Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns
Earth has seen some highly unusual weather patterns over the past three years, and three new studies published this year point to Arctic sea loss as a potential important driver of some of these strange weather patterns. The record loss of sea ice the Arctic in recent years may be increasing winter cold surges and snowfall in Europe and North America, says a study by a research team led by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists Jiping Liu and Judith Curry. The paper, titled "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, in a press release. "The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents."
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice in September 2007 reached its lowest extent on record, approximately 40% lower than when satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice loss in 2011 was virtually tied with the ice loss in 2007, despite weather conditions that were not as unusual in the Arctic. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.
Figure 2. The extent of Arctic sea ice loss in the summer July - August - September period in 2007 was about 1.4 million square miles (3.6 million square kilometers) greater than in 1980, according to the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. For comparison, the lost ice coverage (orange colors) was equal to an area about 44% of the size of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe.
Summertime Arctic sea ice loss: 40% since 1980
The Arctic has seen a stunning amount of sea ice loss in recent years, due to melting and unfavorable winds that have pushed large amounts of ice out of the region. Forty percent of the sea ice was missing in September 2007, compared to September of 1980. This is an area equivalent to about 44% of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe. Such a large area of open water is bound to cause significant impacts on weather patterns, due to the huge amount of heat and moisture that escapes from the exposed ocean into the atmosphere over a multi-month period following the summer melt. The Georgia Tech study found that Arctic sea ice loss had caused a 20 - 60% weakening of the west-to-east belt of winds circling the pole in recent years, producing broader meanders in the jet stream that allowed it to get "stuck" in place 20 - 60% more often. When the jet stream gets stuck in place for a long period of time, we say a "blocking pattern" has set up. Since the jet stream marks the boundary between cold, Arctic air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south, areas on both sides of the jet are subjected to extended periods of unusually warm or cold weather during a blocking episode. Such a blocking pattern began on January 26, 2012 and lasted until February 11, bringing and exceptionally cold and snowy conditions to much of Europe, which lay on the cold side of an elongated loop of the jet stream that got stuck in place. Conversely, most of North America and northern Siberia saw unusually warm temperatures during this period, since they were on the warm side of the jet stream. Lead author Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, added, "We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States." The paper concludes: "if Arctic sea ice continues as anticipated by climate modeling results, we speculate that episodes of the aforementioned circulation change will become more frequent, along with more persistent snowstorms over northern continents during winter."
Figure 3. Waiting for the warm-up after a rare snowfall in Italy during the February, 2012 European cold blast. Image credit: wunderphotographer cathykiro.
Two other studies link Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes
"The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation...it's how can it not?" That was the take-home message from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk "Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-latitudes, presented at December's American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. Dr. Francis presented new research that has just been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, which shows that Arctic sea ice loss may significantly affect the upper-level atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing its tendency to make contorted high-amplitude loops. High-amplitude loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increases the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to extreme weather due to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions. Dr. Francis describes her work in a March 5, 2012 post on the Yale environment360 web site.
"Even if the current weather situation may seem to speak against it, the probability of cold winters with much snow in Central Europe rises when the Arctic is covered by less sea ice in summer." That was the opening sentence of a January 26, 2012 press release by a group of European scientists, led by Ralf Jaiser of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. The words proved prescient, because that day marked the beginning of a brutal two-week cold air outbreak over Central and Eastern Europe that killed 823 people and did over $660 million in damage, according to preliminary estimates by insurance broker Aon Benfield. Dr. Jaiser's team, using modeling studies, showed that Arctic sea ice loss weakens upper-level winds over the Arctic in winter, allowing an increased chance of cold air surges over Europe.
Figure 4. Digging out in Maryland after "Snowmageddon" on February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.
Why was the winter of 2011 - 2012 so warm in the U.S.?
The winter of 2011 - 2012 in North America was unusually warm--the fourth warmest on record. The cold air spilling out of the Arctic during the winter was confined to Europe, unlike that previous two winters, which were unusually cold and snowy in the Eastern U.S. Obviously, loss of Arctic sea ice is not having the same impact each winter; such factors as El Niño/La Niña, the phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and the amount of snow cover in Siberia also have strong influences on the winter weather pattern that sets up. Cold air is less likely to spill out of the Arctic during a solar maximum, as we are now headed towards, so this factor may tend to reduce the odds of getting big cold blasts in the U.S. during the coming two winters. However, cold air may be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see more winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt and affect global atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.
References
Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012.
Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation, Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595
Liu et al. (2012), "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences, Published online before print February 27, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Great post! Like I said eventhough I don't agree with everything Obama has during his first term he is still the better guy for job as the republicans that are running are not the brightest.
That's not true.
I've never met ANYONE who wanted to be on government assistance programs if they had a choice.
The reason there are so many government assistance programs is because people can't find a job that actually pays a decent living, in many cases even people with bachelors and associates degrees cannot get a job at all right now.
Even people graduating from technical schools right now have about an 18% unemployment rate, even in the middle of what was a tech boom.
Why?
Because most of the tech problems have already been solved. Automated order/payment systems and forums and databases, and even now production and warehouses, and other such things are already mostly optimized, and so there is simply no job for somebody to program any of it.
Besides, in some cases you get better training in a 4 week free, on the job training program than you got at the tech school anyway.
So the people went to school like a "good citizen" and end up 50k in the hole in loans, and still can't get a job. Not to mention, the turnover rate in the industry is so high that you only typically keep a job for a year or two before they fire you, or before you've worked yourself out of a job for some other reason anyway.
that's why I didn't go to tech school several years back, and it turned out to be, I think, the right decision.
Knew a girl a few years back that had a 4 year college degree in computer science, and she ended up teaching an introduction to computers class for a few thousand dollars a year income. She made more money bar tending a day or two on the side than she did at a "skilled" teaching position. And she was on government assistance too.
The funny thing is, her college curriculum at SLU must have been ten times easier than mine, because I knew just from conversation with her that there was no way in hell she could have passed the math and sciences requirements for the CS curriculum at LSU.
Anyway, quite wrong man.
People don't want to be there, they're just stuck there, because that's the world we live in.
I was curious, I have a Bachelor's in GIS and noticed that the NWS is starting to implement that into their formats. I was hoping they may be hiring GIS analysts to help them incorporate that, but they may just do that in house.
Maybe but it's worth a try. I would ask about that as you never know they may need someone with your skills.
That's exactly what I'm wondering.
Wow, I cannot tell if you are taking a swipe at homeschooling or religion. Either way, you are pretty sanctimonious about both.
When I do searches on jobs at any NWS, I can't dig up any archives of job postings under the GIS category.
You are right that the job market is tough. You are wrong about everything else. You whole tone speaks volumes about who is to blame. Let me give you a clue; Citizens are to blame.
Quoting SPLbeater:
RTS...idk why im responding, but...
I aint in a public school because of the trash they are teaching kids, and how some teachers arent doing ANYTHING about students behavior. i dont want to hear the cursing and and the inappropriate talk in public school.
um...
--Yesterday was the 40th consecutive day in which record daily highs have outnumbered record daily lows across the U.S. It was also the 88th of 2012's 94 elapsed days that's been true, and the 109th of the last 115.
--13 of 2012's 14 weeks--92.9%--have seen more high records than low records across the U.S.
--For 2012 to-date, record highs have outnumbered record lows by a somewhat lopsided 23,094 to 1,736, or 13.3 to 1. That's 21,358 more high records than low records this year, an overage that wasn't reached last year until the second week of August.
--Since January 1 of 2011, record highs have outnumbered record lows by 79,416 to 27,094.
Link
I go to a catholic school for that reason
Go tO the office and ask for a job haha
the two often go hand in hand anyway, which clearly in SPLBeater's case that appears to be true.
I don't have a problem with God or "religion" as people call it in theory.
The problem is church is quite frankly fake.
I don't have a problem with God, but the fact is, when you really examine the situation, the modern interpretation and application of conservative Christianity, both Catholic and protestant, is one of the leading drivers of social bondage and poverty in this nation.
The Bible is at best a corrupted, mis-interpreted, and poorly maintained text.
Now if I take John 1,1 seriously, in that God is "Logos", the rational principle that governs the Universe...then when I look around and find that the majority of scientific knowledge undermines in at least some way the first and most important book of the Bible, being Genesis, then I have a serious problem.
One book of the Bible declares that God is the rational principle that governs the universe, while another book declares that God made the Earth, the Sun, and the universe in a way and time period which as yet, cannot be substantiated by much of any evidence whatsoever, and in deed is in fact directly contradicted by almost every empirical fact ever discovered, then there is a problem, obviously.
Like I told SPL one of the first times I came back to this site. We don't even have to deal with millions or billions of years. We can destroy and almost totally refute every single statement in Genesis and much of the entire old Testament genealogy with just one or two paleolithic archeological dig sites, because they are at least two or three times older than the oldest possible Biblically self-consistent date that can be calculated for Adam and Eve's supposed existence.
And the only way to even attempt to reconcile that problem to reality is to then say it was a metaphor, but that doesn't actually work either, since both Jesus and John in the New Testament, as well as even their OPPONENTS all taught that these events (in Genesis) were literal events that actually happened in history.
So both the teachings of Pharisees and other Hebrew sects, and the teachings of Jesus, at least as recorded in our modern Bible, are historically inaccurate.
I'm not being sanctimonious at all.
In fact, I'm being just the opposite.
I'm absolutely sick and tired of flat out lies from the allegedly Christian church, which absolutely does not have what they claim to have.
about 3-4 yrs of age...
there is no place for these comments being quoted. please ignore and do not quote trolls.
All Current NOAA Job openings:
USAJOBS
You truly are terrible at this stuff.
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/65421223? searchTerm=greenland%20vikings&searchLimits=
"At precisely two minutes and twenty-six seconds after midnight March 30, 2012 there was an incredibly powerful bolt of lightning in the vicinity of Woodward, Oklahoma that spawned these red sprites," says Ashcraft. "I could see them from two states away!"
From spaceweather.com
I used to be like you in a lot of ways, well I went to public school, and thank God for that. You're going to regret what's being done to you 10 years or so from now when you're old enough to really understand.
I was raised a lot like you, from what I've seen, and I'm warning you, 10, 15 years from now, you'll finally wake up when you realized you fell off a cliff somewhere and have nothing that works in the real world.
What you get in your so-called christian home school and your so-called christian church isn't real kid. I wish I could tell you otherwise, but it's nothing more than a ponzi scheme, and an emotional and social bondage, even at the BEST of them.
The government should ban home schooling, because public school is a bout the only chance a lot of kids get to see just how stupid and insane their radical conservative parents really are.
I know you think you're parents know everything, because who else is a kid or a young teen going to trust, but they don't.
Can we stay on topic with the weather please? There is no need for hatred or tension here on a weather blog. We all have 1 thing in common, and that is a love for weather. Please refrain from comments not weather related. Now I remember why I left WU before. It's sad that people can't grow up and behave respectably. I bet that you wouldn't say that to someone's face, would you RTS.
Oh, and by the way, RTS, you misspelled your. Maybe public schooling didn't help you after all. :D
I know you think you're parents know everything, because who else is a kid or a young teen going to trust, but they don't.
But thanks for sharing.
Not everyone can afford that, maybe the gov't should pay for that too?
From Military.com
"The passage of the Health Care Reform Act raised the issue of military families and survivors of veterans seeing health care costs rise or worse. Based on preliminary reading of the final act it appears these fears were unfounded."
http://www.military.com/benefits/content/tricare/ understanding-the-affects-of-health-care-reform-on -tricare.html
--
Your connection between health insurance and bank bailouts does not connect....
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1104 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
TXC143-221-363-367-031630-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-120403T1630Z/
ERATH TX-HOOD TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
1104 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN PARKER...EASTERN PALO PINTO...NORTHWESTERN HOOD AND
NORTH CENTRAL ERATH COUNTIES...
AT 1104 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LIPAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
Correct.
And has someone pointed out that building in flood plains is a local government decision while bailing out those people who get flooded gets kicked back to the federal government?
That'll permanently part your hair if you get hit.
In what way? Can you elaborate?
How is a person to blame when they went to college and did everything that was allegedly expected of them, and still can't get a real job?
How is anyone to blame when they go to one college, which has a curriculum that nobody actually passes, while another college gives the same degree for what amounts to a high school education?
If I knew SLU gave the same degree for essentially all the classes I tested out of, then why the hell did I bother with LSU and multiple semesters of classes that only a handful of people actually managed to pass?
How was that my fault?
And how was it her fault in her situation?
Please elaborate and enlighten everyone.
why are you required to take 5 to 10 math and science courses that you will never use again in your life just to get a bachelors degree, that almost every half-decent job in existence now requires, even though nothing you had to do to get the degree is relevant to the job?
I have a cousin who barely graduated high school with about a 1-point something GPA, didn't go to college, and dropped out of tech school, and he knows more about computers than anyone else I ever met in my life, including the useless professors and staff at LSU.
He now makes more money than anyone else I know in the extended family, including RNs, with one exception being my brother-in-law who is practically filthy rich selling auto parts...with nothing but a high school diploma, hell, he's making about as much money as state senators now, maybe more...
I could do that auto parts job easy. There's nothing to it really, and would be piss easy compared to any job I've ever had, and it's a simple 9 to 5 day job to boot! He doesn't even upsale stuff!
How is that my fault either? He happened to be in the right place at the right time, and have a certain family connection that helped him get the position, but anybody that can read and write could do that job.
Time and chance guy.
I can't fault them for their good fortune, but I hope you see the point.
No skill or fault involved.
My aptitude tests are probably close to as high as the two of them combined, and I can't seem to get a position like that to save my life. Half the time can't even get the damn interview, never mind get hired.
Georgia Weather History for April 3rd
In 1974, the super tornado outbreak occurred. During this 24 hour outbreak, 148 tornadoes occurred across most of the Midwest and Southeast. In Georgia, there were nine tornadoes.
I think there are meteorologists with GIS experience that work at many different offices. We also have several of them at our regional headquarters. I do not know of a centralized office with many GIS-centered personnel.
I'm not sure it has been entirely figured out yet, but the important thing to remember is that it has had virtually no impact whatsoever on the summer minimums. That is why I hypothesize that we will see a rate of melt near the average of the last half-decade, which would again put it near the record melt rate of the entire satellite record.
You see, with all of the great minds in the world and the boat load of scientific knowledge you cannot disprove that God made heaven and earth. The good news for you is that Christians, and basically every other religion in the world, cannot prove it. The only difference between the two is who has faith in what.
It would be nice for some specialists like that at our regional offices, but I think they have meteorology or physical science degrees as the base requirement, and then GIS as a bonus skill.
GIS has probably been a lacking skill in the met field for some time, at least in my opinion. Most of the standard met software is far behind in GIS capabilities.
Should he show any common sense, scientific knowledge and a desire to be environmentally sound, then yes. He is certainly a fake Republican, but only by what defines today's Republican.
Real America. Real Republicans. Real this. Real that. Hard to fit under that big tent when you don't match the cookie-cutter. Maybe it is Mr. Douglas's prerogative to decide what he is?
And did you seriously just link to a site that used Joe Bastardi as the rebuttal argument to Paul Douglas?
Are you serious? Even if your graph was correct, your argument is extremely out of place.
You are presenting an argument about temperature trends over the last 4500 years (which looks very unprofessional) against daily temperature records experienced in the U.S. only over the past year.
Okay...
As to that ridiculous chart you've posted yet again: do you think you could maybe reproduce a graphic from an actual science site, not one from that pair of wingnuts over at LRW who appear to have failed both statistics and climatology (and probably Excel Charts 101, as well)?
I tried this example out recently when confronted by the argument of "there is a larger amount of Ice this year, than we have seen for some time, 'so where's the warming'?"
If you have an aerial, or better a satellite photo of a country and it is covered in snow it basically all looks white, no matter if the snow is a few inches thick or a few feet thick!
This is what we are confronted with at the moment, the ice is visible but very soon can become invisible/water again. Its thickness is the vital statistic, not its extent?
If the sea ice is an inch thick, or 3 foot thick it still shows up as ice on the photos but one is semi permanent and the other is transient.
There's gonna be some bans handed out tonight! LOL, maybe not. Anyways guys,
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
Another interesting article that showed up in my feed this morning.
You don't really understand my position here, but honestly it'd take like a 3000 page autobiography to really do it justice, I guess.
I still believe in God, because I still hold the position that nature is just too perfect in many regards to have been any sort of accident or to have not been designed, and I still believe many principles in the Bible, but there's no way to believe in infallibility or inspiration, that's for darn sure.
Personal struggle with this sort of thing is always a lot more complicated than people seem to be able to express or understand on the surface.
The unemployment rate for those with a college degree is 3.9%. It could go lower but it has certainly been higher.
It is your fault because you made the choice. No one forced you into LSU. You went for a reason and are now bitter because it appears you made a bad choice.
Sounds like you are jelly. They are successful because the found something they could do good at, and probably enjoy, and they worked to be successful. That has nothing to do with you. It is not your fault they are successful nor is it thier fault you are not.
This one sentance speaks volumes about you and your attitude. You have blamed everyone but yourself. I suggest you start taking responsibility for yourself and quit looking around for someone or something to blame.
You need to find something you enjoy, find something you are good at and go be the best at it you can be. Quit relying on a degree or the right place at the right time attitude and go make something of yourself.
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