Two Atlantic disturbances to watch; Guchol hits Japan; extreme heat in Colorado
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms has developed over Western and Central Caribbean, and this disturbance will need to be watched for development as it moves northwest at 5 - 10 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and its modest area of heavy thunderstorms is bringing rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba today. Wind shear is a moderate to high 20 - 30 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula; strong upper-level winds out of the southwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. None of the computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the system grow in size and potential for development over the next few days. There are currently no hurricane hunter missions scheduled to investigate.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.
North Atlantic Invest 95L headed out to sea
A well-organized low pressure system with a closed surface circulation but little heavy thunderstorm activity (Invest 95L) is over the open Atlantic between Bermuda and Canada. This storm doesn't have enough heavy thunderstorms to deserve a name, but has a 50% chance of doing so before hitting colder waters on Wednesday, according to NHC. 95L is headed northeast out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas.
Figure 2. Tropical Storm Guchol as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on June 19, 2012, as the storm approached Japan. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Guchol hits Japan
Tropical Storm Guchol made landfall in Japan's southern Wakayama prefecture near 9 UTC Tuesday morning. The Japan Times reports that the storm has injured five people, and 83,000 people have been evacuated. Guchol is the first June tropical cyclone to hit Japan since 2004. Tokyo recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 10:47pm local time (9:47 am EDT.) A wind gust of 74 mph was recorded at Shizuhama at 8:21 pm local time. The main threat from Guchol is heavy rain. The storm is expected to dump rains in excess of 400 mm (15.7") in the Tokai region, and 250 mm (9.8") inches near Tokyo. Japan is also watching Tropical Storm Talim, which is expected to pass along the length of the country Thursday and Friday. Talim's rains could cause considerable trouble, as they will fall on soils already saturated by the passage of Tropical Storm Guchol.
Intense heat in Colorado
One of the warmest days in Eastern Colorado history was observed Monday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Denver had a daily record high of 100°F, but Wray, near the Kansas-Nebraska border, reached 109°. This was just short of its all-time record (for any month) of 110°F set in July 1934, and just 5° shy of the all-time state of Colorado record of 114°F set at Las Animas and Sedgwick on July 25, 1952. Lamar in Southeast Colorado hit 108°F yesterday, just 3° short of its all-time record of 111°F set in July 1934. Sterling, the in the far Northeast part of the state, hit 108°F, which may be its all-time heat record. The intense heat yesterday was accompanied by some very dry air. The humidity in Broomfield, CO fell to 4% for more than six hours on Monday. The hot, dry weather made firefighting efforts difficult for the massive wildfire burning 15 miles west of Fort Collins, CO. This fire is the third largest and most destructive fire in Colorado history. Firefighters have achieved 50% containment of the blaze.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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And looks like something's moving into the BOC too.
We will be in the 90's tomorrow..uggh..
Look near Africa on the 00z Euro Wash..I believe we may have our first cape verde storm to track
thats the GFS
Noticed something similar on the GFS had a small closed low approaching Caribbean at the end of the run. Farther out in time of course. But it looks like it's starting. And that high seemed unrelenting across the Atlantic.
Euro the same only slower. It says Mon-
Tues
Humidity: 90 %
Wind Speed: S 16 G 23 MPH
Barometer: 29.91" (1012.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 75 °F (24 °C)
Heat Index: 80 °F (27 °C)
Visibility: 2.50 mi.
With the fires in the forests increasing,is possible that a drought comes.It will all depend on the tropical waves to provide the rain.
I believe we bout to be in the thick of things now..
For the next week or so at least. Our friendly ridge is making a BRIEF I HOPE appearance. :)
The Euro is still insisting on a powerful East coast trough that not only brings her here(midnight Tuesday morning) but also sends a cold front through the Florida Peninsula sometime by next Wednesday!!!
Man look at that Long line of intense t storms headed right for Broward county that alone could give us 3-5in of rain. Seriously, this could be a bigger flood event than I originally though. Wow
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY STRENGTHENING 5H TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND 5H RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE BIG QUESTION MARK
REMAINS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL IT HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE REGION. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING 1 OR 2 SURFACE WAVES TRAVELING NORTHEAST ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH STALLED OFF THE SE COAST WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS JUST CALL FOR
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND A
LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY DO NOT SEE A REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER THE INHERITED FORECAST...SILENT POP FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS VERIFY. HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR CLIMO WITH LOWS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
It's been slowly organizing the last two days. You could really see the air piling up along that trough yesterday. Good thing shear is keeping this from being anything more right now.
And you should be. There has been a big shift in all of the models since yesterday. I do think we will see Debby out of this. Depending on where the dominant low will be. It seems the models are shifting their original thought of it moving west or NW and now seem to favor a NE movement.
I did a blog last night on this. If I am wrong, I will be very embarrassed and will going into early retirement.
Lol. :)
Yeah. Everybody could use a nice break from severe weather after last years historic outbreaks.
Also noting (below) this morning's sheer chart. The Yucatan Channel is closed for business at the moment but I cannot tell from this chart what the sheer is (not noted) over the Cuban disturbance and sheer is not that favorable over the Bay of Campeche at the moment. That developing Gulf anticyclone is skirting the Northern Coast of the Gulf at the moment but nothing there yet to develop.
Link
Gonna be busy this morning and will check back later today.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 590 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IN CUBA WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
TS Chris.
I think they are probably waiting for a dominant low to establish itself. Right now it just looks like a blob of moisture with no low level circulation under it. During the summer, these features are very common and form along the monsoonal flow common in the region. I am sure that soon we might see an invest, but with these systems it takes a little time for them to ramp up.
AL, 03, 2012062012, , BEST, 0, 381N, 523W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 40, 40, 1014, 250, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHRIS, M,
It still needs a define low (which is developing near the Isle of Pines) and some persistent convection. Then hopeful by the 2pm update we can have 96L and get some model runs.
I'm just going for a TS for now. The window for a hurricane is pretty small right now. Conditions would really have to change. I don't see it yet, but Beryl surprised everybody, too.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
420 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2012
By Friday, conditions get a bit more interesting across the CWA, as the current mass of Tropical moisture to the south of Cuba gradually works its way into the Gulf of Mexico. There are still a myriad of model solutions with this system including whether or not anything truly Tropical does develop. The Nam and Canadian are on the extreme side of the spectrum, with the protecting Trof to the north and Upper Ridge to the west essentially bypassing this low, allowing plenty of Tropical moisture to envelop the CWA. The new ECMWF is on the other end of the spectrum, and essentially keeps the bulk of the rainfall over the Coastal Waters. Therefore, decided on the GFS as the preferred model for this cycle, which brings a North-South PoP gradient into our CWA on Thu Night and Fri until a better model consensus can be reached, especially since we are a couple of days from any development in the first place.
Conweather is a fraud and has no met degree and steals info from Jason Moreland, Levi and many other people and repost it word for word. And Rob also begs for money for $250 weather software that he doesn't even know how to use. So let's stop mentioning that site :)
A rather complex set up exists today in the NW Caribbean and the GOM just off the extreme NW tip of Cuba.
This loop shows the low pressure associated with the trough just entering the GOM off the NW tip of Cuba with a clearly evident rotation to the cloud field.
Much further to the SE between Grand Cayman and our two sister islands there appears to be a circulation trying to get going in what is left over from the deep convection last night.
For now, these two areas are too close together for either to organize IMO but if both persist and they continue to separate one or the other will likely become dominant.
All of the vorticity that is showing up on the maps is over the Western tip of Cuba at this time so the other feature has a lot of work to do to become a player.
Let's see how this plays out over the next 12 to 18 hours.Conditions aloft in the area where the trough is are still very hostile with shear values being high.
The area over the Caymans has better conditions for organization but this is all just a watch and see scenario that may or may not materialise.
Yes, that was a bad one and caused a lot of deaths. I think it also developed from just a blob in the Caribbean. I remember how it took us all by surprise when it intensified so fast.
Good that you mentioned Beryl as it was close to becoming a Hurricane with shear around 10-20 knots and remember that it struggled with some continent dry air not to mention it strengthen over some warm water of the gulf stream. However this system could have a large well establish anticyclone as well as limited dry air and the warm untapped waters of the gulf. Its just a matter of how long it will stay over water. However it should be stationary northeast of the Yucatan before feeling the trough.
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