Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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AL, 02, 2012052800, , BEST, 0, 301N, 806W, 60, 993, TS,
the only thing I say to that is then, if it doesnt make a difference, then why not upgrade or not upgrade based on the ACTUAL DATA and not on politics and technicalities?
Yep, Patrap...I do believe you're correct.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTH CENTRAL NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
TREGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT
* AT 717 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TWO
INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RANSOM...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
727 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHERN HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT
* AT 721 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JORDAN...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LE SUEUR...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
Haven't really seen too much of the blog until the last few weeks. It would be something to see three named storms in May.
Everyone that is being affected with Beryl stay safe.
What data do you have that proves winds in excess of 74mph at the surface?
There isn't any. Just rough guesstimates based on a formula that has great room for error.
I see 80kt winds at 850mb. Awesome. Storms have had screaming flight level winds that don't translate to the surface. And there have also been storms that have flight level winds that are actually *less* than those at the surface.
The fact of the matter is that the NHC does not have concrete data justifying an upgrade. Beyond that, the benefit of an upgrade is marginal outside of the semantics involved. The NHC has never been big on semantics.
"Chris?" is in clean air but controlled by a low over land that may move west. Interesting situation.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
801 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
FLZ052-056-057-061-280115-
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
801 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS INLAND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...GUST WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS.
$$
TF
Yeah, quite possible. Looked pretty rough before it went though, but it was getting very dark.
In the 20 years I have been tracking, I have seen very often the NHC use the 20% rule to estimate surface winds
flight level winds of 90mph, makes this a 75mph hurricane based on that. Its a close call and it doesn't matter much either way, but they have many times used those flight level winds to determine the surface winds
If you open up the ATCF FIX file you will find this on the earlier 62kt SFMR reading:
AL 02 201205272116 50 AIRC 3010N 8030W 3 62 2 993 LAA 850 1358 62 295 24 16 73 294 27 993 12 19 13 CORRECTED RAIN SFMR 55 KT
.
There's a marginal, if any, difference the public takes between a TS warning well in advance and with NWS warnings.......and a hurricane watch. The storm was too close, they would have had to issue hurricane warnings, not watches, at this point. Which would only benefit the insurance companies. The main thing is the public safety and again:
1. The storms not a hurricane.
2. The NHC didn't give it ZERO chance, they gave it a 10% chance just 24 hours ago.
3. The proof's going to be in the wind speeds measured on land and the damage reports. So far, they're right in line with forecasts.
My only reservation about a post season up-grade is that Cindy's pressure was 991, Gaston 986, and Karen 988. Beryl is right on the fringe of that questionable/post-season upgrade range-- not so convinced they would call it unless it drops another 1 or 2 mb.
...just going by pressure's here though.. if there's wind data to support it, which there seems to be a bit, then that's a different story.
Not entirely.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
79W-85W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED FROM UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
he's been writing things and such, i would assume he was there
Thought he was in Spain insulting the King.
Link
A who is partying in my contry and not governing
anyway just a heads up Former Presedent George W Bush Jr is running down here to Cayman this November
Looks good..
They did the same with Alex. They upgraded it to a Cat 2 just as it made landfall.
He went to the caymans for Pam bondi's non wedding.
Oh, I know. It is a very close call, I just think the NHC wants something concrete to make the call, and they don't see the benefit of calling it a hurricane, outside of semantics. Most of the SFMR and dropsonde info has shown 65mph winds - I haven't seen much in the way of 70mph winds in the observations I looked at.
looks like the drought is going to start taking a toll on the convection as it begins to move inland... doesn't really help out the rest of the storm too much.. or at least it's satellite appearance
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
Looks like my updated 3:42 PM Beryl forecast was good...
"Therefore...there is a remote chance of a minimal hurricane before landfall tonight..but my newest forecast in Figure 1 is more conservative at 70 mph max central winds (just under hurricane status)."
Anyone getting hit in NE FL and SE GA tonight can vent or share their questions...concerns...or experiences on my blog too. Stay safe!
Not quite true... most insurance policies have a much larger deductible for Hurricanes than for wind storms.
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