Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

2nd billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012: April 3 severe weather in Texas
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT en Mayo 11, 2012 +38
The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.


Figure 1. The EF-3 tornado that hit Forney, Texas, on April 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer ClockworkLemon


Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.



Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars
Damage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.

Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)

In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.

Have a great weekend, everyone!


Jeff Masters
Royse City Tornado (ClockworkLemon)
Tornado that hit Royse City 4/3/12
Royse City Tornado
Hail no (rjctx74)
Hail from tornados. April storms 2012
Hail no
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951. WxGeekVA 7:52 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
Member Since: Septiembre 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3311
952. NCHurricane2009 7:52 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



90E Floater


Hmmm...I usually get the floaters from this site:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

I don't see 92L or 90E floaters on that link...but thanks for posting your link...that helps...
Member Since: Septiembre 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357
953. nigel20 7:52 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
May 12, 2012

Daily SOI: 12.50
30 day avarage: 4.98
Member Since: Noviembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510
954. HurricaneDean07 7:52 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
I could see another blowup of convection, the convection is deceiving if you look at visible you can see the circulation is still steadily moving nne at 3-5 mph, but the convection is running off and dying... This time is when we need to see a blow up of convection if we are going to get a named storm out of this. This was why I was hesitant to be onboard with this, it looked impressive, but I was thinking ahead and wanted to see what was going to happen first.
Member Since: Octubre 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4035
955. nrtiwlnvragn 7:54 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Hmmm...I usually get the floaters from this site:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

I don't see 92L or 90E floaters on that link...but thanks for posting your link...that helps...



Link
Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8918
956. TropicalAnalystwx13 7:56 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
For the guy that said that disturbance east of 90E will becoming absorbed and that it wouldn't stay a separate entity, he is still wrong. You can see two separate areas of vorticity that are becoming farther and farther apart as 90E slowly moves west-northwest.

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25198
957. nigel20 7:58 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
Member Since: Noviembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510
958. HurricaneDean07 7:59 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
Good TCHP in the Caribbean.
Member Since: Octubre 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4035
959. NCHurricane2009 8:00 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



Link


Thanks for posting that link...I am bookmarking it now...its a better site for getting the floaters...
Member Since: Septiembre 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357
960. nigel20 8:02 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Good TCHP in the Caribbean.

Yeah, I saw that as well
Member Since: Noviembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510
961. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:02 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Good TCHP in the Caribbean.

Look at where 2010 was.



92L and 90E have just reminded me how anxious I am for hurricane season.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25198
962. Tropicsweatherpr 8:05 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Good TCHP in the Caribbean.


And also east of the Windward Islands.
Member Since: Abril 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8110
963. nigel20 8:12 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Look at where 2010 was.



92L and 90E have just reminded me how anxious I am for hurricane season.

Wow! I didn't realise how far ahead 2010 was....luckily most of the storms stayed away from the Caribbean during the peak of 2010's hurricane season
Member Since: Noviembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510
964. aspectre 8:17 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
Deleted cuz as it says below, New Blog
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
965. Tropicsweatherpr 8:21 PM GMT en Mayo 12, 2012    
New Blog!!
Member Since: Abril 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8110

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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