Beryl makes landfall, weakens to a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Beryl lumbered ashore near Jacksonville Beach, Florida at 12:10 am this Memorial Day as an intensifying tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Beryl is only the second named storm to hit on a Memorial Day weekend in the U.S. (the three-day weekend was established in 1971.) The other was Subtropical Storm Alpha of 1972, which followed a path almost identical to Beryl's and made landfall as a 60 mph subtropical storm. Beryl's 70 mph winds at landfall make it the strongest landfalling May tropical cyclone since the May 29, 1908 hurricane, which had 75 mph winds when it brought tropical storm-force winds to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.
Damage from Beryl has been mostly minor, with reports of street flooding, trees down, one house with a roof torn off, and power outages to 25,000 people in the Jacksonville, Florida area. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and lifeguards performed dozens of rescues along the Southeast U.S. coast over the weekend due to rip currents generated by Beryl's rough surf. A tornado warning was issued near 10:30 am EDT this morning for the region near the coast to the east of Jacksonville, and Beryl's spiral bands could produce rotating thunderstorms that will trigger more tornado warnings today. A few of the top winds generated by Beryl over the past day:
Mayport, Florida: 47 mph, gusting to 62 mph (11:10 pm Sunday night)
Buck Island, St. Johns River: wind gust of 73 mph (10:35 pm Sunday night)
Huguenot Park: 54 mph, gusting to 63 mph
Jacksonville Naval Air Station: 37 mph, gusting to 48 mph
Brunswick, GA: 31 mph, gusting to 45 mph
Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine: 47 mph, gusting to 58 mph
Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl has weakened to a tropical depression, but will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it slowly treks through northern Florida, Southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina Monday and Tuesday. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts as of Monday morning were generally 1 - 4 inches in Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, with a few regions of 4+ inches. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to exceptional drought. The 4 - 8 inches of rain expected from Beryl will provide significant drought relief in Florida and Georgia, which are suffering rainfall deficits of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 3.) When Beryl pops off the coast of South Carolina or North Carolina on Wednesday, the storm will probably be moving fast enough that it won't have time to generate enough rain to cause serious flooding problems in those states.
Figure 3. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. Image credit: NOAA.
July-like heat wave continues over much of the U.S.
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Sunday. The heat was most notable in Indiana, where both South Bend (97°F) and Fort Wayne (96°F) set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. Rockford, Illinois (99°) and Chicago (97°) both had their hottest temperature on record so early in the year. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. A compensating sharp dip in the jet stream allowed three airports in the Western U.S. to set daily coldest temperature records on Saturday. Numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, where temperatures 15 - 20°F above average are expected.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Here's the NHC's poster for this week. Took ages to download...
I may even have some "fun in the sun" today! Whoohoo!!!
Nice Graphic Dude, keep up the good work.
Also, I am getting tired of people every few posts saying watch so and so area - there is a Low that is suppose to develop there....um...there are Lows all over the map and just because there is a low that is over the water doesnt mean it is tropical or anything to worry about.
So many useless posts that come across as just posters trying to get attention or get their post count up.
The season has not even started and it looks like im going to have to start using the hide button! Oy Vey!
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Parry Sound - Muskoka.
A hot and muggy day expected.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Hot and humid air is expected to move into Southern Ontario today.
Some of the hottest temperatures so far this season are expected,
likely surpassing 30 degrees in most areas away from the cooler Great
Lakes, and reaching close to 33 in some locales. The hot temperatures
combined with increasing humidity will result in humidex values in
the high thirties in most regions.
It appears that humidex readings will likely remain just below
The advisory criteria of 40, thus an advisory does not appear
Likely at this time.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
END/OSPC
What are those maps about?
I want to be a professional photographer when i grow up, I have been already told I take good pictures.
I changed my mind on being a meteorologist to taking pictures of nature and weather.
so the more negative the number, the higher the threat..so the areas in red are going to catch it?
Make sure you listen up for any tornado threats
I know... I didn't say Beryl is restrengthening, just that the warm, humid conditions are starting to fuel an increase in convection down there.
Are the 70 mph sustained winds just off shore and don't make it on land?
I think Beryl was probably weakening as it came onshore so there probably weren't too many areas that saw winds over 60mph... Any 70mph sustained winds would have been very localized and probably right at the coast.
same for my daughter in MD...heed the warnings!
You called it with Beryl. Do you think this area would travel a similar path as Beryl?
There where several reports from non-official stations of 70mph winds, and a 87mph gust. Most of it was confined in that NE quad during landfall and there wasn't much in the way of data for it.
**THE LATEST**
(click to enlarge image; images can further be enlarged in Link window)
actually yes I do because I think that this area is going to try and follow beryl's tail when beryl come out to open water however I do not see a track that take this system to a landfall in the SE US
That's what I was thinking as well. Thanks!
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS HELPING
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO S OF 15N BETWEEN 77W-84W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO ACROSS COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA ALONG
10N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 69W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20
KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN
THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND COULD LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND AREA OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL IN THE ATLC.
Did you notice it has a 16% chance of becoming a hurricane?
Looks like the outer banks could get to do this again.
Also, the new GFS is setting up the trough with a nice 45 degree shear slope over the SE.
could get nasty
Hey Wunderkid, Could it head northeast into South Florida?
Statement as of 12:57 PM EDT on May 28, 2012
... A significant weather advisory is in effect for strong wind gusts between 45 and 55 mph over eastern Orange County... northeastern Osceola County... eastern Seminole County... Volusia County... and northern Brevard County
* until 145 PM EDT.
At 1251 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated storms capable of producing strong wind gusts from New Smyrna Beach to Lake Ashby... Wedgefield and Harmony. The storm were moving northeast at 25 to 30 mph and will approach the southern Volusia and for northern Brevard County coast through early afternoon.
Locally heavy rain... gusty winds to 45 to 55 mph and cloud to ground lightning strikes are possible with these storms.
Some locations in the path of these storms include...
New Smyrna Beach... Edgewater... Oak Hill... Christmas... Canaveral Groves... lone cabbage Fish Camp and Harmony.
The primary threat will be cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph... which can cause unsecured objects to blow around... snap tree limbs or cause power outages. Heavy rainfall
will temporarily reduce visibility. Seek shelter indoors until the storm passes.
Absolutely nothing developing at the surface. All of this is induced by an upper level trough, nothing more. The majority of the thunderstorms have now dissipated.
850mb vort:
The broad circulation you are referring to is the mid-upper level low over the Yucatan.
You think it will gain strength before heading to outer banks?
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