U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:09 PM GMT en Mayo 08, 2012

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The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.


Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.


Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.

Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Who pissed off the GFS?


Must be Cuba... That's the second run in the last three that's had a storm go straight over the island
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533. MTWX
What would you label Katrina as?? Just curious.

A) Homegrown
B) Cape Verde
C) Hybrid of both
D) Neither

Given that she was formed from the midlevel remnants of TD 10 (which I would consider a Cape Verde system), and a general tropical wave.
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506. hydrus 1:02 PM EDT on May 09, 2012

That great eye wall shot sends shivers up my spine; that particular shot was probably about 10 minutes before it hit the house I was living in at the time near Quail Roost Drive.......Fortunately, I was in Northern Miami with my Parents at this time (with no power) and very little damage North of the Airport which you can see in this shot. Very compact perfect storm.
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Who pissed off the GFS?

Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Ready for a hurricane Miami?



If not, don't worry... This is just the long range GFS
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1983 not to much activity, but Alicia did some damage.

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GFS and NAM both claim a cyclone is forming presently at 37N, 35W, and will drift southward and become a warm core system over the next 2 or 3 days.

GFS also forecasts a warm core system near Nicaragua and Honduras on the 18th(I know, 10 day forecast, for what it's worth.)
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Quoting ncstorm:





Boy is it nice seeing that... Even if it won't happen :)
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More storms rolling thru! I can get used to this!

Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting ncstorm:




And it gets...next "good" Alberto?
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Quoting pcola57:

Thanks GeogiaStormZ :)


Allright, pcola. You did it.
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Quoting Terradad:
Somebody needs to post the 360 hr frame from the latest GFS run (12z) - that will get the blog going!


what, this?

This far out and it wont verify.

It would be a nice TS if it did though.
980mb is your average cat1
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you can animate it as well.
Also, if you change the code that you have pasted, you can make severe=1 so that is shows warnings, etc.
1 is yes, 0 is no.


What is "maybe'?? 10
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Quoting jeffs713:

Eh, I wouldn't call that homegrown, as it is a typical gulf low that quickly transitions to a baroclinic (extratropical) low off the SE coast.

For "homegrown" a good example is Hurricane Alicia of 1983 or Hurricane Gabrielle of 2001.


Im sorry but I have to disagree..that was not part of a low..here is a model run..it transition on its own on the east coast of Florida and then became a Low after it started exited into the eastern atlantic

Link
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Where's Nigel? I like that Jamaican blogger; he's a good egg, =).
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Hurrican Jerry was HOMEGROWN back in 1989
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Quoting unf97:
A good example of an "homegrown" system was Tropical Storm Bret from July of last year. Bret formed on the tail end of a stationary frontal boundary which stalled off the SE US coast. The Low pressure drifted south from off the GA coast to just north of the Bahamas where conditions became better for development. Bret was designated a TD just north of Great Abaco Island and of course strenghtened to a strong TS before moving northeast out to sea.


and I dont think if I recalled correctly that it was picked up by the models..
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Quoting Terradad:
Somebody needs to post the 360 hr frame from the latest GFS run (12z) - that will get the blog going!




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Quoting pcola57:

Thanks GeogiaStormZ :)


you can animate it as well.
Also, if you change the code that you have pasted, you can make severe=1 so that is shows warnings, etc.
1 is yes, 0 is no.
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Somebody needs to post the 360 hr frame from the latest GFS run (12z) - that will get the blog going!
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513. MTWX
Regarding "home grown" storms... Does anyone remember K of '05?? She didn't get tagged until the Bahamas... Would this be considered "home grown" or are you primarily considering breakoff lows on the tail ends of fronts in the gulf, and things of that nature??
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512. unf97
A good example of an "homegrown" system was Tropical Storm Bret from July of last year. Bret formed on the tail end of a stationary frontal boundary which stalled off the SE US coast. The Low pressure drifted south from off the GA coast to just north of the Bahamas where conditions became better for development. Bret was designated a TD just north of Great Abaco Island and of course strenghtened to a strong TS before moving northeast out to sea.
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Quoting pcola57:


TY..will give it a try

Thanks GeogiaStormZ :)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


right click on the left side of the radar where it is black and choose copy image location and then paste that into the image menu above where you type your comments.


TY..will give it a try
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Quoting pcola57:
Finally getting rain here...but I can't post my WU radar..never tried to before..any suggestions?


right click on the left side of the radar where it is black and choose copy image location and then paste that into the image menu above where you type your comments.
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
QUESTION: Does anybody know what ever happened to Ike?

I haven't seen him on here since about '10.

I miss him! I hope him and his wife are doing OK.

He's from the Florida Panhandle. And BTW, for those of you who do not know this, Ike is TRULY one of the old-timers from this blog!

He's been a member of WU since about 2006 or so, I believe. Furthermore, he had been a regular blogger on here ever since then, both during the off-season and during our cane season as well. But as stated up above, ever since 2010 or so, he just vanished and he hasn't been seen blogging on here ever since then, =(.

It's quite disconcerting, I'd say!
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Finally getting rain here...but I can't post my WU radar..never tried to before..any suggestions?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Agree with the "not homegrown" comments as to Andrew as it was a long-track CV system........I should have used different language; I was referring to the decline then rapid intensification closer to the US. We have seen quite a few long-track storms over the years lose their traction after an encounter with the mountains in Haiti or Cuba then re-intensify in the Florida Straits or Gulf.

I suppose the most common example of a "homegrown" tropical storm are ones that form from frontal remnants exiting into the Gulf or the Atlantic which are pretty common late in the season as Fall approaches.
The wave that became Andrew moved off of Africa Aug-14 of that year...
Member Since: Septiembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


lol that is true. Hopefully we get as much rain as they are saying. Those precip maps have been completely off lately. That is if they were ever accurate in the first place


Unfortunately, the accuracy of spatial precipitation forecasts goes down as we get into the summer-type weather patterns. More rainfall is convective and driven by the location of outflow boundaries and areas that reach the convective temp. Some slight changes in the placement of storms one day can lead to drastic changes over a few day period, entirely messing up forecasts for a 5-day total.
This next batch of heavier rainfall potential seems to come from cut-off low in the SW US; the more organized nature of the system might suggest a slightly better forecast skill.
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Quoting ncstorm:
homegrown would be something like this--interesting on the 12Z GFS









Next weeks low will not be tropical in nature. It will be a baroclinic area of low pressure that develops over the Gulf and then redevelops off the SE coast of the US. It will bring with it very beneficial rains to some drought stricken areas.
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Quoting LaNina2012:
G'afternoon!

Good afternoon new blogger who I bet has never been on this site before (wink)

Good afternoon to everyone else as well...

Pretty amazing how quiet the severe weather season has been lately... Not much threat today either:

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Agree with the "not homegrown" comments as to Andrew as it was a long-track CV system........I should have used different language; I was referring to the decline then rapid intensification closer to the US. We have seen quite a few long-track storms over the years lose their traction after an encounter with the mountains in Haiti or Cuba then re-intensify in the Florida Straits or Gulf.

I suppose the most common example of a "homegrown" tropical storm are ones that form from frontal remnants exiting into the Gulf or the Atlantic which are pretty common late in the season as Fall approaches.
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Quoting ncstorm:
homegrown would be something like this--interesting on the 12Z GFS








Eh, I wouldn't call that homegrown, as it is a typical gulf low that quickly transitions to a baroclinic (extratropical) low off the SE coast.

For "homegrown" a good example is Hurricane Alicia of 1983 or Hurricane Gabrielle of 2001.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
Quoting WarEagle8:
#489 Keeperofthegate:

What is your opinion of the blob in the SW GOM? Is it the tail-end of the front or could it become more?


leftovers from tail end of a front if it becomes something it has to become its own enity at the moment anything is possible the season is approaching fast so the possible chances of getting something are becoming better every day now
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
homegrown would be something like this--interesting on the 12Z GFS







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Does anyone has a graphic of the PDO to see how is doing?
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#489 Keeperofthegate:

What is your opinion of the blob in the SW GOM? Is it the tail-end of the front or could it become more?
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Quoting presslord:


Weather Underground, Inc., is a private, for profit company. Jeff Masters is Director of Meteorology and holds equity in the company. He is not a grant funded scientist.


Why is it that I suspect TrunkMonkey does not believe that the U.S. government should be funding any scientific studies? Perhaps he feels our scientific studies should be funded by Venezuela or China?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


As far as ENSO numbers go, I'd say it's pretty similar. However, we can't compare ENSO numbers and not compare other numbers such as Atlantic SST anomalies. Let's take a look at the comparison between 2006 anomalies and 2012 anomalies:

2006


2012


After comparing those anomalies, there really isn't a whole lot of difference. Therefore, ENSO numbers and SST anomalies across the Atlantic could make 2006 an analog year. There are other factors as well, but those are two of the big ones.


Some folks down there in Peru are fearing another Super El Nino could be brewing beneath the surface as many dead bird and dolphin carcasses have been found along their shores. Similar to 1997 and I think 1981!!!

But a negative PDO might put a lid on it.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
It is approved. I blogged it too.

The global liquid freshwater ball is
based on the statistics that
fresh Groundwater volume is 2,526,000 cubic miles,
fresh Lakes 21,830 mi3
Swamps 2,752 mi3
Rivers 509 mi3

Their sphere would only be 170 miles in diameter or from Tampa to Jacksonville.

WOW, as a water manager, that seems SMALL!

Double checked with wiki P numbers in km3 and it came out the same.

Adding in the glaciers and ice caps the sphere reaches from San Antonio, Texas to Dallas. That is 251 miles or 404km.
That is IT, the sum total of freshwater.(oh, not counting atmosphere but that is tiny.(.001% of global water...little more than what is in swamps)


That does seem shockingly small. The sobering reality: Link

Hit home?
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andrew was not homegrown but it did follow an unusual course
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Quoting jeffs713:

I wouldn't call Andrew home-grown, since he was tagged as a TD over in the Cape Verde Islands, and didn't "hit his stride" until closer to home. IMO, whether a storm is tagged as a Cape Verde storm, or home-grown depends on where it is first tagged as a tropical cyclone.


I agree. Andrew was tracked as a TD then Storm across the entire Atlantic. Yes, conditions got favorable north of the islands.

I guess I'd like to ask what is the definition (or parameters) of "home grown?"
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Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Miami NWS Discussion

UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST OTHER THAN
TO MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY NOON
AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS LESS IMPRESSIVE TODAY AND TEMPS ALOFT HAVE
WARMED A BIT. HOWEVER, WITH DISTINCT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS,
THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS, WITH WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED AS STORM MOVEMENT WILL
AGAIN BE RATHER SLOW. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND LARGELY COME TO AN END BY 01Z.

THURSDAY HOWEVER COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODELS
HAVE NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD H5
SHORTWAVE WITH LOBES OF ENHANCED VORTICITY SWEEPING THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT CAPE VALUES AROUND 2200 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES NEAR -6 C. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE BEST FORCING STILL
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA AROUND THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON. ALL THIS SAID...BELIEVE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks, still no rain here, we need it..maybe we will get a sprinkle out of this front, not holding my breath though..dry air behind it..gee..............................


...And it looks like another front will come through by the middle of next week(Tuesday night/Wednesday morning) and if the models are correct, then a tropical system will transition over or just east of Florida. Then head up the US coast-helping to usher in another cold front the following week(perhaps around the 23/24th).

So it appears both camps will be happy thus far. Those that want rain(now, early next week, and perhaps early on the following week)...And those who don't want rainy season to start up just yet(you know, the boring every day run of the mill type pattern of hot and humid conditions with afternoon t-storms and no fronts to relieve us).
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Quoting jeffs713:

I see quite a few differences between the anomalies (the south Atlantic, the evolution of El Nino, the north Pacific). The PDO seems to be stronger this year, with a large pool of cool water off the Mexican coast. Also, the Indian Ocean is completely different, as is the South Atlantic.

Additionally, bear in mind that 2006 was a Neutral to El Nino year, while this year is a La Nina to El Nino(?) year.

I honestly see more dissimilar features than I see similar features.


I was just talking ENSO regions and Atlantic anomalies. The PDO has more to do with Atlantic hurricane tracks rather than Atlantic activity. The Indian Ocean does have a good bit to do with Atlantic activity, though.
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Sorry,I hope this works
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http://www.weathertap.com/hub/SAT_GULH_VIS_ANI
Interesting
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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