Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:26 AM GMT en Abril 19, 2012 | +26 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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35.1n57.3w, 33.9n58.5w, 32.7n59.2w, 31.9n59.0w, 31.3n58.2w, 31.0n57.4w, 30.7n56.8w, 30.3n56.4w
91L has made a partial S-turn heading SouthEastward, and the previous update's prediction models
MEO is Roanoake,NorthCarolina -- PBI is PalmBeach,Florida -- BDA is Bermuda
No, Its APRIL. Get a grip.
So? We had an invest in Febuary and one right now. SSTs are high.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
137 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
AT 120 PM EDT DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
IN RUSKIN FL WAS SHOWING SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AS A WEAK LOW OVER NORTHERN
FL SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE NE LATER TONIGHT...HELPING IN KEEPING SW
FLOW AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR FUELING THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE NATURE COAST WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MORE THAN THE REST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS...WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROVIDING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS COULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL...INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNRISE.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF MID/LATE MORNING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSHING TOWARDS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INLAND AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE RAINY TREND CONTINUES WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH
30 PERCENT CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIKELY SHOWERS
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
GFS/EURO/NAM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE GENERAL SOLUTION ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A SHARPLY DEEPENING TROUGH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE GULF REGION AND A MID LVL CLOSED LOW SWEEPING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THE IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THE OUTCOME OF
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY CAN STILL UNDERGO CHANGES DEPENDING ON HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SITUATION DURING THE NEXT RUNS. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP 60 POPS/RAIN LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ADJUST
ACCORDINGLY WITH UPCOMING MODEL DATA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S....COOLER OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND ARE NOW BRINGING THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
THEN OPENING IT UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
SUNDAY. THIS IN TURN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY AND THEN EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING SUNDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL SEE SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED AS IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND/OR INSTABILITY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
I think people have corrected him several times, even provided links to information to understand how/why it is calculated the way it is, yet his rantings about the drought monitor continue.
Local news is reporting his name now... he was a doctor from Slidell. Original reports were that the plane had somehow reached the water surface in a "soft landing" was was floating right-side-up. It has since sunk into the gulf and there is no sign of the pilot.
http://www.wwltv.com/news/Plane-from-Slidell-with -unresponsive-pilot-spotted-near-Florida-148115745 .html
I would be interested to hear how this independent weather firm, WeatherAction, came up with that forecast. Even when it was quite clear that we were heading into a warm stretch in April, I do not recall any official forecasts for it to be a near record warm March for the US... and there's a reason for that.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1223 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-200430-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1223 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TRACK TOWARD THE COAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OVERHEAD TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTING...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.
.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE MAINLAND TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOATERS ON INLAND
LAKES...RIVERS...THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD KEEP A WEATHER WATCH TO THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SKIES FOR APPROACHING WEATHER.
.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ANY NEW FIRES
WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING QUICKLY MAKING CONTAINMENT DIFFICULT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH
THROUGH THE GULF...LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW PRIMED
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME OVER FLORIDA FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
AFFECT THE STATE. NEVERTHELESS..THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND AFFECT FLORIDA BETWEEN LATE ON SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE EXPECTED TIMING AND IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REFINED AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION
REGARDING THE STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
$$
BRAGAW
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
255 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012
FLZ039-043-050>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-853 -873-192000-
LEVY-SUMTER-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HA RDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
255 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012
.NOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY SCATTERED OVER
THE MARINE WATERS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
MARINERS CAN EXPECT A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE WATERS.
$$
RHEA
If you want to be in a storm, please keep to yourself about your wishcasting. It generally isn't terribly accepted here.
I am also interested in the possibility of high, non-thunderstorm winds due to this low now forecast to move over Central Florida on Sunday. As I do not recall the last time we actually had a similar low take this projected path, not sure what to expect. Sustained surface winds 30-40 mph for a few hours as the low moves by, or just a breezy day with gusty winds in thunderstorms? What do the computer models show in this regard? A windy, squally day would be a nice change, as long as there is nothing damaging.
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
PULLING THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CWA. ONE WITH THE WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER ROUND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD
FRONT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS OVER THE CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL BE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.1 INCHES.
SO WILL ALSO ADD HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO THE ZONES FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER OFFICE IN
MIAMI FLORIDA...AND FROM THE SPC CENTER.
Yeah, but if ya got a handful of people who don't(overtly)understand the hows&whys behind the DroughtMonitor, there's probably more than a few others who aren't so openly expressing their displeasure; along with newbies and new lurkers who are also puzzled by the DroughtMonitor.
So the "rant"s at least serve to inspire relevant comments that'll be educational for those some.
Q: When will our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season be designated?
A. Late April-Early May
B. Mid-Late May
C. Early-Mid June
D. Late June-Early July
I choose B.
Looks like they are not agreeing with the model runs either.. Interesting how the "officials" are agreeing with the models yet the local weather forecasters aren't... Really tells you something. Again, I believe the EURO is right, strong low moving north of Central Florida, causing a powerful squall line to impact the Peninsula late Saturday night into Sunday morning. GFS and NAM seem to be out of place.
I'll go with the safe, C.
As do I. B seems reasonable given the warm SSTs and the still present (weak) La Nina conditions.
Thanks for flagging it up, Cotillion. It's actually quite funny to read the articles in the 'weather' category on the Telegraph. April 15 and 16 two articles on 'the worst drought since 1976' are published
"Half of Britain is now in drought as the country faces its most severe water shortage since 1976, the Environment Agency warns today.
More than 35%u2009million people are now living in drought-affected areas, with water shortages today declared across the Midlands and South West.
Parts of the country are already drier than they were in the summer of 1976, when Britain experienced its worst drought for more than 100 years."
And three days later it's the coldest May in 100 years plus flooding in April:
"The winter weather follows a wet start to April, with the threat of floods and storms to come over the next few days.
The Met Office has issued weather warnings for the South West, London, South East, Wales and the West of England due to flooding on roads and 60mph winds."
*edit* I just checked that on the Met Office website: no warnings issued! Except for heavy rain in Scotland.
I say C
B.
A. Late April-Early May
B. Mid-Late May
C. Early-Mid June
D. Late June-Early July
I say B as well.
E) February produced a horrendous Cat.5 with multiple landfalls on several major cities in its travels.
Afterwards, time-travellers came back with advanced technology that prevented the storm from growing out of its Invest stage. Which is why you don't remember it happening.
Sort of similar to how this storm may look.. I remember there being a substantial severe weather threat that day, had auditions for acting/modeling school. Just rained with some thunder/tornado watch. Low was too far south for a squall line to organize, which might be the case with this storm, according to the GFS and NAM. I still disagree at this time. The EURO remains strong.
The good news is, the GFS shows nothing significant for the next 16 days.
I guess we have a boring 2 weeks of weather coming up.
Yeah.
My main concern is that May is going to explode with tornado activity.
I think you both make valid points. "old Stuff" might get tiring for the old timers, but this blog seems to get a lot of "new people". That old stuff is relevant to them, and might keep them coming back/interested. Eventuality they might start to contribute.
So keep addressing the "rants" politely as it does serve a useful function. I came to the blog to try and understand climate change. I needed exposure to the basics. The new people might need basics also.
Little did we know it feature the largest tornado outbreak in USA history.
Hey, it looks like computer model trends have begun to back off on the significant severe but this recent trend would likely mean even more rain, if the low tracks right through the gulf across Florida then it will bring the very heavy precip with it. Severe weather would be less and rain more, which is exactly what we want to see.
Now keep in mind the NWS noted this was just from the recent computer runs, they may shift back to the severe risk but hopefully not.
Anyway, this is exactly why its not good to hype the severe issue, if this model trend continues severe will be minimal, then some of the people who were freaking out about this situation being deadly with a moderate risk look silly. Moderate risk forecasts are rare in Florida for that exact reason. A moderate risk warrants significant confidence for significant severe. When we do get significant severe in Florida usually a moderate risk or higher will not be issued simply because there usually isn't sufficient confidence for one. The SPC isn't about hype. Florida weather is just hard to predict. For those who were talking about wide spread severe and potentially deadly outbreak of severe for us this weekend, well, I hope you've learned your lesson because models have backed off of that and are now leaning more toward mainly heavy storms with an isolated severe threat. I'm not saying this to mock and made a public spectacle out of people. But I'm saying this to urge other like me who are either seeking to be a meteorologist or you are enough of an enthusiast that people listen to you about weather reports. I get very excited about these events myself but I've learned to work at seeking accuracy instead of hype. I don't even need to get into why accuracy over hype is so important, you guys should know that by now.
The unfortunate fact facing a good proportion of people today, at least what I have noticed at the Community College and University level, is a lack of context. They can look at something, doubt it, disparage it, but not understand WHY it shows what it shows. Context and understanding methodology are the main areas where people seem to be falling short. This is not meant as an insult, just an observation; context is not easy to understand and remember in every circumstance.
12Z NAM - Farther out in the GOM, broad, weak with multiple lows
Actually, there will also be solid surface low as well that is expected to move into Central Florida, so it will get quite windy. However I'm actually surprised QPF forecasts haven't increased around here yet because while the new surface low placement likely means a lower severe threat, it probably means a higher rain threat. Most likely though QPF forecasts are still on the conservative side thanks to the fact that we have been in such a consistent dry pattern and because the last few systems all produced less than the model consensus showed so I certainly understand forecasters in having still a more conservative rainfall forecast. I myself am not going bullish on the rain until I see it materialize. However, the potential certainly exists for several inches of rain. But it is just that, potential, scientifically a potential function is a good way of predicting the maximum output of anything, however it is a potential, and actually output doesn't always live up to the potential function...
Looks like Kentucky and Kansas have gotten the brunt of the severe weather so far this year
National Weather Service New Orleans la
334 PM CDT Thursday Apr 19 2012
Friday night through Sunday...
models remain in generally good agreement concerning the next
system. As the upper trough axis approaches the Louisiana/Texas
border...models agree that a closed low will form in the base of
the trough. As this happens...it will induce the development of a
surface low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. While model
placement of the surface low has been moving a bit from run to
run...the scenario itself has not changed much.
With the surface low shifting farther south...much of the heavier
rain and convection will remain over the Gulf. With that
said...have reduced the probability of thunderstorms into the
chance category with the primary Mode of precipitation being rain
showers. Have also significantly reduced the quantitative precipitation forecast forecast as
heaviest precipitation should remain offshore.
Otherwise...main impacts remain the same. The very tight pressure gradient across the area will lead to strong winds across both marine and land areas as the low develops and moves away from the area.
Despite the low moving away from the area and a slight
relaxing of the pressure gradient...will still be calling for sustained winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour with frequent higher gusts across most of the area Sunday.
This will be primarily due to the fact that skies should be clear Saturday allowing for efficient
mixing through the column which will bring strong winds aloft down to the surface.
I say B :)
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