Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It's a little better all the time (It can't get no worse)
I have to admit it's getting better (better)
It's getting better
Blog Post's.
It is an intensifying subtropical low, but it is not tropical yet. For that to happen it needs to become vertically stacked with the upper trough to its west, which will happen tonight and tomorrow. You can see the upper low immediately west of the surface low:
94L could be a named storm easily by 11am tomorrow if this rapid organization continues.
Lol. look at the center, it still sucks.
June 1 the ESL site will go operational with the Tropical Views.
It's most recent position is 18.9n105.5w
Its vector had held steady at North at ~8.1mph(13k/h)
MaxSusWinds had decreased from ~90knots(104mph)167k/h to ~65knots(75mph)120k/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 970millibars to 990millibars
For those who like to visually track H.Bud's path...
PVR is PuertoVallarta . ZLO is Manzanillo . LZC is LazaroCardenas
The southernmost connected dot is where TropicalStormBud became HurricaneBud
The southernmost dot on the coast-to-sea line-segment was H.Bud's most recent position
The coast-to-sea line-segment is a straightline-projection through H.Bud's 2 most recent positions
to the coastline.
The ZLO-to-coast dumbbell was the endpoint* of the 25May6amGMT* straightline projection
connected to its closest airport.
The PVR-to-coast dumbbell was the endpoint of the 25May12pmGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport.
On 25May6pmGMT, H.Bud was headed toward passing over the LaPrimaveraCentro in ~4&1/2_hours from now
Copy&paste pvr-19.832n105.364w, zlo-19.016n104.305w, lzc, 14.0n107.7w-14.6n107.5w, 14.6n107.5w-15.2n107.1w, 15.2n107.1w-16.0n106.5w, 16.0n106.5w-16.8n106.1w, 16.8n106.1w-17.5n105.7w, 17.5n105.7w-18.2n105.6w, 18.2n105.6w-18.9n105.5w, 18.2n105.6w-19.832n105.366w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.
* 17.3n105.7w was re-evaluated&altered to 17.5n105.7w. So an incorrect vector(direction&speed) was calculated for 25May6amGMT from using the original incorrect position.
Through recalculation using the correct position, the vector has been corrected to reflect that change.
The original incorrect vector produced an incorrect straightline projection leading to an incorrect endpoint on the ZLO-to-coast dumbbell
Nonetheless I am reposting it to maintain historicity with the previous map.
1013 is closer to a high pressure than what it really is.
A ridge of high pressure is forecast to block 94L from going ENE and forced to go around in a W or WSW direction, it should start turning by tomorrow.
Give them a break, Levi! They just aren't as good as we are. They'll get better.
Considering the last 9L was Irene, I would agree.
Have they deactivated him? I see nothing on ATCF.
You just helped :p
Been a while since it's happened.
Thanks Pat!
Taz said he would cook fresh crow for the person who has the 1,000th post.
it will cost you $100 per crow i fix
Now I'm scared to post after 990.
What is funny to me is that common folklore on the island here is that we're "protected" from hurricanes because they normally do the arc pass the curve of the CONUS in the southeast. So here's the one storm in 100 that disproves the theory? I still sort of don't believe this zigging to the SW of the models. There's still a few days for them to moderate the direction of this storm.
I'd give it about a 40% chance.
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just a wonder. It's pretty fun tracking this storm, knowing I'll be going south to Charleston for few days.
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