CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT en Abril 05, 2012

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Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.


Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.


Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.

Jeff Masters

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NEW BLOG
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The same spots for a whole week.
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Quoting trunkmonkey:


And most of the money is going to Muslim countries, where the end result is their going to own every one of us.


Uh... OPEC only produces 25-30% of global oil production...

Many other countries also product oil, such as the US, Mexico, UK, Norway, etc.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
no more MDT, but a 30 wind added.


MDT??
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SAL map


You can see the ITCZ starting to move north....
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no more MDT, but a 30 wind added.
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
1258. ncstorm
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1257. ncstorm
What a week this will be in the southern plains..day after day after day of severe weather and even next week

from the SPC Day 4-8

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING D4/THU
THROUGH D6/SAT. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS WILL RESULT IN RICH MOISTURE RETURN INTO
OK/KS ON D4/D5 AND THEN EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY ON D6. THIS COMBINED WITH ENEWD EXTENSION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THROUGH D6. SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS SUCH THAT
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
D4...D5...AND D6. THE STRONGEST BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON D6/SAT
WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ALSO EXPANDING SWD SOME INTO N
TX AND NEWD INTO SWRN IA.

BEYOND D6...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ANY
ADDITIONAL REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS.

..PETERS.. 04/09/2012

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have to say, a moderate risk was quite unexpected for today. However, as I mentioned last night, some very large hail will be possible. They must expect extensive coverage as well. A few tornadoes are also possible.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE
DAY IN FAR WRN OK NEAR THE OK-TX STATE-LINE. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SRN KS...NW OK AND THE
FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NW TX THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM SW KS EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE NAM AND
NAMKF INCREASE MLCAPE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WRN OK SHOW STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT
RANGE SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED LARGE
HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
SSEWD...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX.

...WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY
WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT VERY WEAK SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AND NORTHWEST
OF DEL RIO SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35
KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE SHOULD
STRUGGLE DURING THE EVENING AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED.

..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 04/09/2012

On top of that, it still appears we're going to have back to back to back tornado outbreaks starting Thursday.



This front wasnt supposed to be as potent as it was

Looks like the south texas low will lift northward....


That stationary front along withthe other two to the north will increase instability.
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Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
I want to take a post to thank the Wundermap Fire and Smoke development team. Those maps are Fantastic. I am choking from the thick smoke here in north central Florida. And with these maps, I can see which fire my smoke is coming from AND where to go to get out of it when it gets too bad.
THANK YOU!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

According to this image, it has leveled off some and will probably be around -0.2/-0.3 %uFFFDC still.

Anyways, I'm off to the horrible kid jail otherwise known as high school.



LOL (kid jail). Good Luck and have a great day. The girls are waiting for ya.
Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Some places are in it the highest severe weather risk all 3 days. Ouch.

I wonder how this will all pan out.
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting StormTracker2K:
We'll very likely be in the .00 to .02C range once the enso update comes out today as the SOI Index continues to crash. Basically the official end to La-Nina today!


According to this image, it has leveled off some and will probably be around -0.2/-0.3 %uFFFDC still.

Anyways, I'm off to the horrible kid jail otherwise known as high school.

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We'll very likely be in the .00 to +.02C range once the enso update comes out today as the SOI Index continues to crash. Basically the official end to La-Nina today!

Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting trunkmonkey:


looks like the Thursday and Saturday prediction has changed, lets hope and pray for a non tornado day today, in the high risk category

I wish, but it looks like there will be tornado potential everyday starting on Thursday, and it looks like the "main event" will occur on Saturday as the strongest bulk shear associated with this upcoming multi-day Severe Weather event ejects into the severe threat area.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Severe Weather isn't the only thing to be active this week...



Yeah the fire threat across the mid Atlantic & Southwest US looks extreme this week. even worse than in FL which is hard to imagine as it can't get any drier here. We had .74 last Friday and you can't even tell it rained due to temps in the 80's with low humidity drying everything out fast.
Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Severe Weather isn't the only thing to be active this week...



looks like the Thursday and Saturday prediction has changed, lets hope and pray for a non tornado day today, in the high risk category
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Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:


Its getting ridiculous here in England £1.48 a Litre thats $8.88 per us gallon crazy, When i passed my driving test 8 years ago it was 0.75p a litre.


And most of the money is going to Muslim countries, where the end result is their going to own every one of us.
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Severe Weather isn't the only thing to be active this week...

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I have to say, a moderate risk was quite unexpected for today. However, as I mentioned last night, some very large hail will be possible. They must expect extensive coverage as well. A few tornadoes are also possible.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE
DAY IN FAR WRN OK NEAR THE OK-TX STATE-LINE. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SRN KS...NW OK AND THE
FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NW TX THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM SW KS EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE NAM AND
NAMKF INCREASE MLCAPE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WRN OK SHOW STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT
RANGE SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED LARGE
HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
SSEWD...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX.

...WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY
WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT VERY WEAK SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AND NORTHWEST
OF DEL RIO SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35
KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE SHOULD
STRUGGLE DURING THE EVENING AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED.

..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 04/09/2012

On top of that, it still appears we're going to have back to back to back tornado outbreaks starting Thursday.

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Quoting LargoFl:
On a global warming topic, IF gasoline goes to $6.oo a gallon as donald trump and others are predicting, most U.S workers would tend to stop driving to work IF that is possible, I knoq some work many many miles from home BUT, if workers stopped driving, would the impact of the dirty air pollution now NOT being produced and sent into the atmosphere, delay or even Lessen...global warming? assuming in Other countries the impact of prices would sky rocket as well..i KNOW..6.00 a gallon may already be in some parts of europe..whew...


Its getting ridiculous here in England £1.48 a Litre thats $8.88 per us gallon crazy, When i passed my driving test 8 years ago it was 0.75p a litre.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Things will be warming up again--natch--over most of the US again over the next two weeks, according to the CPC:

Hot

Hot


Yep not good! I see 90's are back in the forecast for FL either by Sunday or for sure most of next week here in C FL. April is trending one of the warmest on record here in Orlando I know it's early but the temps are forecast to be above normal everyday except maybe Thursday.
Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
I think- just a hunch, but I think the national weather service might be a little concerned about the potential for fire weather in the northeast/mid atlantic. . .
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Quoting txjac:


Go Ron Paul


Yeah! And take BO with you...
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I just got dual monitors today and I don't think I'll ever go back to 1. Anybody else have a dual /tri setup?




I have three on mine. It's an "Eyefinity" setup.
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Quoting LargoFl:
good morning..dry as a bone here and soon the whole state will be red flagged for fire danger etc......URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
440 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LEE AND POLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...

.FOUR HOURS OR MORE OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

FLZ052-065-092300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0016.120409T1600Z-120409T2300Z/
POLK-LEE-
440 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR POLK AND LEE COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...POLK...LEE.

* WIND...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING WEST BY AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY...25 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

&&

$$


JOHNSON

I know how you feel... I can't remember a spring dry stretch as long as this... This is supposed to be our rainiest time of the year and we've had nothing.
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This looks promising...

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1234. MahFL
Good morning all.
On the newsfront, it gets ridiculous when Yahoo reports a punch up at a wedding by a drunken women, that kind of thing happens at weddings, and I've seen it first hand too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1233. LargoFl
good morning..dry as a bone here and soon the whole state will be red flagged for fire danger etc......URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
440 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LEE AND POLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...

.FOUR HOURS OR MORE OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

FLZ052-065-092300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0016.120409T1600Z-120409T2300Z/
POLK-LEE-
440 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR POLK AND LEE COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...POLK...LEE.

* WIND...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING WEST BY AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY...25 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

&&

$$


JOHNSON
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
Things will be warming up again--natch--over most of the US again over the next two weeks, according to the CPC:

Hot

Hot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Rather tranquil for the next week or so. The GFS is portraying a rather significant front in the 7-10 day period. A system like that would be one to watch out for leaving behind some energy in the Gulf.



Tranquil???? um, i dunno about that.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE
DAY IN FAR WRN OK NEAR THE OK-TX STATE-LINE. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SRN KS...NW OK AND THE
FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NW TX THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM SW KS EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE NAM AND
NAMKF INCREASE MLCAPE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WRN OK SHOW STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT
RANGE SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED LARGE
HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
SSEWD...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX.

...WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY
WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT VERY WEAK SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AND NORTHWEST
OF DEL RIO SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35
KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE SHOULD
STRUGGLE DURING THE EVENING AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED.

..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 04/09/2012

Hazard
Mon (04/09)Moderate
Tue (04/10) Slight
Wed (04/11) Slight
Thu (04/12) Severe
Fri (04/13) No Area
Sat (04/14) Severe
Sun (04/15) No Area
Mon (04/16) No Area
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1229. Skyepony (Mod)
As for season numbers I want to lean higher than CRU. Over all ACE numbers globally have been below average with this multi year La Nina episode. So far this year, S Hem is behind. Also of interest the WPAC Ace is well behind so far for the year with only 4.12 of the normal 7. The last few years the WPAC has been depressed & the N Atlantic has had above normal Ace. WPAC doesn't look to have wolk up yet. Very possible EPAC could steal the show with the shifting ENSO but ATL could hang on to it. Looking back to '95 odds are this year that ACE would be atleast average for NATL (104). & we also see the EPAC instability beginning to fall off as the Atlantic instability begins to show sign of recovery after being depressed much of last year.

Even if we see El Nino by heart of season the atmospheric delay should delay the effects til the end of season. I half expect a warm neutral by season peak. La Nina hasn't exactly gone down in flames.

True~ ace doesn't give a number. Last year didn't have raging ace (~130) but the spin up factor was favorable so there was alot of short lived storms. Lookin at the GOM & off the east coast lately that factor is in play still..maybe a little gamely even.

I'm gonna say atleast 15 total, maybe 4 majors.


Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I just got dual monitors today and I don't think I'll ever go back to 1. Anybody else have a dual /tri setup?


I've had it set up dual during a few extremely active times. It's a real treat.
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Mark Cuban- The most patriotic thing an American can do is be filthy, filthy rich.

LOL
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Rather tranquil for the next week or so. The GFS is portraying a rather significant front in the 7-10 day period. A system like that would be one to watch out for leaving behind some energy in the Gulf.



Alrighty, looks like fun for me then. I do hate it when those storms roll in during the morning though, waking up to a tornado warning in a city without sirens isn't much fun.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Twill be interesting to see what April holds severe wx wise. I find it hard to believe it'll be as busy as last year. However, it will be very interesting to see if we get more activity in FL as opposed to points north.



Rather tranquil for the next week or so. The GFS is portraying a rather significant front in the 7-10 day period. A system like that would be one to watch out for leaving behind some energy in the Gulf.

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KOTG, some of the Canadian stuff is actually not bad...
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I gotta tell u... some of what passes for news in the US [and, to be honest, in the UK and Caribbean as well] comes across a lot more as some kind of weird reality entertainment instead. The most obvious examples for me are hurricane related news reports, which can sometimes reach the heights of the ridiculous.
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1222. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting txjac:


Like AJE myself. I go all over the place for news as sometimes I can find reports in the international newsites I cant find here in the US
i like AJE,REUTERS,BBC and my local news CITYTV and SUN
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
1221. geepy86
Quoting txjac:


Go Ron Paul

lol
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1220. txjac
Quoting WxGeekVA:



I'm a libertarian as well... I don't even really watch the news that much lol


Go Ron Paul
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
As a libertarian I watch Russia Today for the most unbiased news. Wait why do I even have to mention my theology?



I'm a libertarian as well... I don't even really watch the news that much lol
Member Since: Septiembre 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Did note however our little severe weather outbreak that wasn't late week. Could've been Nino knocking on the door.
Twill be interesting to see what April holds severe wx wise. I find it hard to believe it'll be as busy as last year. However, it will be very interesting to see if we get more activity in FL as opposed to points north.
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1217. txjac
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i like AJE myself Al Jazeera


Like AJE myself. I go all over the place for news as sometimes I can find reports in the international newsites I cant find here in the US
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i like AJE myself Al Jazeera
I got a brother follows AJE pretty steady. He thinks CNN is punk.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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