Subtropical Storm Beryl forms
The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.
The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.
Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.
Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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A. 50mph
B. 60mph
C. 65-70mph
D. Hurricane
E. Still sub-tropical but with hurricane force winds.
The first time (before landfall) - B.
The second time (after emerging) - C.
Although, it is slowly eating away at the Dry Air, it is moistening up the environment around it, Once it gets rid of that dry air, im assuming it will fire convection
They are, they mention it in the current Hazardous Weather Outlook that it posted.
B,C or maybe even D or E, but my choices are similar to twx13
That is huge.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 251445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 25 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-007
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
C. 26/1515Z
D. 33.0N 77.0W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
BLOG UPDATE!
Subtropical Storm Beryl develops 5/26/2012
i ues firefox 12
It was supposed to takeoff at 11:15 AM EDT.
26/1515Z
Ah, got distracted.
Meant to say arrives in an hour.
36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
000
NOUS42 KNHC 251445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 25 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-007
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 26/1800Z A. 27/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 26/1515Z C. 27/0915Z
D. 33.0N 77.0W D. 30.8N 79.5W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z E. 27/1130Z TO 27/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 28/0000Z FIX
NEAR 30.8N 81.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
NOUS42 KNHC 251445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 25 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-007
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 26/1800Z A. 27/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 26/1515Z C. 27/0915Z
D. 33.0N 77.0W D. 30.8N 79.5W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z E. 27/1130Z TO 27/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 28/0000Z FIX
NEAR 30.8N 81.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Where did you heard that info?
I noticed that too. Thought maybe my eyes were playing tricks on me. The lack of deep convection around the center tends to make it more difficult to pinpoint the COC at times. May be a temporary jog.
NOUS42 KNHC 261400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 26 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-008
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/2200Z
B. AFXXX 0302A BERYL
C. 27/1945Z
D. 30.4N 80.5W
E. 27/2130Z TO 28/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
By the way, she is looking much more tropical now on satellite.
I'm on Chrome right now, everything is working fine for me.
So our suspicions of it going more south than forecasted are becoming true?
May 26, 2012 - 15:45 UTC
May 26, 2012 - 15:45 UTC
Using Chrome with no problems.
Very true, but you can still see where the dry air that got sucked in has taken a toll on convection in the NE.
(click to enlarge; graphics can further be enlarged in Link window)
It will become a flood threat especially if it gains convection and strengthens.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF BERYL.
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