Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hey,

Don't forget about TS Marco in 2008

Quoting hurricane23:


Guess i'll throw in a few...

Guess I'll throw in the one and only ultimate loop of Igor.

Ivan 2004 needs a second look at, I'm made to understand
he destroyed the windspeed guage at airport clocking 219mph!

Quoting Grothar:
Hey,

Don't forget about TS Marco in 2008

Aww... Marco was very cute. =D

Not again. It looks like another round of rain for Puerto Rico next week. I say not again because so far in 2012,it has been above normal the rainfall.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
926 PM AST FRI APR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
THROUGH SUN THEN FLATTEN ON MON AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LIFTS OVER RIDGE AXIS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVERNIGHT
AS HEIGHTS RISE UNDER STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
OVERALL...VERY NICE WEATHER TOMORROW WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED SUN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS BUT MOISTURE REMAINS
MINIMAL. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVR THE NEXT 72 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENING MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD TROUGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLC WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST...TNCM AND TKPK IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT 28/16Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT AND
SAT AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN INTO MINIMAL SCA SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUN. SCEC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN BOTH OFFSHORE ATLC AND CARIB WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 81 / 0 10 20 30
STT 77 79 77 79 / 10 10 40 40

Quoting stormpetrol:
Ivan 2004 needs a second look at, I'm made to understand
he destroyed the windspeed guage at airport clocking 219mph!

What's up storm petrol...did anyone from the NHC check the Anemometer that took that measurement?

Quoting Ameister12:

O_0

Quick question....what is the highest flight level winds measured by recon?

wug- first round pick , tropical tidbits

Quoting Ameister12:

Marco is the perfect size for an Avatar, no need to resize, lol.

Quoting Ameister12:

Imagine Super Typhoon Tip vs Marco O.o

Quoting nigel20:

Those sst's in the EPAC are bombing. It appears that basin will have plenty of Tropical activity and my numbers are 18/10/5.

Cyclone Tip (largest on record) versus Cyclone Tracy (smallest on record before Marco).

Amazing differences in size. :P

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Imagine Super Typhoon Tip vs Marco O.o

Here's Tip vs Tracy. Tracy was the smallest TC of all time before Marco.

Quoting Ameister12:

Here's Tip vs Tracy. Tracy was the smallest TC of all time before Marco.

Copier... :P

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I know today's already a total bust but we may have one last shot... A totally alone supercell over SW Kansas with some decent rotation... Maybe just maybe

The storm is actually starting to organize quite well.

Quoting nigel20:

It looks like Negative NAO is comming soon.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Those sst's in the EPAC are bombing. It appears that basin will have plenty of Tropical activity and my numbers are 18/10/5.

Good number Twpr

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Copier... :P

You may have beaten by to the picture but your edited your comment to have text similarr to mine when I already posted my comment. So I think YOU'RE the copier. :P

Who even cares, back to weather.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It looks like Negative NAO is comming soon.

Yeah, it would allow steady warming of the MDR

What? There's a Severe Thunderstorm headed this way? It'll die out or miss me..

Quoting Ameister12:

You may have beaten by to the picture but your edited your comment to have text similarr to mine when I already posted my comment. So I think YOU'RE the copier. :P

I don't concur. I did go back and edit my comment, yes, but I did not notice your comment until afterwards. :P

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't concur. I did go back and edit my comment, yes, but I did not notice your comment until afterwards. :P

Moving on...... >_>

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
April 2012 really has been a let down in terms of tornado activity. I guess that is a good thing though, considering how active (understatement) last season was.

I wouldn't go that far, but it's definitely not last year.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I wouldn't go that far, but it's definitely not last year.

Severe weather will probably heat up quite a bit in May. Should be a more typical severe weather season.

It's nice to see something closer to average for a change. I got into weather in 2002, and have yet to really find a year that wasn't rampant with extremes. Just for once I'd like to experience something akin to normalcy.

Quoting KoritheMan:
It's nice to see something closer to average for a change. I got into weather in 2002, and have yet to really find a year that wasn't rampant with extremes. Just for once I'd like to experience something akin to normalcy.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. We have May and then hurricane season to contend with.

Quoting KoritheMan:
It's nice to see something closer to average for a change. I got into weather in 2002, and have yet to really find a year that wasn't rampant with extremes. Just for once I'd like to experience something akin to normalcy.

What's up Korithe...what is the highest flight level wind measurement by recon?

Quoting nigel20:

What's up Korithe...what is the highest flight level wind measurement by recon?

If I'm not mistaken, 228 mph in Gilbert. That could have been disproven though.

If so, Isabel at 205 mph.

Yeah I've got that feeling that while in total activity this hurricane season won't be very busy, we will have some major surprises headed our way--just wait. I call for some land mass to be hit hard, so don't underestimate this hurricane season just yet--just because they call for a relatively calm one in total storms.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If I'm not mistaken, 228 mph in Gilbert. That could have been disproven though.

If so, Isabel at 205 mph.

OK, thanks much

Quoting nigel20:

What's up Korithe...what is the highest flight level wind measurement by recon?

No idea. I generally don't keep tabs on that sort of thing.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. We have May and then hurricane season to contend with.

I meant so far, obviously.

REALLY excited about the 2012 HWRF upgrade coming in mid-May...

Highly suggest reading the full doc here

- Implement triple-nesting capability with a new centroid
based nest movement algorithm
- Configure the inner-most grid at cloud-resolving 3 km
horizontal resolution with explicit representation of
convective processes
- Implementation of GFS Shallow Convection
- Modifications to SAS deep convection, GFS PBL, GFDL
surface physics and Ferrier microphysics
parameterizations suitable for higher resolution and
based on observational findings
- Redesign of vortex initialization for 3 km resolution
with improved interpolation algorithms and better
representation of composite storm
- Improved POM initialization in the Atlantic domain and
new 1-D ocean coupling for Eastern Pacific basin
- Upgrade the HWRF GSI to V3.5 and use of new Hybrid
GSI/GFS for initial and boundary conditions once the
Hybrid GSI/GFS has been implemented operationally
- Improvements to HWRF Unified Post Processor to generate new
SSM/I simulated microwave satellite imagery products
***- Very high-resolution (every 5 sec.) storm tracker output
to support National Hurricane Center (NHC) operations

Test results from the combination of these upgrades showed significantly improved track, intensity and structure forecast skills and improved track, intensity and storm radius forecast biases in both Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins.

Product Changes:

The following elements will be added to the HWRF model output GRIB files:

-simulated microwave satellite imagery products from SSM/I-S
sensors

Quoting KoritheMan:


No idea. I generally don't keep tabs on that sort of thing.

No problem

Quoting KoritheMan:
It's nice to see something closer to average for a change. I got into weather in 2002, and have yet to really find a year that wasn't rampant with extremes. Just for once I'd like to experience something akin to normalcy.

normal thats something we will never see again

I have just issued a full tropical discussion hot-of-the-press. I don't expect the caribbean disturbance to develop...but just in case this changes I am going ahead and getting my bearings of the Atalntic Ocean dynamics...

This is a new type of discussion I will be doing daily during the upcoming hurricane season. Feedback/questions/etc can help make it better...let me know by posting commments...

Sup Keep, Slow Night....

Well, Good Night All. Sleep Well and Stay Safe. SoCal Out.....

Quoting PedleyCA:
Sup Keep, Slow Night....

yeah its slow just came inside from checkin out how cold its outside my door and its frosty tonight 35 going down to 28 29 maybe

Quoting PedleyCA:
Sup Keep, Slow Night....

Well...I don't know if it is that slow. That Caribbean activity is making a lot of rain for many islands in the area. Nigel...how much rain have you gotten from this?

good night PEDley

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...I don't know if it is that slow. That Caribbean activity is making a lot of rain for many islands in the area. Nigel...how much rain have you gotten from this?

1/2 an inch measured in the Kingston area, but up to 2 inches measured in sections of Montego Bay

Quoting nigel20:

1/2 an inch measured in the Kingston area, but up to 2 inches measured in sections of Montego Bay

Thanks for that...its great to have bloggers in the Caribbean as well...pretty awesome...

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Thanks for that...its great to have bloggers in the Caribbean as well...pretty awesome...

No problem NCH2009

it most be that time of year LOL the gfs is forcastinf a hurricane N of PR

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah its slow just came inside from checkin out how cold its outside my door and its frosty tonight 35 going down to 28 29 maybe

:)