U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
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I have long felt that once the insurance companies get on board we will turn the corner.
LA smog: more cows than cars? By Scott K. Johnson
Much to the chagrin of California tourism promoters, smog is likely one of the things you picture when you think about the city of Los Angeles....
...And where does that air pollution come from? Smokestacks, tailpipes, and cows...
398 jeffs713: Houston has smog and ozone issues all summer - yet very few cattle. (actually, in the areas with cattle, we have LESS smog/ozone issues) And somehow, we have less issues on the weekends, when there are not as many cars on the road.
Yeah, Houston's been trading the title of Smog Capital of the USA with LosAngeles for a few years now, and providing very strong competition for even longer.
But that's mostly cuz the Texas versions of the EPA and OSHA have pretty much taken it as their mission to protect even the foulest of businesses from the efforts of the federal EnvironmentalProtectionAgency and OccupationalSafety&HealthAgency to clean up the mess.
Ya can't even get Texas to discuss imposing the CaliforniaStandard for gasoline-powered automobiles and light-trucks -- let alone for light-diesel-powered buses and heavy-trucks -- or to provide financial incentives for cargo ships to shut down their heavy-diesel/bunker-oil-powered generators in favor of drawing off the grid.
Heck, the TexasPublicUtilityCommission wouldn't even allow T.BoonePickens to create a joint-venture to build high-voltage transmission lines to connect his wind-turbine project to the interstate electricity grid lest that interstate connection be used by the federal EPA as a wedge to gain some leverage over Texas power-producers.
(While the location of Pickens' wind-turbine project prevented it from making a profit by selling its electricity solely to Texas, mandates and financial incentives given to electric-power utilities in other states did allow sufficient overall profits to be made from the extra profit margin produced by sales into the interstate markets, especially the peak power market)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012
FLC053-082015-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0006.120508T1908Z-120508T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HERNANDO FL-
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 415 PM EDT
* AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 2866 8239 2866 8229 2857 8224 2856 8236
$$
Please answer civily, I did not say AGW is not real.
Me too. Had only one or two days all winter that were too cold to hit the links.
YO!
The present warming may not be significant, but we cannot deny the fact that the world is experiencing more severe events than before...we could also have accelerated warming due to melting permafrost and glaciers which store methane..a greenhouse gas many times more potent than carbon dioxide. We must also remember that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is at a level not seen in over 600000 years and that is sure to cause present or future problems.
AT 400 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CORAL SPRINGS... MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... LARGE HAIL... DEADLY LIGHTNING... AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
Well, Occam's Razor would have to apply I'm assuming. Sure, the warming temperatures, melting ice caps, rising sea levels, etc. could be all natural and only coincidental to the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations. But that would require everything we know about the physics of greenhouse gases to be incorrect. And there would still have to be some hitherto undiscovered forcing to drive those changes.
Schellnhuber has lost all credibility with this statement, this is one of the most ignorant statements I've ever read.
Atlanta Metro. Our small office didn't turn the heat on all winter. We have some servers/hardware running. Enough heat generated to keep the temps mid low to mid 60s.
2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast
As explained in blog2088comment477, the SanGabriel/LosAngelesBasin was already known amongst the natives as The Land of Smoke long before the invention of automobiles, before the beginning of the IndustrializationRevolution, and even before Spanish missionaries "first discovered" the region.
1) The Midwest has lower (naturally-caused) baseline smog levels.
The SanGabriel/LosAngelesBasin (was filled with and) is surrounded by plants (especially conifers) that release turpenes, PolycyclicAromaticHydrocarbons, and other VolitileOrganicCompounds as well as nitrogen oxides.
The Midwest doesn't have the type&mix of natural flora that creates smog-producing chemicals at the levels emitted by the conifers and other plants found in&surrounding the SanGabriel/LosAngelesBasin. Nor at anything vaguely near the same density.
Any air pollution from industrialization, including that from industrialized agriculture, is added on top of a given region's baseline.
2) The Midwest as a whole is relatively flat, doesn't have the type of terrain that entraps smog. So smog tends to spread far and wide, thinning even on relatively still days. And a light wind thins it even further. Plus weather fronts pass through on a frequent if irregular basis, so winds subtantial enough to thin any smog are more likely to occur
The SanGabriel/LosAngelesBasin is surrounded by mountains and mountainous terrain.
What isn't often mentioned is that the LosAngeles region's coastal area rises relatively rapidly to more than 200feet(60metres) above sea level, and then the land rises more slowly to ~1500feet(450metres) at the foothills forming the base of the mountains. The mountains themselves are a mile(1.6kilometres) to nearly 2miles(3.2kilometres) high.
Light winds from the Pacific aren't sufficient to lift smog over those barriers, except through the lower gaps. That in turn causes a back pressure toward the beach areas that stills what-would-have-been light winds over most of the basin, and extends the smog pocket farther over the water.
So those light winds tend to pack smog more tightly rather than disperse it. With smog being packed rather than dispersed, any new smog-inducing chemicals produced in the region are added to the existing smog, and thus cause increasingly higher smog levels.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 PM AST TUE MAY 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A SOUTHWEST JET CORE STRENGTHENS OVER PUERTO RICO
BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEN SEVERAL SMALL
TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES ON FRIDAY.
AFTER SUNDAY A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PUTTING NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS BEFORE ARRIVING IN THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AND FORCE THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA SOME DRY AIR
WILL BE IMPORTED FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE MIXED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A
DRYING TREND...THAT WILL STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFTER A NEARLY RAIN FREE MORNING OVER PUERTO RICO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLODED OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH COAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRIER PERIOD THAT THE REST OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS
STATIONARY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AS AIR FROM WEST AFRICA BEGINS TO SEEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE WIDER AREA
HOWEVER...TO BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST THEN ARRIVES AND BRINGS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN A
TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SOME
AREAS WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT RAIN NOW THROUGH FRIDAY FOR URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09/00Z OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT TAF SITES WILL BE LITTLE AFFECTED EXCEPT FOR TJSJ LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR IN TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 09/22Z. LLVL WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO THE SE AND WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ABOVE 10 KFT ARE WSW-W INCREASING TO 70 KTS NEAR 40 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDS REMAIN TRANQUIL AT 4 FEET OR LESS...BUT
WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY NOW THROUGH TUESDAY TO 6 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 84 / 20 20 40 70
STT 76 86 77 85 / 30 30 50 60
My question is, how did co2 get that high way back then? If it was that high before man and their suv's, then is man truly the ones at fault or is this the earth being the earth. The climate has been changing long before man was around and will be changing long after we are gone. Now I believe man should be looking for alternative forms of energy to take the place of oil, coal, natural gas etc. It is the right thing to do. What I dislike is using only a 120 years of "supposedly reliable" data to project a system that changes over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years.
If has been shown through out history, that is has been a lot hotter that it is now and a lot cooler than it is now. All without man involved.
Nice job!
How are you sure of what it was 600,000 yrs ago, that could be wrong too?
Plus, if we were in an ice age or something back then, would that not affect the result?
(Note to all hostile bloggers, i did NOT say AGW does not exist)
All I am saying is this, a 120 years is not enough to make an accurate prediction of the future of such a dynamic system. Should man do his best to stop polluting, the answer is a resounding YES. But the climate will keep on changing no matter what man does.
Start here.
in other words; i question the sincerity of your inquiry, just based on the language you have used. the answers to your question(s) are publicly attainable.
this, btw, is not hostility. it is a friendly suggestion given the subtext of your statements, and the history of this blog. none that i know of who contribute in these comments are field specialists with peer reviewed publications on climate.
a succinct statement ;)
The observations say the global temperature is rising. Once this observation is accepted, then the question becomes "why". And here is where the science part happens... there are many possibilities why global temperature could be rising, and each one we can think of needs tested by asking questions and seeking answers as best we can, such "Can it happen?" and "How likely is this to happen?"
By finding the best answers to the questions, we can find the best fit as to what is really happening. When you plug all the possible causes into the observations, the best answer science has is that AGW is overwhelmingly likely to be casued by rising levels of CO2.
So the short answer is- we will probably never for abosolute certain, but all observable data point to rising CO2 as the cause of AGW, at least until a better answer shows itself.
This is my understanding of it all.
Natural variations in climate, atmospheric chemistry and CO2 density do occur with or without the presence of mankind. What drove CO2 levels higher/lower in the past can largely be attributed volcanic activity, the movement of the tectonic plates, extraterrestrial impacts, orbital shifts, axis shifts and other variables. These are all independent of mankind. What we are seeing today is mankind releasing tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere. This, in combination with mankind's destruction of the natural carbon sinks, is causing a rise in the atmospheric CO2 levels. When you add mankind's effects on top of the natural forces involved then it should be fairly clear to see that yes, we are impacting our climate beyond the natural forcing. While our mere presence negates any possibility for us to be benign in our world, we can assuredly become less cancerous to our planet. As the saying goes, "failure is not an option", if we wish to continue to live under these more hospitable conditions.
Nitrogen is a limiting factor in plant metabolism (assuming only CO2 changes which is not the only thing that will change). Studies have been done (somewhere in the Carolinas I think) which found the only winners were poison ivy and pollen. Grothar posted a link to an article that mentioned this.
It got that high various ways. Volcanic activity is one notable way.
We can tell that humans are responsible for the current warming through various methods, including the isotopic makeup of the carbon in the atmosphere.
We do not need to consider the entire history of the Earth, only the last few thousand years. That's true for a couple of reasons. First, it is true because the climate has been more or less level over that time period (as stable as climate is going to be, anyway). Second, and more importantly, is that that is because that is how long human civilization has been around.
Face it, the human species probably isn't going to die out if the temperature increases by 3°C. We can't be so sure that our civilization which depends upon industrial-scale agriculture will survive such a change. If civilization as we've known it goes kaput, that means that many, many people are going to die.
We need only consider the last twenty-five or thirty years if we want to find a solid temperature trend. It takes that long to allow us to confidently determine that a trend exists due to something other than natural variability.
The trend does indeed exist and the blame is human activity, primarily the CO2 we release through the burning of fossil fuel. There are other factors such as land use that are also important in the current warming.
Hope that helps.
I made up for it in my next post. lol
This may be hard to accept, but ice core data and tree ring data is like having a looking glass back into the past. These are not the only storage lockers for past climate data archiving.
Very interesting article in Forbes today regarding some of those EXPERTS who's view seem to be changing.BR>
Schellnhuber recently admitted in a speech to agricultural experts that: “warmer temperatures and high CO2 concentrations in the air could very well lead to higher agricultural yields.”
uh, what about the accompanying droughts and floods?
no way did we put that much carbon out...
I've noticed when driving south on I-95 at dusk or early evening, it gets I-don't-know-how-many degrees warmer when you leave the grassland flats and pass through the urban areas. Also my house and yard is considerable cooler than those down the street because it is surrounded by trees. An obvious fact.
By the way, a neighbor pointed out to me this morning that we have beetle infestations in our Bay trees, up and down the street. She says arborist wants 400 dollars per tree to treat every two years.
(Watch that Carolinas line, press may be on!!!)
I have lost the other link that explained that plants and trees can only absorb a certain amount of carbon. Yes, there will be larger yields in agricultural crops, but along with this is addtional stress is put on plants and trees, leading to insect infestation and disease. This science is so vast that it covers, oceanography, chemistry, agriculture, meteorology, entomology and a whole bunch of other -ologies and -graphies and -stries.
It is not just how hot it is. Everybody from 2nd grade on knows about previous ice-ages and warm periods. That is a moot point and doesn't even have to be mentioned in a conversation.
Im gonna go into my back yard and cut down my 600000 year old tree and be like oh yea thats that co2
If there's been an error, I'd suspect that the study authors didn't subtract enough of the naturally occuring smog from that produced by the cows.
But as I said before, it wouldn't particularly surprise me if the regional agricultural industry did produce more smog than automobiles.
Must have been a while since you've had an extended stay in LosAngeles. Yes, there was a time in LA when one couldn't*smoke a cigar cuz drawing the fumes of auto and industrial waste through the burning cigar would make the tobacco smoke uninhalably foul... even if one tried smoking the cigar on the beach.
But the automobile and light-truck pollution has gotten a LOT lower, industries reliant on cheaply venting their toxic chemical fumes into the outdoors have been forced to either install anti-pollution equipment or move production out of the region or close, and even diesel has been CaliforniaStandard reformulated to produce less of the particulates and other nasties when its burned.
Bus and heavy-truck diesel-motors would have been even cleaner, except the manufacturers pulled the underhanded trick of tuning the fuel injecters so that the fuel would burn at its cleanest specifically upon the AutomobileCleanAirStandard test "speeds" (actually, revs and horsepower), then detuning them from clean-burning to the settings that produced the highest economy and/or torque and/or horsepower for all other speeds&gearings.
The various AppellateCourts applauded those manufacturers for their cleverness in avoiding the intent of their legal agreement with California... and prevented California from pulling out of the state's end of the bargain or passing superceding laws until after the contract termination date.
* Assuming that the smoker had any taste buds left.
Thatsone thing about florida, thunderstorms dont move
So you want to treat this like finding an analog hurricane season? Not sure what your point is.
respect the people around this earth. understand that they have valuable perceptions and equal cognitive abilities as well.
nc, Climate change is not a subject just discussed in the Western Countries. Considering that most of India is impoverished, it is a surprising fact that in most places they have excellent education and most speak a number of languages, English being one of the official languages of India. Climate change is also a very real problem by tribal areas in Africa. Africa is quite active in finding questions to severe climate changes that have occurred in many grazing and farming areas. Here is a small link to an article you may find interesing.
Link
Having visited these countries frequently, it is surprising that even in the most impoverished areas, many people are quite informed about the rest of the world. They bombard me with questions even about our politics.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (NONAME)
1:00 AM WIT May 9 2012
=====================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 9.0S 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots.
forecast and intensity
======================
24 HRS: 9.2S 127.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 9.2S 124.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
I never said UNINTELLIGENT..I said poverish..I wasnt under the impression that tea farmers were wealthy people and in no way am I generalizing a selected group but I know India is not a country where a tea farmer can evolve into a rich entrepreneur. Your comment is why I detest the climate change discussion because the argument always goes back to hurling insults at people instead of addressing the issue which WAS how do tea farmers become aware of climate change? Are they shown graphs every day depicting the heat abnormlies in India, the drought ratio from 1822 to present or the melting of ice glaciers..I just want to know how they are led to become knowledgeable of "climate change". What evidence is shown to them on a daily basis that climate change is affecting their crops?
What money? Whose money?
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