Great Lakes ice cover down 71% since 1973

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:08 PM GMT en Marzo 30, 2012

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Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, says a new study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice. The increase in temperature of the lakes could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. They noted a pronounced 4-year and 8-year oscillation in ice coverage, which could be caused by the El Niño/La Niña and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively.

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Figure 1. A tale of two winters: Lake Superior was choked with ice at the end of the winter of 2008 - 2009 (top), but was virtually ice-free at the end of the winter of 2011 - 2012 (bottom.) Image credit: NASA.

The consequences of Great Lakes ice loss
Ice coverage on the Great Lakes was just 5% this past winter, the second lowest on record, behind 2002. The lack of Great Lakes ice this winter probably added a few degrees of warmth to the unprecedented "Summer in March" conditions observed in Michigan last week--an event the National Weather Service in Detroit called "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago." We can anticipate that areas surrounding the Great Lakes will see an increased incidence of warm spring weather due to decreased ice cover on the lakes.

The loss of Great Lakes ice has allowed much more water to evaporate in winter, resulting in heavier lake effect snow near the shore, and lower lake levels. Lower water levels have had a significant impact on the Great Lakes economy. Over 200 million tons of cargo are shipped every year through the Great Lakes. Since 1998, when water levels took a severe drop, commercial ships were forced to light-load their vessels. For every inch of clearance that these oceangoing vessels lost because of low water levels, $11,000 - $22,000 in profits were lost per day. Hydropower plants have also been affected by low water levels; several New York and Michigan plants were run at reduced capacity, forcing them to buy higher priced energy from other sources, and passing on the higher costs to consumers. The large loss of ice is also likely to accelerate shoreline erosion because of the increase in open water, and promote more algal blooms. It is uncertain if the Great Lake water levels will continue to fall as the climate warms, since the region is expected to see an increase in precipitation over the coming decades. In Michigan, annual precipitation increased by about 14% between 1895 - 2011, according to the National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. Great Lakes ice coverage for the period December 4 - March 5, from the winter of 1980 - 1981 through 2011 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 had the second lowest ice coverage on record, just 5%. Only 2001 - 2002 (4.5%) had lower ice cover. The median ice coverage between 1980 - 2011 was about 19%. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Water levels on Lake Superior between 1860 and February 2012. Since the late 1990s, water levels have seen a steep decline, due to the loss of ice cover allowing more evaporation. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back by Monday at the latest with a new post, and may post some weather humor on Sunday (April Fools Day), as well.

Jeff Masters

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1031. Patrap
The most visible change in the Arctic region in recent years has been the rapid decline of the perennial ice cover. The perennial ice is the portion of the sea ice floating on the surface of the ocean that survives the summer. This ice that spans multiple years represents the thickest component of the sea ice cover.
This visualization shows the perennial Arctic sea ice from 1980 to 2012. The grey disk at the North Pole indicates the region where no satellite data is collected.



Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
1030. hydrus
Quoting Jedkins01:


Bro I didn't have a girl friend till I was 15 and haven't had one since 17, don't worry about girls, focus on school and building skills/hobbies.

If you want to seek a science career, specifically weather, prepare to give up a lot for it.

Not trying to scare ya but I'm 21 and I'm not even worrying about girls. That's where the term bachelor's degree came from :)

lol.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Does anybody here think it is a bad idea trying to re-connect wit my ex girlfriend and chat awhile? I mean, not get anything started again but just to see wats up. aint heard a word for about 2 months now...


Bro I didn't have a girl friend till I was 15 and haven't had one since 17, don't worry about girls, focus on school and building skills/hobbies.

If you want to seek a science career, specifically weather, prepare to give up a lot for it.

Not trying to scare ya but I'm 21 and I'm not even worrying about girls because I'm busy with school/work. That's where the term bachelor's degree came from :)

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No "bro", the sun isn't expected to enter its giant red phase for another 5 billion years, at which time it would begin to affect the Earth. Life should be sustainable up to that point.


i read somewhere that, yes, the earth may only be able to sustain life for another billion or so years. even before the sun goes red giant its heat output will increase dramatically before so.

http://www.pnas.org/content/106/24/9576
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sci/tech/specials/wash ington_2000/649913.stm
http://www.gps.caltech.edu/~kfl/paper/Li_PNAS2009 .pdf

during the last epoch the suns output was only 70% of what it is today. there is no reason to think it wont continue to heat up just because humans are here.

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/177/4043/52.abs tract?ck=nck
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1026. hydrus
Quoting weatherh98:


No bro, the suns light increases by 10% every billion years at that rate the earths willbegin to die in 500 million years
No..But I would bet something catastrophic happens in the next 500 million years. Most likely asteroid impacts or some other type of natural disasters.
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1025. Patrap
Obama Administration To Establish Strong Carbon Pollution Limits For New Power Plants
By Brad Johnson on Mar 26, 2012 at 10:14 pm


In one of the most significant reversals of Bush-era policy, the Obama administration plans tomorrow to issue greenhouse pollution limits for new power plants, a major step in the fight against global warming. The new rule — which will go into effect in 2013 — confirms the end of the era of dirty coal-fired power plants:
The proposed rule — years in the making and approved by the White House after months of review — will require any new power plant to emit no more than 1,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt of electricity produced. The average U.S. natural gas plant, which emits between 800 and 850 pounds of CO2 per megawatt, meets that standard; coal plants emit an average of 1,768 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt.
Since the late 1990s, “natural gas has been the fuel of choice for the majority of new generating units,” and in the 2000s, wind power generation also grew significantly. With the high cost of its toxic pollution from mine to plant, coal has been losing out to cleaner sources of fuel in the electric utility sector. Although few new coal plants have been built in the last twenty years, aging plants — some built in the 1930s — still produce about 40 percent of U.S. electricity, and about 80 percent of carbon pollution from the power sector.
In March 2001, newly elected President George W. Bush reversed a campaign pledge to limit greenhouse pollution from power plants, the source of 40 percent of United States global warming pollution. In 2008, Bush White House officials refused to open an email sent by its own Environmental Protection Agency which called for action against man-made climate change.
“This is the third major executive action launched by the Obama administration to reduce carbon pollution,” writes Center for American Progress senior fellow Daniel Weiss. “With growing evidence that the serious impacts of climate change are already here, President Obama deserves credit for this new standard. We must urgently adopt and implement these new pollution reduction standards for power plants.”
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
1024. Patrap
Uploaded by JeffId1 on Jan 17, 2012

Satellite sea ice for Arctic and Antarctic. The pixel resolution is 25km and the satellite ice data comes from the NSIDC Sea Ice Concentrations as collected from the Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I Passive Microwave systems. The compilation represents almost 3 GB of gridded data.


Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
1023. hydrus
Quoting bappit:

I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.

The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link



I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:

"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."

Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.
.............Good post..:)
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Does anybody here think it is a bad idea trying to re-connect wit my ex girlfriend and chat awhile? I mean, not get anything started again but just to see wats up. aint heard a word for about 2 months now...
Your 13 right?.Focus more on your school work than on girls.Trust me that will get you further in life.Try dating when your more mature.Like around 17 or early 20's.
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Indianapolis set an outright monthly warm temperature record for the first time since records have been kept at the airport. The last outright monthly record was set way back in 1936, when temperatures were taken in the center city probably on the top of a building as most of those old records were. This threadex crap is a big reason why people don't believe in global warming. The local weathercasters trot out temperature records that aren't at all representative of the current observation sites that they're comparing them to.
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1018. aerojad
Quoting Xyrus2000:


George Carlin was a smart guy. He saw things for what they were, and instead of wallowing in the tragedy of it all, he turned it into comedy. If we're all doomed anyway, why not go out laughing? :)

We'll eventually see whether or not the human experiment pans out. If we end up nothing more than dry bones and ruins, well, I guess we'll have our answer as to why we haven't seen a lot of intelligent life out there. :P


Drake Equation

Or, if you prefer, Carl Sagan on the Drake Equation: Link
Member Since: Junio 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
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1016. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
12:00 PM FST April 1 2012
======================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR FIJI

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI


At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (999 hPa) located at 15.7S 166.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved and convection has increased in the past 24 hours. Tropical depression 19 lies under an upper diffluent region in a low to moderate sheared environment. Tropical depression 19 is moving into an area of decreasing shear. The system is being steered southeastward by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap yielding T2.0. Final Dvorak based on DT, MET, and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
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Quoting weatherh98:


No bro, the suns light increases by 10% every billion years at that rate the earths willbegin to die in 500 million years

No "bro", the sun isn't expected to enter its giant red phase for another 5 billion years, at which time it would begin to affect the Earth. Life should be sustainable up to that point.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


*5 billion.


No bro, the suns light increases by 10% every billion years at that rate the earths willbegin to die in 500 million years
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoa!



Quoting nigel20:

2011 was Way ahead of every year over the last decade


Anyone looking at Patrick Marsh's graphics on the presentation linked from the SPC NSWW at 998., be sure you look at the whole thing - not just how many were written in a year.
:)

Part of the warning issue here is Tornado Emergency is not used judiciously or applied systematically according to NWS directive shown early in the graphics.

For instance did all the "tornado emergency" warned cells from 2000-2011 poof at the Alabama/Georgia border? Notice the one that says "...TORNADO EMERGENCY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THE METRO..." lol.

24 tornado emergencies issued 2000-2010 resulted in No Tornado. No verification stats and success failure rates available there for 2011, but for the eleven previous years, check out the verifications and the decline in success as the EF ratings go up... And already the public feels overwarned... So, should "tornado emergency" even be in use?

OK. I'll shut up now.
:)
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Quoting weatherh98:
The earth will only be inhabitable for the next 500 million years anyway, the sun will become to bright and it will get to hot and we will die, it won't matter I get the feeling we will be long gone or extinct.


*5 billion.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Do you think that 2004 is a good analog year for what your thinking? (though I am not suggesting that Florida will get a lot of storms like in 2004). That was ENSO neutral and switched to El Nino at the end.

Yes and no. Yes in regards to the fact that I believe Florida will get hit by multiple tropical cyclones during the season. No in regards to the fact that 2004 featured a lot of Cape Verde/Caribbean activity, something I highly doubt we will see this year.
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The earth will only be inhabitable for the next 500 million years anyway, the sun will become to bright and it will get to hot and we will die, it won't matter I get the feeling we will be long gone or extinct.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks for the interesting post, but I do disagree on two occasions. Current Sea Surface Temperatures are near to below normal across the Eastern Atlantic, especially compared to 2010 and last year. The NAO is also positive, and will probably continue that way, which means a stronger subtropical ridge. What this can do is ultimately strengthen the TUTT, allowing for strong wind shear across the Caribbean. The only favorable place I see for storm development is off the East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico. That is not to say we will not get one or two across the Caribbean/East Atlantic, but it does not seem likely. With warm Neutral to weak El Ni�o conditions to come back as well, I see an average to slightly above average hurricane season. Generally 14-7-4.

I do agree we'll see early tropical formation as well.


Do you think that 2004 is a good analog year for what your thinking? (though I am not suggesting that Florida will get a lot of storms like in 2004). That was ENSO neutral and switched to El Nino at the end.
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Here in Maitland, near Orlando, it rained heavily a couple times really briefly, but has mostly been on the light side. It also got a bit gusty as what was left of that cell down near Animal Kingdom came through. I will take whatever we can get, as I have not seen any promising rainfall outlooks for the upcoming summer.


No promising rainfall outlooks in the summer?

First of all, its well above normal for this time of year including water temps, there is a good chance because of this that the rain season will arrive early.

Furthermore, La Nina is fading quickly, and El Nino may eventually take shape. Neutral conditions to El Nino conditions is a good sign for at least average rain season totals, which always means high abundance. However when I last checked NOAA had at or above average rain as we head further into the wet season as the effects of La Nina fade.

That being said, I'm not sure what makes you so worried about this summer? Regardless of how dry it is this time of year, we usually get soaked June through August into part of October.
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1007. geepy86
Quoting Neapolitan:
For what it's worth, the South Florida Building Code puts a lot of weight (so to speak) into the uplift resistance. A large part of that is, of course, because of Hurricane Andrew; the tens of thousands of destroyed structures of all types gave engineers and other building experts great insight into what works and what doesn't.

Round buildings give the wind a place to go. Flat buildings stop the wind and cause lift. I don't see round buildings in the South Florida Building Code. Just saying.
Building will always be built the cheapest way, not the safest.
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Quoting TemplesOfSyrinxC4:


The planet'll be here and we'll be long gone, just another failed mutation, just another closed-end biological mistake, an evolutionary cul-de-sac, the planet will shake us off like a bad case of fleas, a surface nuisance. What if the only reason for the existence of homo-sapiens was to invent and produce plastics? Maybe we've already fulfilled our only real purpose for living-and the unromantic truth is that the only reason for the (d)evolution of the cosmic fart that is humanity was our ability to refine hydrocarbons to mold into plastics to bless mother Earth with-and now that the answer to the age-old riddle of what's the meaning of life? has been fulfilled-which was plastic creation- there's no reason for our existence on any longer? Maybe life is now just a show from that point on, and we might as well sit back and enjoy the ride?


George Carlin was a smart guy. He saw things for what they were, and instead of wallowing in the tragedy of it all, he turned it into comedy. If we're all doomed anyway, why not go out laughing? :)

We'll eventually see whether or not the human experiment pans out. If we end up nothing more than dry bones and ruins, well, I guess we'll have our answer as to why we haven't seen a lot of intelligent life out there. :P
Member Since: Octubre 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoa!


Went back and made my own graph similar to this one, adding 2012.



In the mean time...


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL IOWA
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MARSEILLES
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 123...

DISCUSSION...AREA OF TSTMS RELATED TO LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SPREAD
EWD/ESEWD FROM ERN IA INTO NW IL OVERNIGHT. A FEED OF MUCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND POTENTIALLY AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL
OR TWO...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.


...THOMPSON
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Article from Scientific American

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= radioactive-iodine-from-from-fukushima-found-in-ca lifornia-kelp

Radioactive Iodine from Fukushima Found in California Kelp

By Marla Cone and Environmental Health News | March 30, 2012

LONG BEACH, Calif. – Kelp off Southern California was contaminated with short-lived radioisotopes a month after Japan’s Fukushima accident, a sign that the spilled radiation reached the state’s urban coastline, according to a new scientific study.
Scientists from California State University, Long Beach tested giant kelp collected in the ocean off Orange County and other locations after the March, 2011 accident, and detected radioactive iodine, which was released from the damaged nuclear reactor.
The largest concentration was about 250-fold higher than levels found in kelp before the accident.

“Basically we saw it in all the California kelp blades we sampled,” said Steven Manley, a Cal State Long Beach biology professor who specializes in kelp.
The radioactivity had no known effects on the giant kelp, or on fish and other marine life, and it was undetectable a month later.
Iodine 131 “has an eight-day half life so it’s pretty much all gone,” Manley said. “But this shows what happens half a world away does effect what happens here. I don’t think these levels are harmful but it’s better if we don’t have it at all.”
A year ago, Manley watched coverage of the tsunami and Fukushima accident and wondered what impact it might have on California’s marine life, particularly his favorite subject matter – kelp.
Spread in large, dense, brown forests across the ocean off California, Macrocystis pyrifera, known as giant kelp, is the largest of all algae and grows faster than virtually any other life on Earth. It accumulates iodine so Manley realized it would be a useful dosimeter to check how far radioactive material spreads.
“Kelp forests are some of the most productive ecosystems on Earth,” he said. “I thought this would be an opportunity because one thing about macrocystis is it has a large surface canopy,” which means it is continually exposed to the air – and whatever contaminants are in it.
In addition, giant kelp concentrates radioactive iodine 10,000-fold – for every one molecule in the water there would be 10,000 in its tissues.
Kelp was collected at three sites off Orange County, as well as Palos Verdes Peninsula in Los Angeles County, Santa Barbara, Pacific Grove and Santa Cruz. The highest concentration of iodine 131 was found in the kelp off Corona del Mar, which receives runoff from a large portion of Orange County. Its kelp was collected on April 15 of last year and tested five days later.
The level of radioactive iodine found there – 2.5 becquerel per gram of dry weight -- was “well above” levels sampled in kelps prior to the Fukushima release, according to the paper, published online earlier this month in the journal Environmental Science & Technology.
It was about 250 times higher than the concentration found in giant kelp off British Columbia before Fukushima.
When kelp from the same California sites was re-sampled a month later, in May of 2011, it contained no detectable amounts of radioactive iodine.
The scientists estimated that the entire kelp tissue on the surface at Corona del Mar contained about one millicurie.
“In terms of overall exposure to the kelp bed itself, it’s not a huge amount,” said Manley.
It would not have harmed the kelp, a species that grows from northern Baja to southeast Alaska, he said.
Some radioactive material probably accumulated in fish that eat the kelp – opaleye, halfmoon and senorita.
“If they were feeding on it, they definitely got dosed. We just don’t know if it was harmful. It’s probably not good for them. But no one knows,” Manley said. “In the marine environment it was significant, but probably not harmful at the levels we detected it, except it may have affected certain fish’s thyroid systems, the ones that fed on the kelp.”
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


I'm not sure why you expected something different. He has made his views clear on several occasions in regards to science and facts. :P


I didn't expect anything different to be honest. I know his views on pretty much everything in the little time he's been on.
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1000. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoa!


2011 was Way ahead of every year over the last decade
Member Since: Noviembre 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8026
Whoa!

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I see a lot of talk here about tor warnings.

Just to add, in case no one mentioned it, many times tor warnings are issued for "a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado."

There is a great deal going on right now toward more specific warning, including the NWS Central Region pilot project someone already mentioned. I heard about this project at the National Severe Weather Workshop earlier this month. This is not an issue of NWS forecasters panicking or trying to panic the public. I'd say there are some private forecasters out there who can do a better job at this any day. lol This pilot project is an effort by the NWS to communicate more clearly. I see the media has begun to pick up on this wording stuff. Been reading mostly cons.

We haven't heard too much in the media about the Weather Ready Nation effort. First meetings took place in December 2011. Fed agencies and "partners." Media being one.

***

RE: The TORNADO EMERGENCY warning language. The stats on "tor emergency" use would blow some of you away!

I had nearly finished a blog about the "Tornado Emergency" wording which was first used May 3, 1999 for the Newcastle-Moore, Oklahoma F5. In my blog, I was going to use some interesting graphics including the criteria for using the words, how many tor emergency warnings have been issued, which offices most frequently issue the "tornado emergency" wording, and verification for these warnings. Info learned at NSSW complete with stats 2000-2011. I think the stats would surprise you! I just never put the blog up because Neo was being mean to me. LOL j/k Neo.
:)

Instead of a blog, I'll link the SPC's NSWW agenda page. Graphics from a lot of the presentations are linked there. Look for a presentation by Patrick Marsh titled "A Review of NWS Tornado Emergencies." (.pdf file) Those of you with an interest in tor warning language might like to take a look at it.

Also lots more of interest on that page. School Safety. Why no fatalities in the St. Louis EF4. Well, have at it if you want. Won't be like being there was, but the graphics contain some good info.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010152Z - 010245Z

AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HRS FROM CNTRL IA EWD INTO NWRN IL...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SPECIFIC TIMING/MAGNITUDE
OF SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW...PERHAPS AS SOON AS THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

SFC ANALYSIS FROM 01Z PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM 30 SSE OTM TO 10 NNW
SUX. TO THE NE OF THE WARM FRONT...RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED
APPROXIMATELY 40 W OF CEDAR RAPIDS...WITH A NARROW WAA REGIME AIDED
BY A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ /PER DMX VWP/. WITH TIME...A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION/EWD EXPANSION OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED. STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /SAMPLED AT 7-8 C/KM PER DVN 00Z SOUNDING/ AND MUCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE W-NWLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW...WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. A MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE
HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE /INCLUDING 23Z WRF-HRRR
AND 12Z WRF-NMM/ APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW/FAR EAST WITH INITIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT GENERAL TREND IS FOR A GRADUAL EWD
EXPANSION OF TSTMS INTO ERN IA AND EVENTUALLY NRN IL AS LOW-LEVEL
WAA BECOMES FOCUSED FARTHER E. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL THREAT
REMAINS...BUT THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS.. 04/01/2012
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Quoting entrelac:

Interesting post. I happen to agree, especially about the early start. Those storms off the TX/LA coast this week certainly made my family take notice and start going over "the plan" earlier than we normally do.


So I see I am not the only one who thought the mid-level low along the Gulf coast was a bit odd this week....anyone else thought it was an interesting feature for this time of year?
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Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:
Third, I am concerned about the warmer waters currently off the coast of Africa all the way to the Caribbean and the US. I have no idea what the wind conditions will be in May for this region; but I suspect that they may not be favorable to bring tropical development towards the Caribbean; but I do suspect that there will be early tropical development coming off the coast of Africa this year and I fully expect it to happen in mid-May. The direction of this development is impossible to ascertain at this point for me, I'm just not that well versed in weather.

With all this being said, I fully expect to have an unusually high number of storms this year throughout the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Whether anything hits land or not, who knows, we can all hope for fish storms; but we get what we get.

Thanks for the interesting post, but I do disagree on two occasions. Current Sea Surface Temperatures are near to below normal across the Eastern Atlantic, especially compared to 2010 and last year. The NAO is also positive, and will probably continue that way, which means a stronger subtropical ridge. What this can do is ultimately strengthen the TUTT, allowing for strong wind shear across the Caribbean. The only favorable place I see for storm development is off the East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico. That is not to say we will not get one or two across the Caribbean/East Atlantic, but it does not seem likely. With warm Neutral to weak El Nio conditions to come back as well, I see an average to slightly above average hurricane season. Generally 14-7-4.

I do agree we'll see early tropical formation as well.
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That's all she wrote...the mid-level low that was riding along the Gulf coast this week is demolished by increased shear...and looks pathetic as it enters the Atlantic from N Florida/S Georgia tonight...

Thought it was a bit tropically interesting when it existed though...but it is only late March/early April after all...
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Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:
Since a made a prediction (guess) that we would have a early start to the hurricane season this year, you will have an opportunity to tell me I was wrong if it doesn't happen.

Interesting post. I happen to agree, especially about the early start. Those storms off the TX/LA coast this week certainly made my family take notice and start going over "the plan" earlier than we normally do.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
For what it's worth, the South Florida Building Code puts a lot of weight (so to speak) into the uplift resistance. A large part of that is, of course, because of Hurricane Andrew; the tens of thousands of destroyed structures of all types gave engineers and other building experts great insight into what works and what doesn't.
I have to agree with you. Down south when I build there the main thing is uplift, when up north it is downforce. All you need to verify this is look at the footings and the size of the columns and bar joist and girders and bracing.
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Where to begin.  I haven't posted in this blog in a long time since every time someone will try to turn it into something it is not.  This is just my opinion like everyone else on here.  I will admit I don't have all the facts because I don't have the time to research this issue to the degree and attention I feel it should deserve.

Several on this blog have alluded to the possibility of a more than average hurricane season this year.  I happen to agree with their assessment for several reasons.

First and foremost is the hundred year weather patterns; which have dictated that the last few years and the next few as well, that we might see unusual weather occurrences such as higher temperatures, extremes between high and low on a given day in certain areas of the country.  Tornadoes during times that are not normally designated as the right time of year.  Short periods of cold weather below normal; but not lasting as long as one would expect.  The hurricane season of 2005 that saw an usual amount of Tropical Events including several that hit land in areas that had not seen Tropical activity since we started recording such events.  This may not be true since some of these areas were not developed 100 years ago.  There's that missing facts thing I mentioned earlier.

Second the Florida Keys has not had a major signification event in a long time.  They have been lucky and I for one hope their luck does not run out as it takes too long even with all the advance notifications that are provided today for the Keys to be evaluated.  People drive the overseas highway every day and see the old Flagler railroad dilapidated and deteriorating and don't give it a second thought.  It should be a constant reminder to what can and will happen at some point.  The bridges we build today may be stronger; but if the island roads leading to the bridges are damaged/destroyed then the bridge is of no significance.  My concern is that the people that live and work in the Florida Keys do not take tropical storm/hurricane warning seriously enough, they have had too many close calls and really don't believe they will be hit with a storm.  Yes, I have spoken with several of the locals on this issue and they feel that I'm just sensationalizing the issue.  You would think the news media would hire me if this was the case...LOL

Third, I am concerned about the warmer waters currently off the coast of Africa all the way to the Caribbean and the US.  I have no idea what the wind conditions will be in May for this region; but I suspect that they may not be favorable to bring tropical development towards the Caribbean; but I do suspect that there will be early tropical development coming off the coast of Africa this year and I fully expect it to happen in mid-May.  The direction of this development is impossible to ascertain at this point for me, I'm just not that well versed in weather.

With all this being said, I fully expect to have an unusually high number of storms this year throughout the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.  Whether anything hits land or not, who knows, we can all hope for fish storms; but we get what we get.

For anyone that has gotten this far, thanks for taking your time to read this long boring post.  I really need to state this someone.  I feel better now.

btw:  Since a made a prediction (guess) that we would have a early start to the hurricane season this year, you will have an opportunity to tell me I was wrong if it doesn't happen.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


That's what we had here too in SE Michigan on Friday....heavy rain with T-storms in the mid-30s. The thunerstorms intermittently produced small hail and briefly one heavy thunderstorm started making wet snow mixed with the rain.

And this after we had temps in the 70s and 80s the week before...the weather is more interesting in Michigan than where I came from in NC....


After I posted that I realized that I should have said "in California".

Snow and thunderstorms, I've seen back east.

We're getting something rare here, quite rare....
Member Since: Febrero 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting trunkmonkey:
construction codes are built on dead and live loads, which means the weight on a down force of the building.
Tornado's lift causing the buildings to separate, thus causing failure.
Building codes do not address tornado's lifting buildings!
For what it's worth, the South Florida Building Code puts a lot of weight (so to speak) into the uplift resistance. A large part of that is, of course, because of Hurricane Andrew; the tens of thousands of destroyed structures of all types gave engineers and other building experts great insight into what works and what doesn't.
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Quoting bappit:

The ACLU often works to protect first amendment rights, but you knew that right?
I am all for the 1st amendment but that does not include treason and the 1st amendment as we know it only pertains here. Different countries different rules.
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Quoting trunkmonkey:
construction codes are built on dead and live loads, which means the weight on a down force of the building.
Tornado's lift causing the buildings to separate, thus causing failure.
Building codes do not address tornado's lifting buildings!
Your almost right. You should never take cover in a clear span area. The wind load rating on the structural walls in that type of construction is maybe 100 mph for a 5 second burst. Once the wall fails the pressure inside is much greater than outside therefor creating uplift, compromising the spot welds on the decking, the bar joist do not move as they are anchored to the remaining walls through imbed plates with a full seam weld. It is a wall failure not a roof failure
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Cyrus you are truly an intelligent person good luck your going to need it i think.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


A tornado warning is issued when radar or satellite indication and/or reliable spotter reports of a tornado.[...]
There is a lack of communication or education here that needs to be resolved, preferably without the need for people to become survivors of tragedy.


I think this video is apt to the conversation and why heading tornado warnings is important.

Tornado in Chickasha, OK (5/24/2011)

What amazed me was how innocent that cloud would look from afar to most people and how quickly the rotation became pronounced. Look how fast it dropped and the amount of damage that happened in a matter of seconds.

I like to think (hope) that the more people see these types of videos the more they will realize that it is a difference of seconds, not minutes, not hours. That if there is a warning or a watch then that means you MUST either act or in the case of a watch, pay attention to what is going on.
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Quoting BobWallace:


And now something that I've heard about, but not experienced before - thunderstorms and snow.

Actually cycling back and forth between snow and small hail.



That's what we had here too in SE Michigan on Friday....heavy rain with T-storms in the mid-30s. The thunerstorms intermittently produced small hail and briefly one heavy thunderstorm started making wet snow mixed with the rain.

And this after we had temps in the 70s and 80s the week before...the weather is more interesting in Michigan than where I came from in NC....
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Quoting nymore:
not sure what your getting at?

The ACLU often works to protect first amendment rights, but you knew that right?
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982. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F
9:00 AM FST April 1 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 17F (1000 hPa) located at 24.9S 176.5E is reported as moving southeast slowly. Position good based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Low level circulation center exposed with deep convection displaced to the east. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Tropical disturbance 17 lies just to the south of an upper level ridge axis in a high sheared environment.

Global models pick up the system and move it south with no further intensification.
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981. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
9:00 AM JST April 1 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.8N 108.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 11.3N 106.2E - Tropical Depression -- Overland Vietnam --

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 3:50 AM UTC..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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