Subtropical Storm Beryl forms
The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.
The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.
Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.
Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
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no you are right, NHC at 2pm noted the stall
also to answer Largo, it would increase the chance that Beryl does not make landfall at all before turning back to the Northeast
High-Density Observations (USAF)
UZNT13 KNHC 262034
XXAA 76205 99301 70787 11608 99013 25440 33027 00114 24430 32526
92793 19207 34528 85517 15203 34527 70144 07031 34523 50583 07917
00530 88999 77999
31313 09608 82000
61616 AF307 0102A BERYL OB 05
62626 SPL 3003N07867W 2008 MBL WND 33029 AEV 20802 DLM WND 35028
012494 WL150 33027 083 REL 3010N07868W 200013 SPG 3003N07867W 200
834 =
XXBB 76208 99301 70787 11608 00013 25440 11850 15203 22735 09636
33639 01617 44507 06521 55494 09114
21212 00013 33027 11959 33530 22850 34527 33674 34025 44539 01535
55494 36028
31313 09608 82000
61616 AF307 0102A BERYL OB 05
62626 SPL 3003N07867W 2008 MBL WND 33029 AEV 20802 DLM WND 35028
012494 WL150 33027 083 REL 3010N07868W 200013 SPG 3003N07867W 200
834 =
;
Acft. Static Air Press: 971.1 mb (~ 28.68 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 249 meters (~ 817 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 999.2 mb (~ 29.51 inHg)
Seems to be the center.
205530 3154N 07554W 9633 00404 //// 160 //// 121054 055 043 012 01
205600 3156N 07552W 9628 00411 //// 161 //// 123050 053 045 020 05
Coordinates: 31.7167N 76.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 962.7 mb (~ 28.43 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 383 meters (~ 1,257 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.2 mb (~ 29.71 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 124° at 45 knots (From the ESE/SE at ~ 51.7 mph)
Air Temp: 20.2°C* (~ 68.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
I'm seeing roughly 53, so roughly 55MPH for 11?
Does this trajectory include any recon data?
NW Carrib.
It will have to fight dry air and sheer though.
From 121° at 54 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 62.1 mph)
Is it me or is she starting to look more and more tropical?
That's more like I was thinking it would be
You look at flight level winds
Itsa trying to get a warm column Built.
Slowly,...but some progress is noted like 50%..
Watch the outer bands convection and the inner convection tonight.
Wilmington Long Range.
URNT12 KNHC 262104
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 26/20:41:40Z
B. 31 deg 20 min N
076 deg 31 min W
C. NA
D. 35 kt
E. 224 deg 17 nm
F. 322 deg 37 kt
G. 223 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 999 mb
I. 21 C / 428 m
J. 23 C / 268 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0102A BERYL OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 55 KT NE QUAD 20:55:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;
Yeah, I'm not buying that.
Think she can become fully tropical sometime during her life before any land?
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 53 knots (~ 60.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 16 mm/hr (~ 0.63 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 21:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2012
Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 20:41:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°20'N 76°31'W (31.3333N 76.5167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 214 miles (344 km) to the SE (140°) from Myrtle Beach, SC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 322° at 37kts (From the NW at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 428m (1,404ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 268m (879ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:55:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:55:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
there are quite a few modes that take this further west before it turns back NE and are a bit further south too
205600 3156N 07552W 9628 00411 //// +161 //// 123050 053 045 020 05
Yeah, I think the NHC is playing it conservative due to uncertainty. Remember, its better to be cautious than being "the boy who cried wolf".
If trends continue they will shift southwest in time.
I'd say there's a 70-80% chance Beryl makes it to Full TS Status.
The structure is solid, and the progress she made today may help tonight's convection as the west side is feeling the Warmers SST's seems.
Edit: Wonder if if the red cloud tops will ever show up on infrared.
Not going to suggest what folks should do (take the advice of your own local authorities) but a good rule of thumb is to prepare for a Cat 1 if you are expecting a tropical storm (just in case).
AVN
1. The national hurricane center got some splainin to do
2.Wonder how the national hurricane center likes their crow cooked?
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