Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I did send them an email a few hours ago telling to clean the cam for the most important day in their history!
couldnt see you, the cam was 2 messy and i couldnt see the beach, only the water and pier
I don't know about crazy, but for the month of May perhaps. Sure beats global warming discussions though.
True! But my family is doing a BBQ this evening, as much as I love weather I'm not a loner, lol.
: )
Been watching this process for the past couple hours. Would not be surprised to see this complete the process and become a minimal hurricane at the rate it has been organizing and intensifying today.
I agree.
Well that's not good...
This one's loaded up on the NSTP
(Non-supercell tornado potential)
...click image for loop
maybe you should read the latest advisory! LOL
Link
Southeast Volusia is getting some decent rain bands, but no wind to speak of as yet.
This is from 2 p.m. NHC Public Advisory:
...Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions will be reaching the coast of northeast Florida and southeastern Georgia this afternoon and continue through tonight. Gusts to hurricane force are possible over portions of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia tonight.
Storm surge...the combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following depths above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
coastal portions of South Carolina...Georgia...and North Florida...1 to 3 ft
the deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location...where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle...and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area...please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office.
Surf...dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are expected along the coast from northeastern Florida to North Carolina over the remainder of the Memorial Day weekend. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service office for information specific to your area.
Rainfall...Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the southeastern coast of the United States from northern Florida through southeastern North Carolina.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 PM EDT.
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/windFields.asp?s torm=Beryl
Always a fine idea.
; )
Isn't that a good sign for her? Not for us though.
Beryl becomes a hurricane and makes landfall in FL tonight, it will be the first time that a hurricane has made landfall in Florida since 2005!
Not even getting into the fact that it's May.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
02L/TS/B/CX
MARK
30.09N/79.98W
NEARING LANDFALL
The plots above were calculated using the four plots below.
Indeed.
Very interesting situation.
Beryl is looking very good this afternoon and really pulling together. May become a minimal hurricane just before landfall. Recon on the way and we will find out soon.
yes that means she is quickly getting stronger and as I said could become a hurricane
Counting the days till the Convention and trying to figure out where to Put the Gun Racks for the attendees I heard.
Early cycle model data on this page was valid as of: Sunday, May 27, 2012 18:00 Z
Late cycle and other previous models were valid as of: Sunday, May 27, 2012 12:00 Z
She's running out time though. Its possible of course, I just hope recon can get out there before she makes landfall.
Radar out NWS Melbourne
I don't post often, it is going to be so close to Hurricane Status.
But the storm only has, what, 5-7 hours to get that 10mph in wind speed increase? Can it do it?
that's she's lopsided?!
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