Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You wish. More likely a rather rare GA landfall as perhaps a 50 mph TS.
He did
I gotta mail you
Watching the news this morning and the weather guys really downplayed the storm saying we might see a shower here and there..I guess they dont want to hurt the financial side of memorial weekend and state we may be looking at some bad weather this weekend..
Levi might get a Nobel Prize someday if he sticks with Meteorology..... :)
The window of opportunity should start soon
You are a valuable member of this blog, I hope you will stay many more years to come.
Not close, but gettin there, needs to fire deep convection. Reminds me of Barry in 2007, except on the other side of the coastline this year.
Not surprising at all, these systems off the the SE US Coast, north of the Bahamas, rarely end up making landfall along the Florida Coast (I have asserted this on the blog before, recently). There are generally just too many factors which ultimately steer tropical cyclones away. When I woke up today and saw how far north and east 94L had already made it overnight, I figured models would shift as usual. I hope 94L brings much needed rain to areas in need, otherwise, it can get out of the way and allow our rainy season to commence unhindered.
Blog update on 94L:
Tropical Tidbit for Friday, May 25th, with Video
RGB loop showing the any high cloudiness (what little there is, anyways) to the west of the system is barely moving, or slightly (less than 20mph to the east), while the high cloudiness to the east of the system is racing to the NE... indeed, lower shear environment is approaching.
Just came back from Panera Bread, What did I miss?
Whoa , 94l now has a well defined, closed circulation!!!!!
Stationary...
12Z CMC believes it's about to start turning WSW and head for the NE FL coastline in 48 hours. So far 2 of the 12Z models have shifted back south so lets see if the Euro stays on the NE FL landfall idea.
No
Thanks
I'm Thankfull that it did not hit Mexico as a major hurricane, I think we have to be glad that it weakened before hitting the coast.
Looks like Don from last year.
Station 41002
NDBC
Location: 31.862N 74.835W
Date: Fri, 25 May 2012 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 27.2 kt gusting to 38.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 9.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (140°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 75.4 F
Dew Point: 74.1 F
Water Temperature: 77.9 F
View Details - View History
11:00 AM PDT Fri May 25
Location: 18.9°N 105.5°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Models still say North Florida/ South Georgia.
Agree. That is what I was thinking. That buoy #41002 is located at 31.8N 74.8W with winds coming from 100 degrees (slightly south of due east), which makes sense that would be where it is located based on the buoy location and wind flow. Interesting too that pressure is falling rapidly and winds are 27kts, gusting over TS force. Could be interesting next few days.
You mean FootW? lmao...Sorry all, could not resist the temptation...
As far as the spot goes...I tend to agree with the 30N 75.2W ish area. Seems to be the general vort center at this point. Sheared, and not much to sustain it right now, would not be surprised to see it take hold, but wouldn't be surprised if it shifted at some point either.
NHC initialized 94L in the CoC that will eventually get sucked into the low to the south. Georgia and FL seems more likely that South Carolina.
I totally hope that pans out ...
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