Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Shaun Tanner, 6:50 AM GMT en Abril 15, 2012 | +36 |

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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This has the potential to be a very dangerous year despite some already calling it a bust... We may not see very many storms but if a favorable environment (lack of shear and dry air) sets up in the Gulf and Caribbean and combines with the warm SST's we could be looking at some powerful home grown storms.
Unlike last time, this looks to be a traditional El Nino!
Just another case of someone using an innocuous comment, in this cse about he drop in PV pricing, to tout their political agenda...
Homegrown...yes..pretty powerful...maybe. The setup, if it remains the same as far as sst anomalies, there would have to be R.I. which would most likely occur in the GOMEX...then once again, the key factor would depend on shear.
Good morning sir, how are you?
E1
E2
E3
Who's calling it a bust? A ittle early to sound the all clear, you think?
CFS1 will be discontinued in June. CFSv2 will be the only NCEP model for ENSO after June.
Only 0.86" at the house near the NWS. Just a few miles SW places got up to 3-5 inches. Whole night was lit up constantly, crazy.
LOL. We still have 45 days till the season starts. It will be interesting to see if this trend of the MJO hanging out across the Caribbean, Gulf, & E-Pac. I think all indicators are in place for an active year in terms of US landfalls across the Gulf region eventhough we may only have 10 to 12 storms.
Some areas have seen 6" to 8" to your south.
I think he's going by Accuweather which they over exaggerate everything on that site. It will problaby be 83 to 86 next week with lows in the 60's.
yes I know but is it June 1st? and please just answer the question
Same thing has happened a few times with various climate groups. Michael Mann being one, East Anglia being another big one. It appears that sometimes people want someone to be guilty of something so bad, they convict them in their minds before all the evidence is in, and refuse to change their mind when the evidence arrives.
In similar fashion to how some have treated Solyndra, the researchers at East Anglia have been exonerated by at least 4 different independent investigations, but that's not acceptable to some, and likely never will be.
A lot of warm water out there...and if you need hot air, just hang out in here for a while. When did the "Welcome National Pomposity Convention" banners go up? LOL
It was lightening all night last night at my place but we hardly saw any rain. That cap really prevented the heavy stuff from getting into the Houston Metro area and north. Part of southern Brazoria county did get 4"+ of rain though. Radar is exaggerating with that 6"-7" showing up on there.
He might be referring to this.... way out in the extended, it gets to near 50F. Not quite as cool as he was suggesting though:
Link
20 named and 3 CAT 5s with 0 CONUS landfalls is a bust in some folks books...it's like NASCAR in here: we all came to see the skilled drivers make left turns, right? No one came to see a fiery crash, right?
It says June,not a specific date.
Link
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
527 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-162200 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
527 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
AN EASTERLY SURGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 4
FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA...BUT STRONG STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A STRONGER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO KNOW
THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
$$
JILLSON
Actually that was bad luck for you, the storms were just lined up and training, no cap. lol
JUST ANSWER THE QUESTION
and yes just saw that then I will requote my self
I meant that as in the cap prevented the heavy stuff from forming yesterday afternoon/evening. Which then prevented us from getting widespread rainfall as anticipated days earlier. There is definitely the opposite of a cap right now. I think we will make up for it today. Luckily that front stalled out just over the city so these storms will be running up through our area all day long today. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some severe weather with a few of these storms.
They are going to have some flooding problems for sure as the day progresses.
Link
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 902 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
TORNADO WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 859 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 854 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
And the north side of town gets left out to dry.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
* AT 914 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. NUMEROUS VEHICLES
HAVE BEEN STRANDED IN HIGH WATER. DOPPLER RADAR OVER 5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE WARNED AREA.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
SOME CITIES AND TOWNS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PORTLAND...ROCKPORT...BAYSIDE...COPANO VILLAGE...GREGORY AND
INGLESIDE. .
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN KLEBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
* AT 927 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER CENTRAL
KLEBERG COUNTY...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSVILLE...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL CENTRAL KLEBERG COUNTY...
Neutal to light el niño
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