February 2012 the globe's 22nd warmest; record Hawaii hailstone confirmed
February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
La Niña weakens, almost gone
A borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.
February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.
Figure 2. Record-setting hailstone from the Hawaii 'supercell' thunderstorm that hit the Hawaiian island of Oahu on March 9, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/National Weather Service.
Huge hailstone sets Hawaii record
A hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.
Jeff Masters
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
832 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012
PRC095-151-300230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0089.120330T0032Z-120330T0230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MAUNABO PR-YABUCOA PR-
832 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
MAUNABO AND YABUCOA
* UNTIL 1030 PM AST
* AT 830 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1799 6593 1807 6600 1809 6597 1810 6595
1809 6594 1811 6593 1806 6581 1798 6591
$$
OMS
1. The areas south of the Azores islands and the gulf stream off the northeast CONUS are both above average
2. Warming waters in EPac are sign of a forming El Nino
Extra credit: I havnt a clue what that effects lol
Yea, its definitely not the easiest major in the world. Stick it out, get your degree, then you can do whatever you want. Qualified mets are going to be a hot commodity for the next 20-30 years. Like our chief met here says, what we do sure beats working.
¿CUANTO HA LLOVIDO?
Según los estimados registrados por el Servicio Geológico de Estados Unidos (USGS) municipios del centro norte de la Isla han experimentado las lluvias más significativas en las pasadas 24 horas: Utuado 12.62", Jayuya 8.13", Lares 6.56", Naguabo 6.22", Añasco 5.38" y Río Grande 5.23".
USGS Estimates for PR for the past 24 hrs.:
Utuado 12.62",
Jayuya 8.13",
Lares 6.56",
Naguabo 6.22",
Añasco 5.38"
Río Grande 5.23
1st two have already been answered, but the extra credit isn't. I think it would put the ITCZ further north than usual, but combined with the increase in shear due to El Niño should cause a less active Cape Verde season...
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
9:00 AM JST March 30 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1000 hPa) located at 9.8N 111.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.2N 110.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.7N 109.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.3N 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 3:50 AM UTC..
Little weak low passing through
Yeah I'm definitely going to stick it out, meteorology is my passion and always has been, my earliest memories as a kid were thunderstorms including a lightning strike that hit a tree in my yard at just 3. I'll stay up till 4 am just to track a line of strong thunderstorms for fun!
I remember literally staying up 36 hours during a tropical cyclone, and being outside in it for the majority of the time, only coming inside to check the computer for radar updates and other info and to eat a meal or 2.
Incredible amounts and despite landslides,many areas that flooded,homes that were filled with mud,the good news is no casualties have occured and I hope it stays that way until the trough goes away and allows dry air to come. And all of this is happening in the driest month of the year in Puerto Rico.
That last image is pretty impressive
Mexicans make great food in general. I grew up in southern AZ and have a big love for mexican food :)
Well, there are always exceptions :)
Agreed...good evening guys!
Link
Link
Hey Chucktown, I'm not doing meteorology, but engineering instead and most of what you do in engineering is Calculus based and if you are doing Electrical Engineering like I'm doing...then you'll have to complete five levels of advanced engineering Mathematics (calculus for engineers)
Or unusually wet & concentrated small hail in heavy rain.
You'll have to have it done... it's a normal part of maintaining your eye health. For people with eye-related medical issues, you may have to have it done several times a year. You don't really feel anything and the benefits to the doctor (of being able to see much more of your retina) far outweigh the inconvenience of temporary brightness.
good point, good point
That's not what you would want to hear
If you are still having concerns with the drought monitor product even after several of us have attempted to explain the procedure further, perhaps your next course of action would be to use the indicated contact information right below the image:
No I'm all meteorology. I graduated about 10 years ago. Doin the TV thang now.
This week
I know that guy
I'm doing engineering. I'm just saying that engineering is quite challenging and math is essential in almost all careers
PRC037-053-300430-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0012.120330T0138Z-120330T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA
FAJARDO
* UNTIL 1230 AM AST
* AT 932 PM AST...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO FAJARDO. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS
A FLOODED ROADWAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
&&
LAT...LON 1827 6563 1826 6574 1828 6574 1835 6563
$$
OMS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
What up Press? Yea, you do know who that is. We gotta get another shout out to Portlight one of these days. You know how to get me.
I'll hit ya up after Easter...Have you been to Duke's BBQ on James Island? I could easily be talked into havin' lunch there...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012
PRC029-031-037-053-087-089-103-119-300415-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0088.000000T0000Z-120330T0415Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CEIBA PR-NAGUABO PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-LUQUILLO PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
951 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CEIBA...NAGUABO...FAJARDO...CAROLINA.. .LUQUILLO...
RIO GRANDE AND LOIZA
* UNTIL 1215 AM AST
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...RAPID RISES IN
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 1215 AM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1844 6587 1838 6574 1837 6568 1837 6562
1834 6563 1830 6562 1819 6568 1840 6599
1845 6597
$$
OMS
We should have a Portlight conference once a year, and invite the key volunteers for that year as kind of a thank you dinner so to speak... What you guys think?? I don't live near any of you, but I can plan any event!! LOL!
I love the thought of that....some of us got together in Destin 3 years ago and had a blast...message me sometime if you'd like to noodle on it...
Cell near McAllen doesnt look too friendly..
Tornado Warned storms usually aren't ;)
Press, I'll shoot you an email once I have the time to get some ideas together.
As you know, anytime Portlight needs me, I will do my best to be there! Hopefully this setup early next week sums up to just be just a tempest in a tea pot, but I guess only time will tell.
McAllen is just not doing so well right now. :P
That storm has 3 to 4 inch an hour rain rates, if the tornado is rain wrapped there won't be any visible on it, that's for sure.
Nope. I've noticed over the past few weeks in tornado warnings to say that NWS Meteorologists are tracking a tornado. I guess that means they're using dual pol? At least, that's what my met. friend told me.
1 hour Surface Rainfall
Vert. Integrated Liquid. (MAXED OUT!)
I was thinking that myself actually, its getting dark and that storm is dropping copious amounts of rain so seeing a tornado there would be hard. I've also observed the "tracking a tornado" wording frequently in the past few weeks. The use of dual-pole might the reason.
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