Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Hardly. He was a hero in Miami during Hurricane Andrew.
Jacksonville Beach, Duval County.
Tropical storm, reported by mesonet.
Jax beach pier reported winds at 35 mph gusting to 55
mph.
From Earlier....
And don't forget to join the tropics chat!
Norcross took us through Andrew. He know his stuff
Norcross hinted yesterday that Beryl could tighten up today. If there is anyone you should trust on TV next to Max Mayfield, it's Bryan Norcross. Floridians know.
Well...that's good, at least :)
We're supposedly in the middle of that right now and its nothing. People still walking with umbrellas!!!
or they are just stupid and careless..Im going with my theory
Coordinates: 30.7667N 79.8W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,515 meters (~ 4,970 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.5 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 122° at 65 knots (From the ESE at ~ 74.8 mph)
Air Temp: 13.0°C* (~ 55.4°F*)
Dew Pt: 13.0°C* (~ 55.4°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 66 knots (~ 75.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 51 knots (~ 58.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Certainly not what I was expecting.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
623 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
...BERYL TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE HAMILTON...SUWANNEE...COLUMBIA...ECHOLS...AND COUNTIES.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...HAMILTON...SUWANNEE...COLUMBIA...WARE ...ECHOLS AND
CLINCH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
BAKER...NASSAU...DUVAL...UNION...BRADFORD...CLAY. ..ST JOHNS...
PUTNAM...FLAGLER...WAYNE...BRANTLEY...INLAND GLYNN...COASTAL
GLYNN...CHARLTON...INLAND CAMDEN AND COASTAL CAMDEN.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...PIERCE...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM
RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GILCHRIST...ALACHUA...MARION...
COFFEE...JEFF DAVIS...BACON...APPLING AND ATKINSON...POSSIBLE
IMPACTS FROM RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.0N...LONGITUDE 80.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FL...OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE FL. STORM MOTION WAS WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST AND ON THIS TRACK
WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST TONIGHT. FULL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.
FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.
REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE AROUND 9 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-282230-
/O.CON.KJAX.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
623 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION
THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 100 PERCENT.
...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM BERYL APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 55
KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 65 KNOTS. SEAS OF 15 TO 22 FEET ARE
EXPECTED.
...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
RAINBANDS MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
$$
Heaviest winds look to be in the NW quad according to recon...
with winds at 28.4mph still
could see 991mb or even 990mb
they have yet to go to the strongest winds either
Unless my google earth data is quite a bit behind, that's not at the centre yet.
In case you haven't noticed... there's a landfalling ~75MPH storm in a populated area. Stay on topic as per blog rules.
Radar suggests a rapidly closing eyewall structure from the east side. Definitely cutting it close now.
Also Hurricane Hunters have found slightly higher max flight level winds near 87 mph with a 1 mb drop in pressure down to 992 mb. Whatever talk there was about a weakening trend is incorrect based on this data.
Not smart. Looks like the worst of this initial "band" or eye wall, whatever you want to call it, is about to swing down through St Augustine. Hope they are ready.... what a weird storm. Seems to have the "experts" completely fooled. Even the more knowledgeable people on this blog said earlier today once the storms hit the cooler shelf waters they would die down.... now the worst of the storm is on the western side, right on top of those "cooler shelf waters"
THANK YOU. I am sooooo tired of the tropic chat nonsense. Let me just see what's going on HERE. geeeeeeeez.
And my two cents? I think people were underwarned about this. Unless you're a weather nerd, there hasn't been much "to do" about this. Friends of mine in GA haven't bothered to do anything. News was saying it was going to be mild.
I'm in Sandy Eggo and FREAKING out for them. Lived there for a few years...tons of trees, river right behind them. Banging my head into the wall trying to tell them to at least get the crap off the lawn.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
640 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
FLZ058-059-064-272345-
MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-
640 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...ST. LUCIE COUNTY...
* UNTIL 745 PM EDT.
AT 638 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKEECHOBEE COUNTY EAST TO
FORT PIERCE MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE PORT SAINT LUCIE RIVER PARK AND NETTLES ISLAND.
LAT...LON 2713 8066 2721 8080 2745 8081 2756 8032
2720 8016 2720 8015 2708 8013
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 272DEG 27KT 2737 8028
$$
67
Itsa gonna be a dicey call, but that's moot as to impacts as the storm aint a member.
: )
per webcam: They're in the water and it looks bad. Go figure
Darwin Award candidates if they don't get away from there.
so you would rather talk about nothing blobs in the Caribbean, how dead the ATL could be in the 3 months than a strengthening, landfalling storm?
Most are staying on topic and focusing on Beryl and the information that goes with her; but there are a few of you that are; IMO on purpose; refusing to post about the storm and rather about other things
You don't understand something about media.
They aren't always allowed to say what they want to say on weather or news programming. Sorry, that's just how it is.
His weakening comment was in reference to the western band, which actually did break up a bit a few minutes ago.
Coordinates: 30.3833N 80.25W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.5 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,432 meters (~ 4,698 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 992.4 mb (~ 29.31 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 122° at 25 knots (From the ESE at ~ 28.7 mph)
Air Temp: 19.2°C (~ 66.6°F)
Dew Pt: 11.6°C (~ 52.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Pressure dropping
Viz
I really can't speak for them, or defend them. That's just stupid.
In the past, even when I interned there in 1986 and 1994, that was the standard practice. And, I would argue a much better one at that.
When issuing forecasts for a prospective (or possible) hurricane landfall, it's not all about the science, but making sure persons in the path of the storm are encouraged to take all necessary precautions to protect lives and property. From that standpoint, I would argue that a Hurricane Watch (combined with the TS Warning) would encourage the greater public to take additional precautions than they would've without it.
From a strictly scientific and operational viewpoint, a significantly intensifying 65 mph TS (with hurricane force wind gusts) should also have strongly encouraged the NHC to error on the side of safety and issue the Hurricane Watch, as well.
Keep in mind, there were about seven deaths during H Katrina in SE Florida as a result of people being killed by falling trees, as they drove around in their vehicles.
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