Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

March 2012: Earth's 16th warmest on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:30 PM GMT en Abril 25, 2012 +33
March 2012 was the globe's 16th warmest March on record, but the coolest March since 1999, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). March 2012 was the 17th warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2012 global land temperatures were the 18th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 14th warmest on record. The relatively cool global temperatures were due, in part, to the lingering effects of the La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific that is now ending. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were near average, the 17th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). March temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st or 2nd coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during March was near average, ranking 23rd largest (24th smallest) in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March in his March 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, Norway, Iceland, and Scotland all recorded their hottest March temperatures on record, and it was the warmest March in U.S. history. Portions of Italy received no measurable precipitation whatsoever, and for most of southern Europe, it was the driest March on record. In the U.K. it was the driest March since 1953.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2012. The U.S. and Canada experienced the most extreme warmth of anywhere in the globe during March. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña conditions no longer present
La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.4°C below average during March and the the first half of April. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models (48%) predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 35% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 2. Ice age data show that first-year ice made up 75% of the Arctic sea ice cover this March. Thicker multi-year ice used to make up around a quarter of the Arctic sea ice cover. Now it constitutes only 2%. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

March Arctic sea ice extent ninth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its ninth lowest extent on record in March, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the highest since 2008 and one of the highest March extents in the past decade. Ice extent as of April 23 was close to average, one of the few times during the past decade that has occurred. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic. During the 1980s, more than 20% of the Arctic ice was more than 4 years old; this March, that fraction was just 2%. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.

I'll have a new post by Friday.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
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251. PlazaRed 12:03 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Tribucanes:
Only good thing about Trump is his hair won't move in a Cat. 5, what a crony! 1.2 billion for a golf course, wonder how many wind turbines he could have built? In fact, golf courses in America alone make up the size of Rhode Island. Should plant trees on all of them, and wind turbines where applicable. Have no problem with golf, but the need for drastic change is now; Donald............your fired.

Some people just have to get reality into perspective:-
This Trump Chappy has modified an almost insignificantly small part of the planet which spends a lot of its time as borderline tundra, in order that a few selected rich can hit small balls about with oddly shaped clubs!
Now from an extraterrestrials point of view, these ball knockers should be grateful that the general background populace have had the foresight to put up windmills in order that the future generations of ball knockers will not suffocate from heat and CO2 before they expire from alcholic poisoning after their pointless trudge to hole 19 as they call it.
With a bit of clever marketing the view of windmills could bring in 'green' golfers, who appreciate that humanity might have a "wind blown future?"
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252. aspectre 12:04 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
214 LargoFl: Donald Trump on Wednesday swept into Scotland%u2019s parliament to demand the country end plans for an offshore wind farm he fears will spoil the view at his exclusive new $750-million-pound ($1.2-billion) golf resort.

The same golf course that nobody* in the area wants because it'll spoil the scenery... and shut down longheld public rights-of-way for walkers, hikers, riders, bicyclists, and tourists.

* Except for potential members (ie social-climbers), building contractors, and employees.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
253. Grothar 12:10 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


With the exception of Wilma, Dean and Felix where the most impressive hurricanes I have ever witnessed. Proof that just because it doesn't hit the USA, that doesn't mean it's effects aren't widespread and devastating.


Those were some impressive ones, but I always remember Gilbert. I remember seeing on the WC that it was so strong at one point, it was pulling air from below the equator; something which they had never seen. Can anyone find that report?




And Mitch took so many lives. Terrible storm.

Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19507
254. Ameister12 12:10 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Hurricane Igor:
20100914 | 2345 | ATL | 7.0 (DT) | 7.0 (FT) | 7.0 (CI) | 18.9 | 53.4 | 921 | 140 | 11L | IGOR | 1 | 10 | KL
=========
On September 14 at 11:45 pm when this info was recorded, Igor was a Category 5 with 160 mph and a pressure of 921 mbars.
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255. nigel20 12:14 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
April 25, SST Anomaly
Member Since: Noviembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512
256. nigel20 12:18 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Those were some impressive ones, but I always remember Gilbert. I remember seeing on the WC that it was so strong at one point, it was pulling air from below the equator; something which they had never seen. Can anyone find that report?




And Mitch took so many lives. Terrible storm.


Gilbert was massive it was over 500 miles across, it is also Jamaica's costliest hurricane...Mitch was impressive and deadly, with over 15000 deaths
Member Since: Noviembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512
257. CybrTeddy 12:18 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

*cough*





Does anybody have a link to SAB/TAFB? I lost it. :\


Dean at landfall far exceeded either of them, imo.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20201
258. NCHurricane2009 12:19 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting nigel20:
Radar showing that we only had a glancing blow with Dean


I thought Hurricane Dean's north core pounded Jamaica pretty harsh (especially on Jamaica's south coast). How was your experience?

You know its off season by the way when Donald Trump takes center stage here...
Member Since: Septiembre 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357
259. Tribucanes 12:19 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Good one Plaza lol somewhere Donald is reading your post thinking hey.....I think I could market that!
Member Since: Abril 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1622
260. Tropicsweatherpr 12:21 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting nigel20:
April 25, SST Anomaly


Here is tonight's update of the 30 day SOI.

Member Since: Abril 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8124
261. aspectre 12:28 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
86 jeffs713 The pattern on the charts Hydrus posted would actually push storms further south, keeping them from landfall (like Dean and Felix in 2007).

Make that "...from landfall in the contiguous US..."
Both Dean and Felix made landfalls elsewhere as Cat5s.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
262. PlazaRed 12:30 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Just deviating back to the blog heading; as I do from time to time, I sort of noticed that Greenland is about to become an ice free island if the first year ice all melts this season.
I think that this might signal the beginning of the end of summer ice in the Arctic as we know it, ( did Spok say that?)
If we get a season as similar to the last 2 with a lot of storms heading off up in the general direction of Greenland, then that warmed air may just tip the scales in favour of Greenland being ice free on the majority of its shorelines.
I would not personally know if this would be the first time in recent recorded history that this has occurred but the surface currents will then be free to circulate and erode more northerly regions of surface ice.
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264. nigel20 12:32 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I thought Hurricane Dean's north core pounded Jamaica pretty harsh (especially on Jamaica's south coast). How was your experience?

You know its off season by the way when Donald Trump takes center stage here...

The south central end of the island experienced the worst conditions, but that part of Jamaica is not highly populated....there some strong wind gust in the interior Jamaica due to the higher elevation, we also had some coastal surge on the south....luckily both Ivan and Dean wobble to the west just before impact
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266. PlazaRed 12:33 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Tribucanes:
Good one Plaza lol somewhere Donald is reading your post thinking hey.....I think I could market that!

Somewhere in the back of the mind! you also have to think, that by posting some things, there might be a sinister knock on the door!
Member Since: Enero 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442
267. Xyrus2000 12:34 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:
anyone here read online "the Independant"......................here is the Headline....pretty scary too if you ask me.........................Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer


It's certainly a possibility. Given how thin the ice is all it would take is the right weather pattern and it would make the pole ice free. It's been relatively close a couple of times over the past few years.

Member Since: Octubre 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
268. nigel20 12:34 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Here is tonight's update of the 30 day SOI.


The SOI is hovering just under 7.0
Member Since: Noviembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512
269. aspectre 12:37 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
87 Xyrus2000: James Lovelock used to hold a very extreme position that was not backed up by the science and not endorsed by climate scientists in general.

Make that "...at all." eg Any back-of-the-envelope calculation would show that even having the Earth's total insolation -- ie the total amount of sunlight falling on Earth -- focused exclusively on Antarctica would not cause its icecap to melt as rapidly as he was saying.
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270. Grothar 12:40 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Hurricanes2012:
Grothar, compatriota, que bola, mi viejo?

Manolo, como anda todo por alla riba en Broward County?


que bola, acere? No lo creo!
Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19507
271. NCHurricane2009 12:41 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
LOL...found some old hurricane season videos from the 1980s on youtube.

Some of the meteorologists in these videos are nuts. Particulary the first meterologist in this video covering Tropical Storm Bob 1985...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZturdeRpUg
Member Since: Septiembre 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357
272. Grothar 12:41 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Tribucanes:
Good one Plaza lol somewhere Donald is reading your post thinking hey.....I think I could market that!


Either that, or he wants to fire us all.
Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19507
273. Xyrus2000 12:44 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:
while surfing the web i came across a site that..well what do you think about this...COULD it happen, since this IS..2012.......................................... .."NASA has verified that there is now positive magnetism energy appearing in the south pole, which is normally supposed to be in the north pole only. The South pole is supposed to only have a negative magnetic charge. In the past 150 years, there has been a migration between the north and south poles and their respective magnetic charges of positive and negative magnetic reversal. Another thing that NASA has observed is that the sun literally reverses its poles every 11 years at the peak of each sunspot cycle. The solar pole shift will happen again in 2012 exactly. There is some concern about the extra solar activity that will be happening in the sun during this cycle, solar cycle 24, but there is some comfort in the fact that 2012 is just another normal time for the solar cycle to happen. It is natural...the article also went on to say OUR poles will reverse this year


Post links please.

Just based on your post, I would say at least some of the info is incorrect. The sun doesn't really have any fixed poles. It has many poles and they move about quite frequently.

The poles on Earth are always moving as well. They don't change nearly as quickly as the sun, but they poles don't really stay fixed.

Pole reversals on Earth do happen but the take a long time to occur. They don't happen in the span of a year.

Also, even during a pole reversal sequence the Earth still has plenty of magnetic field. It's weakened to be sure, but it is still there, and it is more than enough to keep the planet adequately shielded. And even if it went away entirely the Earth's relatively thick atmosphere would still provide protection.
Member Since: Octubre 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
275. washingtonian115 12:50 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Ameister12:
Hurricane Igor:
20100914 | 2345 | ATL | 7.0 (DT) | 7.0 (FT) | 7.0 (CI) | 18.9 | 53.4 | 921 | 140 | 11L | IGOR | 1 | 10 | KL
=========
On September 14 at 11:45 pm when this info was recorded, Igor was a Category 5 with 160 mph and a pressure of 921 mbars.
I knew Igor was always a 5..but he looked like a 10.
Member Since: Agosto 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10618
276. PlazaRed 12:51 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


que bola, acere? No lo creo!

No es mejor:-
Lo soy que soy?
Estoy solamente aqui, para ti , en este momento?
que bola, es un juego de ninos!
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277. Grothar 12:51 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Who said we didn't have great technology years ago??

Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19507
278. nigel20 12:54 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
I knew Igor was always a 5..but he looked like a 10.

Igor was large as well...what's up W115?
Member Since: Noviembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512
279. Grothar 12:54 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting PlazaRed:

No es mejor:-
Lo soy que soy?
Estoy solamente aqui, para ti , en este momento?
que bloa, es un juego de ninos!



Hay una canción con ese nombre.

How you doing? Are you back in the chilly British Isles or in sunny Spain?
Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19507
280. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:00 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dean at landfall far exceeded either of them, imo.

We were talking about how impressive the hurricanes were, not the strength at which they made landfall. I'd say a storm going from a post-tropical cyclone to a Category 4 in two days is pretty impressive, is it not?
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215
281. NCHurricane2009 1:00 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
I knew Igor was always a 5..but he looked like a 10.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL112010_Igor.pdf

The National Hurricane Center post-storm report says it was officially at 135 knots (155 mph) and 924 mb at peak intensity...which made it at the very top of Cat 4. But with it knocking on the doorstep of cat 5...I can see why some believe it was while others don't...
Member Since: Septiembre 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357
282. owenowen 1:03 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Lol, the spin is tiring. Next year it will be a cool summer but labeled the warmest since the groundhog saw his shadow or some such such BS.
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283. nigel20 1:03 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:
Who said we didn't have great technology years ago??


Nothing beats the marker
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284. WxGeekVA 1:03 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    


Gilbert coverage.
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285. aspectre 1:04 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
161 StormTracker2K: EX 91L is looking better can could make a comeback.

Last I saw of 91L, it was travelling northwestward from Bermuda. I don't see how it could have gotten to either east of the Bahamas or east of the Caribbean...
...which are the only two systems that I see on your link that appear to be somewhat circular.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
287. washingtonian115 1:07 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting nigel20:

Igor was large as well...what's up W115?
Hey Nigel.Yeah Igor was big.I think it was one of the biggest storms of the
Atlantic.
Member Since: Agosto 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10618
288. Tribucanes 1:08 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
And if that was the case, would they really knock? Lets remember what free speech is. Everyone is o.k with what is mainstream speech, free speech in America is about allowing unpopular speech. I'm just a modern day Paul Revere........the NWO is coming, the NWO is coming, hope people are listening.
Member Since: Abril 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1622
289. CybrTeddy 1:09 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We were talking about how impressive the hurricanes were, not the strength at which they made landfall. I'd say a storm going from a post-tropical cyclone to a Category 4 in two days is pretty impressive, is it not?


Like Felix, for example. He became a Category 5 in two days.

Rina became a major hurricane in 24 hours too.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20201
290. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:09 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
"Folks, it doesn't get any bigger than this...this is HUGE...and if it comes here, you'll remember it."

Well, I guess that statement said by Jeff Morrow came out true.

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215
291. PlazaRed 1:10 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:



Hay una cancin con ese nombre.

How you doing? Are you back in the chilly British Isles or in sunny Spain?

Buenas Noches Caballero.
Estoy aqui en Espana y el tiempo is moy bueno.
La isla de frio u viento, con mucho humidad no es para mi y toda mis obras estan terminado.
Como la cosa's ahora? Donde andas?
Tenemoms una peste aqui? o No?

I have been back in Spain now for 2 months and there is a drought here of biblical proportions. The sun shines most of the time but they are having 90 MPH winds on the north coast at the moment with torrential rains.
A large deep low pressure is affecting the British Isles with powerful thunder storms and gales, it accompanies a return to long term financial recession.
Sort of Depression/Recession etc, rhymes
Que Sera, Srea?
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292. NCHurricane2009 1:10 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting owenowen:
Lol, the spin is tiring. Next year it will be a cool summer but labeled the warmest since the groundhog saw his shadow or some such such BS.


Groundhog's day & other forms of "conventional wisdom" don't apply when the jet stream is loopy like it has been this year...
Member Since: Septiembre 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357
294. ncstorm 1:17 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
you have to say that the most "siked" out hurricane was Floyd..first Florida East Coast had to evacuate..sike! Then GA East coast had to evacuate..sike! then SC east coast had to evacuate...sike! and then it finally made up its mind and hit NC..priceless
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8366
295. Tazmanian 1:18 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Hurricanes2012:
Grotha, do you believe that we'll be hit by anything down here this summer?

Oh great Wise one!



poof
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111325
296. nigel20 1:18 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey Nigel.Yeah Igor was big.I think it was one of the biggest storms of the
Atlantic.

Yes it was
Member Since: Noviembre 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4512
297. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:23 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting ncstorm:
you have to say that the most "siked" out hurricane was Floyd..first Florida East Coast had to evacuate..sike! Then GA East coast had to evacuate..sike! then SC east coast had to evacuate...sike! and then it finally made up its mind and hit NC..priceless

My dad has pictures of where they were on a boat and the water was up past the stop sign..

That's a lot of water.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215
299. NCHurricane2009 1:24 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:
Who said we didn't have great technology years ago??



ROFL...LOL...I found that video hugely entertaining...

The antics they used to report weather in the 1960s are better than today's (I liked Wilbur the bird and Clammity Clam). Apparently they had to scribble the weather map from memory (unlike today's meteorlogists on TV where the maps are auto-generated on a silver platter).
Member Since: Septiembre 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357
301. DoctorDave1 1:27 AM GMT en Abril 26, 2012    
" However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic."

Wishful thinking. :)
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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