Tornado hits France; unprecedented April heat in Europe
A rare EF-1 tornado with 73 - 112 mph winds (117 - 180 kph) hit Toulouse, France on Sunday, causing minor damage that included collapsed walls, uprooted trees, and cars moved out of place. The tornado touched down 15 - 20 km south of Toulouse in Southwest France at 7:10 pm local time, and baseball-sized hail (4 cm) also hit the region. According to the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD), this was the first tornado in France in 2012. French tornadoes are rare; there were just three tornadoes in the country in 2011. The European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) (as summarized by Wikipedia) lists 15 tornadoes for all of Europe so far in 2012. Most of the twisters (nine) were in Turkey. For comparison, an average of 495 tornadoes touched down in the U.S. during the period January - April over the years 2009 - 2011. A key reason for the lack of tornadoes in Europe is that the atmosphere is usually not unstable enough. Tornadoes require warm, moist, low-density air near the surface, and cold, dry, high-density air aloft to provide a lot of instability. The Baltic Sea and North Sea to the north of Europe moderate cold air flowing south from the pole, reducing the amount of instability over Europe.
Video 1. A rare French tornado kicks up dust near Toulouse, France on April 29, 2012.
Unprecedented April heat hits Central and Eastern Europe
A European heat wave of unparalleled intensity for so early in the year smashed all-time April heat records over much of Central and Eastern Europe on Saturday and Sunday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, new national April heat records were set in Belarus, Germany, Austria, Lithuania, Moldova, and Poland, and hundreds of stations in Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Russia recorded their hottest April temperatures on record. Moscow hit 28.6°C (84°F) on Sunday, the hottest April reading in the city since record keeping began 130 years ago. The culprit for the heat wave and French tornado is a large low pressure system off the coast of France whose counter-clockwise flow has been pumping hot air from the Sahara Desert northwards into Europe. The low is expected to continue to bring unusually hot weather to most of Central and Eastern Europe for the remainder of the week.
New all-time April national heat records set over the past few days:
Poland: 31.7°C (89.18°F) at Tomaszow on 4/29
Germany: 32.2°C (90.0°F) at Munich on 4/28
Austria: 31.8°C (89.2°F) at Ranshoten on 4/28
Belarus: 30.4°C ( 86.7°F) at Zitovici on 4/29
Moldova 32.5°C
Lithuania
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I see that the European heat wave is continuing today, with dozens of locations in mostly Eastern Europe seeing record high temperatures yet again (though it'll be tough on just the first of the month to see many/any all-time May high temperature records set).
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
359 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012
...A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE
DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
DISPERSIONS ABOVE 75 AND ERC VALUES ABOVE 20...
.WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INLAND FLORIDA
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ONE MORE DAY. HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO YIELD IMPRESSIVE DISPERSIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITIES...HIGH DISPERSIONS AND CONTINUED
HIGH ERC VALUES WILL TRANSLATE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS LATER TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN ON
THE HIGH SIDE ON WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL SUFFICIENTLY MOISTEN
TO PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
FLZ007>013-016>019-026-028-029-012015-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0029.120501T1800Z-120501T2200Z/
INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-
CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
359 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012 /259 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012/
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...
* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM 30 TO 35 PERCENT.
* DISPERSION...MAXIMUM 80 TO 98.
* ERC...30 TO 39.
* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.
&&
$$
BLOCK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
OKLAHOMA...
CANEY RIVER NEAR COLLINSVILLE AFFECTING ROGERS AND TULSA COUNTIES.
OKC131-143-012116-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0026.120501T2230Z-120502T0800Z/
/CVLO2.1.ER.120501T2230Z.120502T0000Z.120502T0200 Z.NO/
816 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE CANEY RIVER NEAR COLLINSVILLE.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
CANCELLED.
* AT 730 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.17 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE CANEY RIVER NEAR COLLINSVILLE IS EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR
26.2 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS.
$$
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_burst
Um, since when do windmills cause global warming? I thought wind energy would help prevent it by lowering emissions.... Is there proof of your claim?
There was a recent paper released that showed wind turbines actually increasing surface-level temperature (mostly at night) due to increased mixing of atmospheric layers. Basically, because of the turbines spinning at 200' AGL, the air at 200' is mixed to the surface, which increases the temps during the night, as the ground tends to be cooler. What isn't highlighted is that it has very little effect during the day, and the changes are slight, and dependent upon overall weather conditions anyway. Also, the effects are highly localized in nature, and there were not any correlations found on a mesoscale or regional level.
So basically... much ado about very little.
And speaking of windmills... help4u is just tilting at windmills again.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/Tripura/ Tornado-rips-through-Tripura-1-killed-200-injured/ Article1-848960.aspx
"A key reason for the lack of tornadoes in Europe is that the atmosphere is usually not unstable enough. Tornadoes require warm, moist, low-density air near the surface, and cold, dry, high-density air aloft to provide a lot of instability. The Baltic Sea and North Sea to the north of Europe moderate cold air flowing south from the pole, reducing the amount of instability over Europe."
How does the moderating effect of the North and Baltic seas on cold air masses at the surface affect the stability of the warm air masses at the surface required for tornado formation? I think the big players in reducing tornadoes in Europe would be a) the Alps which would prevent patterns with vertical shear from setting up b) the proximity of Africa and the Saharan desert would limit moisture. Is there a source for an elevated mixed layer to cap the atmosphere? Also, so much of the region is so far north ... though the jet stream has been moving north lately.
Director
National Hurricane Center
By Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
NOAA Communications & External Affairs
National Hurricane Center
You have said that the job as NHC Director was not your dream job, but it's been a great ride.
Oh absolutely. Most people, when they start out in their career, start thinking about where they might want to go, having a general idea. I was one of those when I was 28 years old and told my first MIC (meteorologist-in-charge) "I want your job someday". The MIC job in Houston was my dream job, it's the one I planned for and took promotions, transfers and what not in preparation for most of my career. When this (NHC) job came up, it was literally out of the blue. Max Mayfield called me up when he had decided to retire, and asked if I'd consider putting in for it. I'd never thought about even being remotely qualified for it.
Did you apply when Max retired?
Yeah, I was one of the candidates. I didn't get it the first go-around, but the opportunity came up again. By then, the hook had been set in my jaw, I couldn't spit it out, and so I threw my name in the ring again.
Any regrets?
Are you kidding? This has been an awesome experience! How many jobs do you have that will send you all around the Caribbean, put you on hurricane hunter airplanes, meet all kinds of dignitaries, brief two Presidents, and get to meet the top guns in the tropical business?
You trace your roots back to a "defective weather gene"?
If you ask most of us who work in operational meteorology, I think you will find the common connection that somewhere during the early years, like elementary school, was when we first got the bug about weather, and ended up focusing that by going to college and getting a career in it.
How much influence did your parents have on your early fascination with weather?
They pretty much would let me be what I wanted. My father wondered if I could be gainfully employed in that, he being an engineer. There wasn't much media exposure of the weather business then. It was still called the Weather Bureau. It wasn't like the "in your living room" capability that we have today.
Most of your dream job was as MIC of the Houston office.
When I went to Houston, I thought I made my nirvana and, sure enough, I spent 16 years there. I was able to implement the NEXRAD radar - it was the fifth one on the Gulf coast. The office was spun up from a small one-city local warning office to a full-fledged forecast office, and then, as the final thing as MIC, I orchestrated a colocation of the Galveston County Emergency Management in a hurricane-resistant facility.
Where was your first exposure to hurricanes?
When I was in the Navy, I flew into (1972's) Hurricane Agnes in a super constellation in the Gulf of Mexico, and then in a P-3. It was the first time Navy had used a P-3 for that.
Is there something that stands out from the hurricane hunter days?
It was something totally foreign to me. I had been on four airplane rides in my life up to that point. When you went on family vacations in the '50s and '60s, you went by car. Even good-employed people like my dad did not make the kind of money that it cost to fly on airplanes back then, for the fun of it if you will. I didn't know squat about flying and I enjoyed what I did while I was there. I was basically a draft-induced welcomed enlistee into the Navy. The fact that they made me a weather officer and I got to spend four years doing that was great, but that wasn't my be-all end-all career. I wanted to be a weather forecaster at the time.
Was the Navy an option?
My Navy career was marked by one outstanding feature: every job I had was done away with. Two years into the program, Vietnam was winding down and budget cuts were hitting the Navy. So, they stopped flying weather in the Navy. I was transferred to Iceland, which at that time as a 30-plus person fleet weather facility. I was there seven months when they decided they were going to cut it down to a 16 person detachment. Then they sent me down to Kingsville, Texas, as officer-in-charge. I was a lieutenant JG and relieved a lieutenant commander, and I was relieved by an E-7. Every job I did in the Navy was done away with.
When you first arrived at NHC as its director, were there things you set out to accomplish?
All of the previous directors had grown up through the hurricane program. I looked at this as an opportunity to bring the flavor of weather forecast offices into the hurricane center operations and see if we could improve collectively as an agency in the hurricane program. I think, by and large, we've been successful. We got a number of product changes that meshed with those needs, and we are well underway for making a modernized collaborative technique when we get some workstation equipment during the next several years.
The explosion of social media has had a big influence.
How that social media gets used over the next several years is very intriguing. It's one area where we may not have to do a whole lot as far as what it costs to get it done. We use social media as a dissemination tool, letting people know what we're sending out via a Facebook and Twitter account. Well, what if we could learn in real time what is being amongst each other said in the community? For example, in Vermont during (2011's) Irene, it wasn't until after the storm that we got feedback that people underestimated the threat there, even though we hadn't. We knew there was going to be a bad flood there and thought we had communicated that threat quite well. Maybe if we could get feedback from the social media during an on-going event that indicates something other than our message, then maybe we can turn the messaging back to get the right response in a difficult situation.
What made you want to come to the Hurricane Center?
I've wanted to come here since I was 10 years old. I wanted to be where the action was. And I come from a time when you couldn't find out very easily if there were storms out there, what the status was, or what was developing. You had to kill yourself just to get a satellite picture. You'll recall at Florida State when we were first there in the early '70s, just trying to get the data up on the roof of the Love Building was like obtaining a closely guarded secret. Nowadays, you can set up your own hurricane center at home with the Internet.
What was the best part of your job as NHC?
For me, the rhythm of coming in every day and interacting with a bunch of energetic people with ideas and knowledge of the tropical program is the thing I will miss the most actually.
And the worst part of the job?
It's planning, budgets, paperwork and answering e-mail. Guess what, everyone in management will say that.
I hear you have some plans for your Blackberry once you leave here.
Right now, it's a paperweight. I have an old metalwood club that's holding up a garage wall back in Texas. I may tee that sucker up and give it one more swing, and the Blackberry can be a one-time golf ball.
So, it's back to Texas?
Our lease here is good through July first, so we'll probably take a leisurely approach to leaving beautiful Miami in the dead of summer and move back to our house which we still have in League City, Texas. The only things I know for sure that I am going to do is join the Golf Club, get a new set of clubs and some lessons on how to use them, and try to lose the 30 pounds I've gained during the past four year
No...it's May
LOL..caught me slipping
By retrograding, do you mean a NorthernHemisphere low with a clockwise spin?
Or a normal low that's traveling in an unexpected direction for its location?
Morning dabirds...
We are about to get a taste of summer again as well, as forecasts are calling for highs near 90 until Sunday. Corn & Beans are going to go nuts this week after all this rain.
You can see the warm front defining itself from KC to St. Louis then hop-scotching across into Indiana with an associated MCV.
Despite the atmosphere being turned over this morning it will clear out very quickly and storms will again be likely this afternoon along that boundary which is already firing up some cumulus.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
933 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSOURI...
LITTLE OSAGE NEAR HORTON AFFECTING VERNON COUNTY
MARMATON RIVER NEAR NEVADA AFFECTING VERNON COUNTY
OSAGE RIVER NEAR SCHELL CITY AFFECTING BATES AND VERNON COUNTIES
SPRING RIVER NEAR WACO AFFECTING JASPER COUNTY
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
SPRING RIVER ABOVE BAXTER SPRINGS AFFECTING CHEROKEE COUNTY
.RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DUE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/
INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGF (ALL LOWER CASE)
&&
MOC097-020533-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0018.120501T1444Z-120503T1212Z/
/WCOM7.1.ER.120501T1444Z.120502T0000Z.120502T1212 Z.NO/
933 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE SPRING RIVER NEAR WACO.
* AT 8:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TO RISE TO NEAR 20.0 FEET BY THIS EVENING.THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. ROADS ON EAST SIDE OF MAPLE
ROAD BRIDGE FLOOD. FLOOD WATERS IMPACT LOW AREAS NEAR GALESBURG
UPSTREAM FROM THE WACO FORECAST POINT. BLACKBERRY CREEK FLOODS DUE
TO BACKWATER EFFECTS FROM THE SPRING RIVER.
&&
LAT...LON 3725 9462 3718 9462 3723 9451 3730 9454
$$
TERRY
http://www.esquire.com/features/joplin-tornado-st ories-1011
On May 22, a three-quarter-mile-wide tornado carved a six-mile-long path through Joplin, Missouri, killing 160. Unable to escape, two dozen strangers sought shelter in a gas station's walk-in cooler while the funnel ripped apart every building, car, and living thing around. This is their story.
"Some EML sources include:
1. Dry, elevated terrain of the interior, western United States
2. High plains of the United States
3. Sierra Madre Occidental of Old Mexico
3. Western desert areas of southern Africa
4. Desert areas of northern India
5. Parts of Spain
6. Saharan north Africa "
I mean it was drifting southwest on the models I saw, rather than moving east.
All good here. 65.0° sitting under a massive marine layer. It is all the way back 60-75 miles from the coast which is normal June type weather for here.
High for the next 5 days is topping out at 72°. 78/52 is normal here. So it is a bit cooler than it should be. Good weather for yard work if there is such a thing.
sheri
The 30 yr avg. dewpoint for May at Raleigh NC is 56 degrees. So, are you thinking today is too high? It's only a few degrees above average.
check this out.
Link
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF LEXINGTON KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS
SUCH..SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...MEAD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN INDIANA/OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 011844Z - 011945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA INTO OH THIS AFTERNOON. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN COVERAGE/VIGOR
EITHER SIDE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA. AS CLOUD
BREAKS ALLOW FOR FURTHER HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...THIS SAME UPWARD COVERAGE/INTENSITY TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING MCV ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D DERIVED WINDS ARE
INDICATIVE OF ENHANCED LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON THE E/SE
PERIPHERY OF THE MCV...WITH LOW LEVEL SRH ESPECIALLY ENHANCED
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED TO
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM INDIANAPOLIS
REFLECTS 0-1 KM SRH OF 300+ M2/S2. AS SUCH...A TORNADO THREAT MAY
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ASIDE FROM SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
..GUYER/MEAD.. 05/01/2012
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39148761 40358612 40328376 39118383 38628699 39148761
strange events everywhere
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED ONLY FEW
SMALL AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE...EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
FACT...PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 1.50 INCHES OR LESS TODAY
TO 2.00 INCHES OR EVEN MORE FROM WEDNESDAY THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY.
LATEST MODEL DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER
ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS
PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS PREVIOUS
SCENARIOS LIKE THIS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AND SOME FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
Sounds like a prank gone to far.
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