Azores storm 92L unlikely to develop; East Pacific hurricane season begins
The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.

Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Invest 92L taken at 8:35 am EDT Monday May 14, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins
The first tropical depression of the 2012 hurricane season has formed this morning in the Eastern Pacific, and it comes one day before the official May 15 start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Depression One-E is located about 645 mi south of Manzanillo Mexico, and is headed west, away from any land areas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 29°C, and TD One-E has a good chance of becoming the season's first tropical storm by Tuesday. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. TD One-E will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.
Only weak potential for an Atlantic system developing over the next week
The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, though it is possible we might see something develop along an old cold frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If such a storm did develop, it would likely move northeast out to sea.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If it develops on the GFS timetable probably east of Florida is more likely, but let's see if we even get anything to come out of the Caribbean.
Lol.
Nice to see you too. The worst part was being in the eye for 3-5 hours just waiting for her back half to come onshore.
Hey, what's wrong with a little board game to ease those worries?
No you wouldn’t Kori. When you own your own house, have to pay all the bills, it’s not fun.
Hurricane Elena's textbook eye moves over Biloxi, Mississippi on the morning of September 2, 1985.
Conceded.
You can sort the files by name, last modified, or size.
Nothing wrong with that lol. It was like Frances was playing a cruel trick on us.
Oh. Whatever, lol. I know what I'm looking for whenever I go there.
at 7:50 in, it says studies have foubd winds never reach 300 MPH... lol old videos.
It's a very serious situation, Patrap....
Even if they took inmediate (starting today) action to get rid of the radioactive pile from no.4, like Arnie Gundersen explains, they would have to begin building the cranes to transport the material today and would take 30 months (2.5 years).....
That means that building no. 4 should be free from quakes (6 or more) for the following 30 months, and that isn't happening....
Lol. 3 years before the May 3rd monster.
(click to enlarge)
Change the color
Change the zoom
Very interesting....
We need Art Bell back!
Maj. Gen. Albert N. Stubblebine III (US Army Ret.)in Wikipedia:
"Stubblebine appeared in the 2006 documentary "One Nation Under Siege"[2] in which he states, in relation to the attack on The Pentagon which took place on September 11, 2001: I look at the hole in The Pentagon, and I look at the size of an airplane that was supposed to have hit the Pentagon, and I said "The plane does not fit in that hole. So what did hit the Pentagon?" "
"A proponent of psychic warfare, Stubblebine was involved in a U.S. Military project to create "a breed of 'super soldier'" who would "have the ability to become invisible at will and to walk through walls". Stubblebine reportedly attempted to walk through walls himself, without success.[3] He features prominently in Jon Ronson's book The Men Who Stare at Goats.[6][7]"
Regarding Jon Ronson's book:
"The Men Who Stare at Goats (2004) is a book by Jon Ronson about the U.S. Army's exploration of New Age concepts and the potential military applications of the paranormal. The title refers to attempts to kill goats by staring at them. Research was carried out in part by Jon Ronson, but also by documentary filmmaker John Sergeant.[1]"
George Noory territory. Probably would make a delightful guest.
So, how does a Character like that become a Major General ????
And how many more like him are out there in positions of Power ????
Kind of Scary.
But if one dosent recognize the potential danger to the Globe from those reactors, esp#2 of Which the Core Liquefied beyond corium, and the one Thousand plus Spent Fuel rods precariously stewing in #4,with 6-7 percent of it being MOX fuel, well one can sleep well Knowing the Tepco Boyz and Japanese Govt are on top of things.
Pfffth, maybe read the official report from the U.S. Senator to his colleagues on the Hill.
Sorry I dont have a Sheperd Smith nor Steve Doocey critical analysis handy.
: )
By Ethan A. Huff
During a recent Congressional delegation trip to Japan, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) witnessed with his own eyes the horrific aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, which we have heard very little about from the media in recent months. The damage situation was apparently so severe, according to his account, that he wrote a letter to Ichiro Fujisaki, Ambassador of Japan, petitioning for more to be done, and offering any additional support and assistance that might help contain and resolve the situation as quickly as possible.
Sitting at the top of [Reactor 4], in a pool that is cracked, leaking and precarious even without an earthquake, are 1,565 fuel rods (give or take a few), some of them fresh fuel that was ready to go into the reactor on the morning of March 11 when the earthquake and tsunami hit, writes Consolo.
If they are MOX fuel, containing six percent plutonium, one fuel rod has the potential to kill 2.89 billion people.
Sen. Wyden is also asking U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Gregory Jaczko to assess how much additional assistance their agencies might be willing to provide to help Japan, and the entire world, avoid a nuclear catastrophe of Biblical proportions.
The scope of damage to the plants and to the surrounding area was far beyond what I expected and the scope of the challenges to the utility owner, the government of Japan, and to the people of the region are daunting, wrote Sen. Wyden in his letter, dated April 16, 2012.
The precarious status of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear units and the risk presented by the enormous inventory of radioactive materials and spent fuel in the event of further earthquake threats should be of concern to all and a focus of greater international support and assistance.
I wasn't questioning that at all.
But as you say, "a grain of salt'', LOL.
What about Dr. Jun Ro Fuse??
Watch the full video of his presentation in NYC last week. The numbers are staggering! Link
Much of that article, including the quoted passage, is based (lifted?) from an article by Christina Consolo who is a "Contributing writer for End the Lie and host of Nuked Radio" according to her article Fukushima is falling apart: are you ready? This is an echo chamber effect. Consolo's area of expertise is ophthalmic photography. From her vita posted on the original article:
"She has written, published, and contributed to numerous scientific research in retinal imaging and ophthalmogy for the past 24 years; She is also an award-winning biomedical photographer and maintains several websites to teach people about radiation, mitigation, and other nuclear issues."
Quite a leap there. I am sure she is sincere.
You can find his website I presume.
By David Weigel | Posted Monday, May 14, 2012, at 3:24 PM ET
On Friday, the libertarian, Chicago-based Heartland Institute made a routine-sounding announcement. It would "spin off its insurance research project effective May 31." The D.C.-based Center on Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate would break off; its director, Eli Lehrer, would found some new project. "We urge any individual, foundation, and corporation with an interest in insurance and related finance issues to contribute to Eli's new organization once it is up and running," said Heartland President Joseph Bast in a statement. "We look forward to working closely with Eli in the future."
Today, the spin-off -- dubbed the R Street Institute -- sent out a statement from its spokesman, R.J. Lehmann. Most of it was boilerplate about how the team of six Heartland refugees would keep working on "much the same portfolio of issues we already have been." Oh, one caveat:
There is one thing that will certainly change from ending our association with Heartland: R Street will not promote climate change skepticism.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/05/14/clim ate_change_believers_split_from_heartland_institut e.html
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Ouch !
Well, the Pacific has started one day ahead of "supposed schedule", and I guess it'll give us something to look at.
Looking forward to next season, especially with the return of some older members and the appearance of new ones.
Amazing! I would love to see continued video of the eye moving past and the back half eyewall suddenly ramping up.
As far as the storm the models have been variably showing for next week, I would not put any faith in even the system's development until it consistently appears within the one week time-frame.
Does anyone have a good link to a forum where this stuff is discussed by subject matter experts? I know they exist. I saw them when the disaster first unfolded. I just don't have a book mark.
I'm not here to debate the merits of these stories. If you want to debate the merits of my request, that is a different story.
I was there near the Seabee base on Pass Rd. in Gulfport and the sound of the approaching Backside was audible a full 2 minutes before it arrived.
Greetings.
I'm looking forward to a quiet one....
He is a Wizard ya know?
Same here. Is the AMO starting to shift back?
Dr. Jeff Masters Flight Met, NOAA plane flies through the eye of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988
We should still have another 10 years or so.
Oh well, at least the Pacific will keep me busy after the transition.
Good night all.
Enter Bud?
WTPZ41 KNHC 150233
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW FARTHER EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS MODEST
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BASED
ON THE MODEL PREDICTIONS...ALETTA HAS ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS WITHIN
WHICH TO INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
BEGINS TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STORM. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE...AND TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LGEM INDICATES DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD....AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.
BASED ON THE LATEST CENTER FIXES...INCLUDING ONE FROM A RECENT SSMIS
OVERPASS...ALETTA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER CLIP OR
280/10. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS PREDICTIONS...AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 10.5N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 10.8N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 11.1N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 11.4N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 11.7N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 12.0N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 12.5N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Neutral, in my experience. I don't know what the solid consensus on this is, though.
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