Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.
Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.
Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.
Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.
Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.
Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.
The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.
I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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some areas aready more than 1"...
and we have rain in ou forcast for next 8 days...
I gotta get ready to head out, but I hope everybody enjoys their day....
i live on site so iam at work and home 24hrs a day
Yeah, I woulda gone... but they refused to give up their eye teeth, those selfish %@$#@%#$!!!
Oh you are doing it for someone else...
I don't think I would like to be "on call" for work 24/7! Good luck supervising your job.
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2012/04/27 /3488816.htm
On the other hand, after 25 days of tropical inactivity, we may have a little some'n some'n going on in the Western Pacific.
I remember watching that pass on Wilma & not wanting to believe the numbers but seeing the crazy wind speeds & the heights told a story. Thanks for confirming that & bringing the first hand account.
Here's the incident in raw form go here for decoded.. & select the 04:28:00Z time stamp line.
SXXX50 KNHC 190437
AF308 0724A WILMA HDOB 24 KNHC
0428 1705N 08150W 01526 5182 120 066 194 194 066 01391 0000000000
0428. 1703N 08150W 01527 5192 118 069 192 192 071 01381 0000000000
0429 1702N 08151W 01524 5206 116 076 192 192 078 01364 0000000000
0429. 1701N 08152W 01527 5230 116 085 188 188 089 01343 0000000000
0430 1659N 08153W 01525 5268 120 099 186 186 104 01303 0000000000
0430. 1658N 08154W 01531 5327 117 114 178 178 119 01250 0000000000
0431 1657N 08154W 01525 5421 116 131 174 174 136 01151 0000000100
0431. 1656N 08155W 01540 5580 115 154 174 174 162 01006 0000000100
0432 1655N 08156W 01516 5823 118 128 184 184 161 00738 0000000100
0432. 1653N 08156W 01410 5935 133 036 254 242 052 00520 0000000000
0433 1652N 08156W 01555 5918 210 016 250 208 021 00682 0000000000
0433. 1650N 08156W 01916 5818 255 060 208 208 094 01144 0000000100
0434 1649N 08157W 02234 5599 268 133 140 140 140 01684 0000110110
0434. 1648N 08157W 02595 5373 265 127 124 124 136 02273 0000000100
0435 1646N 08157W 02683 5266 266 105 122 122 112 02468 0000000100
0435. 1645N 08157W 02879 5195 268 090 108 108 095 02735 0000000000
0436 1644N 08158W 03002 5147 273 077 112 112 081 02907 0000000000
0436. 1643N 08159W 03037 5116 277 067 112 112 070 02973 0000000000
0437 1641N 08200W 03040 5096 280 058 114 114 061 02996 0000000000
0437. 1640N 08201W 03050 5082 282 050 122 116 053 03020 0000000000
They climbed from ~ 1,558 feet to ~ 7,290 feet in 2 minutes..
MOISTURE
MAY SLOWLY AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME
FRAME WITH 10 TO 20% POPS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. BY MID WEEK PWATS
MAY INC INTO THE 1.4 TO 1.7 RANGE (UP FROM AROUND 1" NOW) AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC DRAGS DEEPER MOISTURE FROM AROUND FL AND
CUBA NW ACROSS THE GULF. THE EXTRA MOISTURE AND SLIGHT EROSION OF THE
CAP THROUGH TIME SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY MID WEEK ON,
BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AS ANY SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA.
Talk about an eye "wobbling". It was doing loop-de-loops :)
The Maximum Intensity of Hurricanes
Hurricane Maximum Intensity: Past and Present
GlobalWarming and Hurricanes
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1002 AM EDT SAT APR 28 2012
.UPDATE...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT FCST CONSIDERING
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY REMAINING OFFSHORE. RADAR SIGNATURES CURRENTLY
INDICATE A SFC TROUGH MAY BE LOCATED FROM NEAR NASSAU TO HST AND
THEN EXTENDING INTO THE GOMEX. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE THE
CLOSEST TO CURRENT TRENDS AND DO KEEP THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA KEYS NEAR AND ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
GFS, NAM AND RAPID REFRESH ALL SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
INTERIOR S FL BY 18-19Z AND THEN MOVES TOWARDS THE W CST THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.
SO BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE E
CST AND RAISE SLIGHTLY FOR COASTAL COLLIER.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CDT SAT APR 28 2012
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A
QUASI-ZONAL PROGRESSIVE BY TUESDAY /DAY 4/. MODIFIED CP AIR WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS...MS AND OH VALLEYS BENEATH
MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT. POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 4 DOWNSTREAM FROM AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND EJECTING THE IMPULSE NORTH
OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW EARLY WARM ADVECTION STORMS WILL AFFECT NWD BOUNDARY
LAYER RECOVERY.
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY /DAY 5/ AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SUPPORTED BY A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR.
..DIAL.. 04/28/2012
Warning: don't watch that one for too long. Makes your eyes spin
I wonder if there is an animation of Wilma's extreme intensification?
— Dr. Jeff Masters (Chief Meteorologist, Weather Underground, Inc.)
Emily is one much under-rated storm, principally because so many stunningly damaging and record-breaking storms followed.
Hurricane Emily (2005) From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hurricane Emily near peak intensity, July 16, 2005
Formed July 10, 2005
Dissipated July 21, 2005
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 160 mph (260 km/h)
Lowest pressure 929 mbar (hPa); 27.43 inHg
Fatalities 17 total
Damage $1 billion (2005 USD)
Areas affected Windward Islands, Jamaica, Honduras, Cayman Islands, Yucatn Peninsula, northeastern Mexico, and southern Texas
Part of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season
Hurricane Emily was a powerful, early season tropical cyclone that caused significant damage across the Caribbean Sea to Mexico. A Cape Verde-type hurricane, the storm formed on July 10, 2005, in the central Atlantic Ocean before passing through the Windward Islands on July 14. Tracking generally towards the west-northwest, the storm gradually intensified as it traversed the Caribbean, peaking as a Category 5 hurricane on July 16, marking the earliest date for a storm to do so during the course of a given year. The system subsequently made landfall in the Yucatn Peninsula as a Category 4. Quickly crossing the peninsula, Emily emerged into the Gulf of Mexico and reorganized. On July 20, the storm struck Tamaulipas as a major hurricane and rapidly dissipated within 24 hours.
When its central pressure fell to 929 mbar and its sustained winds reached 160 mph (260 km/h) on July 16, Emily became the strongest hurricane ever to form before August, breaking a record set by Hurricane Dennis just six days before. It was also the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin (beating Hurricane Allen's old record by nearly three weeks) and the only Category 5 hurricane ever recorded before August.
I remember Emily as a WOWZA of a storm, hugely powerful and defying typical hurricane behaviours [like not being cat 5 in July... lol]. However, many areas it impacted were struck by other storms later which overshadowed its effects and made Emily almost a "forgotten" storm in that remarkable 2005 season.
Records showed that the saltier parts of the ocean increased salinity -- or their salt content -- by 4 percent in the 50 years between 1950 and 2000. If the climate warms by an additional 2 or 3 degrees, the researchers project that the water cycle will turn over more quickly, intensifying by almost 25 percent.
BAHA! How are you? Pretty crappy day today... you think we'll get some T-storms forming later in the day?
Don't forget STC Yasi. 285-300km/h winds(177-186mph) at landfall.
However, I doubt there'll be much excitement.
Loop
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
510 AM EDT SAT APR 28 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-282115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
510 AM EDT SAT APR 28 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK. EAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BY TUESDAY RESULTING
IN DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING
TO 2 TO 4 FEET.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
$$
FLEMING
Formed October 15, 2005
Dissipated October 26, 2005
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
185 mph (295 km/h)
Lowest pressure 882 mbar (hPa); 26.05 inHg
(Record low in Atlantic)
Fatalities 23 direct, 39 indirect
Damage $29.1 billion (2005 USD)
Areas affected Jamaica, Haiti, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize, Yucatán Peninsula, Florida, Bahamas, Atlantic Canada
Just got a 4.1 Earthquake here. Shook a couple of seconds.
15+ miles North. looks like a fault near the San Andreas.
2012-04-28 15:07:27 UTC
that is why our Florida hurricane codes demand all our exterior doors open out...
so they cannot be blown in with hurricane winds...
well actually if it is bad eought the frame could break, if it were a really strong wind it could buckle and snap the door..
was your door an open to the inside door?
I know central and northeast Florida is very dry and having wild fires..
We have had a wetter than normal dry season down here...
wish some of this would come up your way..
OK, that makes sense because your area should have really strong codes also.
Anytime!
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