipping around their forecasts every other day would result in a loss of the public's trust and can endanger the lives of the people.

So while the NWS has lives, trust, and credibility of the entire public on the line, us Wunderbloggers have literally nothing on the line, except maybe pride (credibility too - but among who? Mostly anonymous internet users).

Well said. The NHC are not in a contest or a competition. Their job is to save lives and property.

The mission statement of the National Hurricane Center: “To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.”

Quoting LargoFl:
wait..one is 100 nautical miles away from the yucatan..the other one..is ON the yucatan..cant be in two places at the same time..and the second one came from a tropical wave

You realize most tropical cyclones form from "Tropical Waves," right?

This entire complex is a tropical wave.

Quoting PackManWx:
when is the trough expected to swing through that may scoop up the storm and move it east?

after that happens, is there anything else that could move it east, or is a west/north path what it will be?

It is forecasted by most models to slowly meander around the Central Gulf before eventually heading West and into, or around, Texas.

The only global dynamic model that thinks otherwise is the GFS which drags the system out of the Gulf to the NE across Florida and back into the open Atlantic off the East Coast.

Quoting LargoFl:
...........did i see this right,#1 will be a tropical something, AND #2 will ALSO be a tropical something in 12-24 hours???..are we looking at TWO systems?

Hm. Is the Navy suggesting more than one storm? Just parsing #1

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.6N 88.3W TO 26.0N 88.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING***S*** AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221545Z INDICATES THAT ***A**** CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 88.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.

Note the plural on 'warnings' and the us of 'A' instead of 'THE' circulation center.

ATCF is in agreement:

AL, 96, 2012062300, , BEST, 0, 233N, 879W, 30, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 225, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Quoting LargoFl:

Get any rain by you today Largo?

right...but the GFS is assuming the trough going across the conus will scoop it up and carry it NE

when is that going to happen? B/c once that happens, won't we pretty much know which direction it is going? It either moves east with the trough, or is missed by the trough and heads west?

Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Due north of the northeastern most tip is absolutely much further east than any of the models initialized. Don't be surprised to see models trend further east in the coming runs.

They were all almost due north of what I'd consider about the center of the Yucatan.

Just look:

It doesn't really matter at this point. The low/storm will end up in nearly the same exact spot in the Gulf of Mexico anyways. What matters if how the trough/ridge acts after 96L meanders for a few days.

I noticed the barges and dredging machinery for the beach restoration project on Sand Key and Belleair Beach were relocated to the south side of Clearwater pass this afternoon.

23.3N, 87.9W

Bada Boom

Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Debby will take her time to tighten up and get going. Then it'll be to late for some rig evacuations, and we'll be riding out another Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 Hurricane. Fun Fun....... They don't even start talking about leaving until it hits TS strength. IT's already raining here, 96l is so spread out.

This is always a problem when storms develop quickly close to an area that needs to be evacuated. In this case, this invest will develop slowly based on all the graphs that have already been posted here. Once this system starts to develop I'm sure the TS evacuation plan will be started. Don't get me wrong, I do understand that it will occur during rough seas; but until they get a direction on this storm no one knows whether to evac the rigs on the east or the west of the gulf.

spinnin'

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It doesn't really matter at this point. The low/storm will end up in nearly the same exact spot in the Gulf of Mexico anyways. But matters if how the trough/ridge acts after 96L meanders for a few days.

possible stall too not that its moving much now anyway

Quoting ILOVESTORMS23:
STOP PLEASE last hour its more to the west this hour more to the east next hour more to the north please stop no one has a clue where its going until it makes landfall somewhere

Of course we don't have a bloody clue, but it gives us something to talk about

Quoting Tazmanian:
this blog has been troll city today i wish the admins would come out from hiding and clen this blog up a little

Or just use the - , +, ! , hide, ignore features, and take control for yourself.

Hmm both hwrf n gfdl shifted west

Quoting weatherh98:


spinnin'

Oh, yeah, she's really cranking up in the last couple of frames there.

Chevron outta Fourchon,Venice and Morgan City are scheduling evacs from Both Locales, Helo and crew Boats.

PHI is flying to Sunset .

Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Oh, yeah, she's really cranking up in the last couple of frames there.

yes definitley. now it needs sustained convection.

Quoting tideWalker:
I noticed the barges and dredging machinery for the beach restoration project on Sand Key and Belleair Beach were relocated to the south side of Clearwater pass this afternoon.

yes i saw that when i was down there today,just being prepared i guess, clearwater beach was booming with people today,wonder if the marathon sunday will go off, given the uncertainty of this possible storm track.

Quoting Patrap:
23.3N, 87.9W

Bada Boom

Mid level is only offset from LLC by about 1 degree now; Closest it's ever been.

Quoting TomTaylor:
Isn't it easy for us to say, sitting on our butts behind our computers?

The forecasting situation for the NWS compared to us Wunderbloggers is very different. The NWS is the official authority and millions of people rely on what they say. Flipping around their forecasts every other day would result in a loss of the public's trust and can endanger the lives of the people.

So while the NWS has lives, trust, and credibility of the entire public on the line, us Wunderbloggers have literally nothing on the line, except maybe pride (credibility too - but among who? Mostly anonymous internet users).

Smug comments (like this one) are easy to make.

Out for now

Quoting Articuno:
could "debbie" look like a bigger, weaker version of Opal?

Opal was in Oct.

little vortex got spat out from what appears to be the main mid level spin check out 24N 87.8W on this loop

Link

Quoting TomTaylor:
Isn't it easy for us to say, sitting on our butts behind our computers?

The forecasting situation for the NWS compared to us Wunderbloggers is very different. The NWS is the official authority and millions of people rely on what they say. Flipping around their forecasts every other day would result in a loss of the public's trust and can endanger the lives of the people.

So while the NWS has lives, trust, and credibility of the entire public on the line, us Wunderbloggers have literally nothing on the line, except maybe pride (credibility too - but among who? Mostly anonymous internet users).

Lol. Come down off your soap box. It was just a statement. The NWS relies way too much on models, and that's the whole point.

Courtesy: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes.
Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data. The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure.
The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds.
The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane.
Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.


Category:

pulling moisture from the epac. giant anicyclone too

ULF OF MEXICO...
A GREAT PORTION OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY THE SPECIAL FEATURE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO
IMPACT THE GULF BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
STRONGER CYCLONIC WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE ZONES IN
ADDITION TO PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY...guess my local met was right..sunday here by the coastline is our rain day and maybe windy too

Quoting weatherh98:


spinnin'

WOW! Great visible satellite imagery. You can really make out the low pressure center on that one...

Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


This is always a problem when storms develop quickly close to an area that needs to be evacuated. In this case, this invest will develop slowly based on all the graphs that have already been posted here. Once this system starts to develop I'm sure the TS evacuation plan will be started. Don't get me wrong, I do understand that it will occur during rough seas; but until they get a direction on this storm no one knows whether to evac the rigs on the east or the west of the gulf.

Ah yeah I've been through this many times. It's much easier when it's already a storm before it gets in the gulf. Then they have a good idea where it's going and when it's getting there. When they form in the gulf it's usually raining and rough by the time we decide to go and then it's to late for helicopters and the boats have started moving to a safe location out of the path.

Quoting HughJass:


One of these days the Bloggers will Figure our your Game Sport. Keep on a bloggin. 40 posts Per day for 7 Years and running. Mix in a YouTube here and There

Your username is awesome.

Stuart, FL

Now

Light Thunderstorm Rain
Temperature
75.7 °F
Feels Like 75 °F

18z GFDL and HWRF for what its worth seem to favor a westward turn now, although both models never fully develop this into much but a weak depression. It will be interesting to see the GFS 0Z run, as some of the GFDL data comes from the GFS output.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Your username is awesome.

LOLOL

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Moving north at a whooping 3 mph.

That's what worries me...rainfall-wise.

soak the ground, soak it some more, and even just 30 mph wind gusts start wreaking havoc on trees and above ground power lines.

don't know about most other people, but here in Tallahassee, nearly every neighborhood has above ground power lines that are woven through the trees that line our canopy roads.

The only place in town I can think of that's beneath the ground is Southwood.

Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Oh, yeah, she's really cranking up in the last couple of frames there.

it is not too extreme, not unlike what has been happening today

Quoting NCSaint:


Skye, 1) You're as gorgeous as ever, but more importantly 2) you're as insightul and educating as ever. Thank you!!

I'm guessing that surge model is based on the GFS which seems to be an outlier right now?

Quoting TomTaylor:
Isn't it easy for us to say, sitting on our butts behind our computers?

The forecasting situation for the NWS compared to us Wunderbloggers is very different. The NWS is the official authority and millions of people rely on what they say. Flipping around their forecasts every other day would result in a loss of the public's trust and can endanger the lives of the people.

So while the NWS has lives, trust, and credibility of the entire public on the line, us Wunderbloggers have literally nothing on the line, except maybe pride (credibility too - but among who? Mostly anonymous internet users).

Don't forget that we have some of the best 'Crow' recipees on here!

personally I like crow on a spit,

Thanks someone in Texas

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it is not too extreme, not unlike what has been happening today

id expect 90 by 8 am not the next two.

i did find the llc ne of the yucatan now though, some nice convec over it, and for one the convec is rotating with it.
TD tomorrow i say.

Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. Come down off your soap box. It was just a statement. The NWS relies way too much on models, and that's the whole point.

No, they don't. The models are what have allowed them to improve their hurricane forecasts over the last twenty years--that and the improved data gathering that goes into those models.

Quite a change from this morning...

AL, 96, 2012062300, , BEST, 0, 233N, 879W, 30, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 225, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Quoting bappit:

No, they don't. The models are what have allowed them to improve their hurricane forecasts over the last twenty years--that and the improved data gathering that goes into those models.

Ok.

I'm not getting into that argument as it's totally irrelevant. Back to 96L.