Great Lakes ice cover down 71% since 1973
Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, says a new study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice. The increase in temperature of the lakes could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. They noted a pronounced 4-year and 8-year oscillation in ice coverage, which could be caused by the El Niño/La Niña and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively.
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Figure 1. A tale of two winters: Lake Superior was choked with ice at the end of the winter of 2008 - 2009 (top), but was virtually ice-free at the end of the winter of 2011 - 2012 (bottom.) Image credit: NASA.
The consequences of Great Lakes ice loss
Ice coverage on the Great Lakes was just 5% this past winter, the second lowest on record, behind 2002. The lack of Great Lakes ice this winter probably added a few degrees of warmth to the unprecedented "Summer in March" conditions observed in Michigan last week--an event the National Weather Service in Detroit called "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago." We can anticipate that areas surrounding the Great Lakes will see an increased incidence of warm spring weather due to decreased ice cover on the lakes.
The loss of Great Lakes ice has allowed much more water to evaporate in winter, resulting in heavier lake effect snow near the shore, and lower lake levels. Lower water levels have had a significant impact on the Great Lakes economy. Over 200 million tons of cargo are shipped every year through the Great Lakes. Since 1998, when water levels took a severe drop, commercial ships were forced to light-load their vessels. For every inch of clearance that these oceangoing vessels lost because of low water levels, $11,000 - $22,000 in profits were lost per day. Hydropower plants have also been affected by low water levels; several New York and Michigan plants were run at reduced capacity, forcing them to buy higher priced energy from other sources, and passing on the higher costs to consumers. The large loss of ice is also likely to accelerate shoreline erosion because of the increase in open water, and promote more algal blooms. It is uncertain if the Great Lake water levels will continue to fall as the climate warms, since the region is expected to see an increase in precipitation over the coming decades. In Michigan, annual precipitation increased by about 14% between 1895 - 2011, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
Figure 2. Great Lakes ice coverage for the period December 4 - March 5, from the winter of 1980 - 1981 through 2011 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 had the second lowest ice coverage on record, just 5%. Only 2001 - 2002 (4.5%) had lower ice cover. The median ice coverage between 1980 - 2011 was about 19%. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Figure 3. Water levels on Lake Superior between 1860 and February 2012. Since the late 1990s, water levels have seen a steep decline, due to the loss of ice cover allowing more evaporation. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.
References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.
Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)
Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back by Monday at the latest with a new post, and may post some weather humor on Sunday (April Fools Day), as well.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It won't affect me. (At least in any fashion that I can imagine.)
Doesn't that mean I should ignore it?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1253 PM AST FRI MAR 30 2012
PRC073-081-141-301945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0096.120330T1653Z-120330T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
JAYUYA PR-LARES PR-UTUADO PR-
1253 PM AST FRI MAR 30 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
JAYUYA...LARES AND UTUADO
* UNTIL 345 PM AST
* AT 1252 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...RAPID RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 345 PM AST.
ALSO...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY IN STEEP TERRAIN.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1832 6688 1830 6661 1820 6657 1827 6688
$$
CASTRO
You all should be ashamed of yourselves as ADULTS on this blog, villifying and shunning this poor kid who has enough things going against him as it is. He just wants to share and discuss his love for the weather with others who also share his passion for meteorology. He may be misguided and naive tithe world due to homeschooling and a strict Christian upbringing, but how on earth does that give anyone the right to act like this? Please, be mature grown-ups and either Ignore or deal with it, because after sorting through the little bit of ridiculousness from him, he does have a lot to share and learn wih this blog.
Not defending him, just asking everyone to take a deep breath, step back, and assess how you are acting.
And I am not even an adult, and yet I'm being the voice of reason here...
March 29, 2012
March 29, 2012
Contradictions abound. Just saying.
Nicely put. Believe it or not, i was on this site yesterday, about this time, and do you know that this very subject was being discussed......no kidding.
Nerds without religion..who would have thought?
Impressive little disturbance rotating from the Gulf of Mexico. If the system wasn't moving so quick and had more time, then I would be watching for development from such a disturbance.
Vertical instability is above average as well
Some people just don't want to be helped, sad to say.
yah but it is boring rain.
But yes, we could use it to get rid of pollen and to help emerging plants.
After getting called out by an environmental group, General Motors has pulled support from the Heartland Institute, a Chicago-based nonprofit well-known for attacking the science behind global warming and climate change.
The automaker told the Heartland Institute last week that it won't be making further donations, spokesman Greg Martin said. At a speech earlier this month, GM CEO Dan Akerson said his company is running its business under the assumption that climate change is real.
"We applaud GM's decision and the message it sends -- that it is no longer acceptable for corporations to promote the denial of climate change and that support for an organization like Heartland is not in line with GM's values," said Daniel Souweine, campaign director for Forecast the Facts, a group that urges meteorologists to talk more openly about climate change.
Internal documents leaked in February showed that the General Motors Foundation -- which the automaker runs separately from its business -- donated to the institute $15,000 in 2010 and again in 2011, with another $15,00 expected to be gifted this year.
Heartland, which identifies itself as a free-market think tank, has questioned the ideas on global warming through its newsletters, web site and associated scientists. Last year, the tagline for its annual conference on the subject was "Global Warming: Was It Ever Really a Crisis?"
Joseph Bast, president of The Heartland Institute, said GM had been a Heartland supporter for 20 years.
"We regret the loss of their support, particularly since it was prompted by false claims contained in a fake memo circulated by disgraced climate scientist Peter Gleick," he said in a statement. "We once again respectfully ask liberal advocacy groups such as Huffington Post, the Center for American Progress, 350.org and Greenpeace to stop attacking scientists who question the theory of man-made global warming and corporations and foundations that are willing to fund open debate on this important public policy issue."
The Heartland Institute said the internal documents were stolen by someone posing as a member of the board, who asked for the material to be sent to a new email account. Since then, Peter Gleick, president and co-founder of the Pacific Institute, a climate research group, has confessed to the stunt, adding that he regrets his actions.
The bulk of Heartland's funding comes from one anonymous donor, who has given the group $11 million since 2007.
Nonprofit groups are not legally obligated to reveal their donors. Previously Heartland was transparent about its funding, even posting a list of contributors on its website, but removed it in 2004.
"Critics who couldn't or wouldn't engage in fair debate over our ideas found the donor list a convenient place to find the names of unpopular companies or foundations, which they used in ad hominem attacks against us," institute representatives wrote after taking down the list. "After much deliberation and with some regret, we now keep confidential the identities of all our donors."
GM was not the only automaker to fund the Heartland Institute: Ford and Chrysler also contributed to it in the past. Ford and Chrysler told The Huffington Post that they had stopped funding the organization over the past decade, but neither automaker had records detailing reasons for pulling that support.
Interesting feature to your SW Pat.
May even see some storms into MS, and S AL and GA.
Now i need to trend stronger, and more northeasterly, so it will set up a nice outbreak over N GA :)
The system takes on a negative tilt across TX and OK, before weakening again
you might be surprised how often I have found that to be the case...
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some people dont want the kind of help that the public offers because it does nothing good. I accept all the help I can get if its does what the word means
I basically agree with you and have had an Ignore list with one name on it for some time.
I think people are now talking less about this individual's personal "difficulties" and more about how other members are encouraging him by quoting his attacks, thus circumventing the Ignore function for those who have no interest in his stuff.
Now, does he have a lot to share?
Would you take travel directions from someone who believes the world to be flat?
I'm doing good Janiel. Getting back into some forecasting myself. You?
The Cutoff Low on the GFS:
Customer: “I don’t have a ‘P’.”
Tech Support: “On your keyboard, Bob.”
Customer: “What do you mean?”
Tech Support: “‘P’ on your keyboard, Bob.”
Customer: “What! I’m not going to do that!”
That must hurt..being cut off from his mom and dad up north...lol. Be careful with that little cut-off kid...he might get mad and cause severe weather everywhere xD
Yes, it's sort of like watching toddler walk around with a bucket on its head.
Cumulus field has already erupted everywhere up here...looks as if it's going to miss me...sig
Indiana is going to get rocked this afternoon...
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