Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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My car said 100 degrees at 3:34 pm
Expect a new STWO around 8 p.m. probably saying that if the trends continue, advisories may be issued shortly 90-100%
That's nothing compared to previous seasons. We pushed 9000 last year.
i thought the center was east of charleston
Looks like a closed COC to my novice eye
Not nearly as dry as I thought.
yea definitely subtropical
I took a pic of my dash and sent it to friends in Chicago. They wouldn't have believed me otherwise.
It's looking much better, as the convection pulling into the center.
The southern one is now the dominant and only low. The baroclinic one literally went from being a defined circulation to being completely absorbed within the span of 8 hours.
His opinion, not official.
That looks nice and closed.
Not fully tropical yet until the convection can sustain itself over the center for a few hours. It is already trying to cover the center now, but wind shear is still moderate due to the tilted structure of the system, with the upper-level circulation offset to the west, imposing southerly shear on the surface low.
If no one else has the ability to get excited, it's Joe B., LOL
If we can get that 300mb circulation to stack, this will have a very decent chance at strengthening.
Link
Yesterdays local forecast for are temps: 90 to 93.
Actual highs around the area:94 to 99.
Today's forecast for area temps:90 to 93.
Actual highs:94 to 99, again.
lol
Wow! Thanks for heads up. :)
Now:
Do you mean at the latest?
Way to wrap up 94L!
As Levi mentioned earlier, one could argue this is already a Subtropical Storm.
Yeah see too me it barely got any better.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
344 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
The "D" word is being thrown about again. Sigh...
THE 12Z GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING A SHARP COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. NOT QUITE BUYING THIS FASTER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED SCENARIO JUST YET...AS THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN PROGS ARE
SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...YET MAINTAINS
DIRTY NW FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND
TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN EVEN DEVELOP AN MCS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SRN OK/N TX THURSDAY...TRAVERSING ESE INTO THE NRN HALF
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION BY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE NOT MADE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
WITH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...BUT DID TREND SLOWER
WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE/ATTENDANT COOL ADVECTION
DURING THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. THUS...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
ANOTHER WEEK BEFORE POTENTIALLY LEGIT SHOTS OF RAIN RETURN TO OUR
REGION.
GIVEN THESE ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPS...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE URGED TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...AND USE
CAUTION WHEN GRILLING AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AN
INCREASED FIRE THREAT.
I don't care what G.W. enthusiasts say the cause of warming is, It's just darn hot, and darn early!
I mean earliest, the NHC will want to look for sustained convection. What if 94L falls apart for whatever reason? Think of the Jose drama last year. 6-12 hours from classification is a good bet.
I have had no issues getting onto the atcf site on my phone
LLC is firmly tucked under the convection ALREADY:
ZOOM-IN (Recommended)
700mb Vorticity:
500mb Vorticity:
Just give it some time, NC doesn't stick it's nose out there in the atlantic to avoid all...
Something would have to be going on in the NE Gulf, and that would probably relate to a true pressure of 1000-995 mb.
Viewing: 751 - 801
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