Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Goes to show you it barely got better lol.
yes, but it needs better form, the winds could just be isolated and it wouldnt hurt to wait and see what happens, it could easily get a little weaker before restrengthening.
With its shape it needs to start building convection on the S side.
And the award for most rapid weakening goes to...
Seriously, from 75mph to 35mph? That's just sad.
The only difference between a tropical depression and a tropical storm is wind speed.
its currently subtropical, they dont necessarily need to be symmetric to be classified
I can see this being Beryl tonight
Bud's not even a Hurricane anymore.
Conditions surrounding it finally brought the storm down.
While Bud simmers down, we have 94L very close to becoming a named storm.
I wouldn't be surprised, if current trends continue, to see a named storm at the 11 pm advisory.
94L just blew up some nice convection and tucked the Circulation right under it. Very good signs toward this becoming a storm, soon.
I'd be surprised if Bud is still a tropical cyclone by 11. 94L is looking good.
it need not be symettrical, but that teardrop shape it has, with the LLC rotating without the MLC fully engaged, i would wait till tomorrow morning.
circulation looks to be closer to 32 then 33, plus it has slowed big time, also forecasts show a possible SW move
again its likely landfall is probably Savannah to Daytona Beach, but like you said; its the areas to the north that will get slammed at first
Is pulling itself together quite nicely.
this will not be a TD this is going right to a STS or TS it all ready has 40 too 45kt winds
It wouldn't "make" history...It would tie it though.
Its a classic diagnosis problem. It seems to me that the stronger vorticity analyzed at 700 than 500 mb is symptomatic indeed of convection at and below 700mb and the relative divergence above that level promotes vertical motion below 500mb. As you well know, just basic Q-G. So in this subtropical stage it may still be positive to have shear in the mix, if only to concentrate the lower level vorticity...yes, kind of like a supercell.
Nah, Chris will do that at the start of next week ;)
Will probably be back to the stronger one tomorrow.
This is the 3rd fluctuation, it changes once a day...
No Comment.
Sure, I see what you're saying. The shear can help to start them off because of divergence aloft, which is much of why 94L deepened today. At this point though, with convection developing over the center, I think further shear will only impede full tropical transition, so it is now becoming a negative.
Pretty sure it will jump straight to an STS or TS, but unfortunately, I don't know what NHC has on their minds so leaving options open. :)
True...
TROPICAL STORM BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
500 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
...BUD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH
DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 105.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
The tropics just had to make it difficult for him...
nice going away president of "here is what we think of you"
lol
Are you talking about Don?
Pffft. That was nothing but a ball of dust.
A 70mph TS seems pretty generous to me...
just like Bud the Dud.
guess it was mexico's best bud after all.
And definitely a Bud Light.
This is no 70 mph tropical storm.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but after it wraps around, all quadrants will have convection?
Hey, if it meets the requirements, it meets the requirements. There is no "beauty" requirement in the official definition of a tropical cyclone, nor should there be. Don't expect this to look like a well-developed hurricane. Out of the thousands of 40-45mph cyclones that have been recorded, only a handful could be called pretty.
And it's COC is actually pretty well-defined for this stage. Not really poor. Strong vorticity and presence on visible loops.
If it wraps all the way around, yes, though it will be difficult for it to do so with the dry air on the southwest side of the circulation.
Excellent point!
94L Elongated closed low at the surface.
Winds@1000mb (Surface)
Winds@925mb
Winds@700mb
Winds@200mb
Click Images for full size.
Best response so far. Thanks :)
It's happened before, in both 1908 and 1887.
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