Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:13 PM GMT en Marzo 26, 2012 | +31 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Are those images from 2010 and 2011 hurricane season?
Mammoth new green climate fund wants United Nations-style diplomatic immunity, even though it’s not part of the UN
Working on it....
But more specifically on the statement "deliberate manipulation etc etc".
Have not found much on that.
This is the biggest of big government. This idea is probably going to be implemented. It is already being experimented with in many countries, and by private corporations. You will survive at their mercy and will have no idea where to hide.
You have any links on this?
The past two hurricane seasons have shown that there is no direct correlaton with number of storms and impacts
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND...LONG ISLAND BAYS AND NEW YORK HARBOR
ANZ345-270515-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
157 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
.THIS AFTERNOON...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. WAVES
AROUND 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT...DIMINISHING
TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE. WAVES SUBSIDING TO AROUND
2 FT.
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BECOMING
W AROUND 5 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
.WED...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WAVES 1 FT OR LESS...THEN AROUND 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT.
$$
Thanks, I saw that.
I'll keep going until I can find something more definitive on the idea of "deliberate manipulation" though.
I know it's one of wxmod's pet subjects.......
Look at the plume on the pic.
Here is the Soufriere at real time.
March 25, 2012
Links are readily available. Here's the trick.
in your search, with your query words in quotes, type site:edu or site:gov
Check "solar radiation management"
"radiative forcing"
"stratospheric seeding"
At Patents Online search for:
"stratospheric welsbach effect"
Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible
"The world is close to reaching tipping points that will make it irreversibly hotter, making this decade critical in efforts to contain global warming, scientists warned on Monday.
Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably.
As emissions grow, scientists say the world is close to reaching thresholds beyond which the effects on the global climate will be irreversible, such as the melting of polar ice sheets and loss of rainforests.
"This is the critical decade. If we don't get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines," said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London.
Despite this sense of urgency, a new global climate treaty forcing the world's biggest polluters, such as the United States and China, to curb emissions will only be agreed on by 2015 - to enter into force in 2020.
"We are on the cusp of some big changes," said Steffen. "We can ... cap temperature rise at two degrees, or cross the threshold beyond which the system shifts to a much hotter state."
TIPPING POINTS
For ice sheets - huge refrigerators that slow down the warming of the planet - the tipping point has probably already been passed, Steffen said. The West Antarctic ice sheet has shrunk over the last decade and the Greenland ice sheet has lost around 200 cubic km (48 cubic miles) a year since the 1990s.
Most climate estimates agree the Amazon rainforest will get drier as the planet warms. Mass tree deaths caused by drought have raised fears it is on the verge of a tipping point, when it will stop absorbing emissions and add to them instead.
Around 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon were lost in 2005 from the rainforest and 2.2 billion tonnes in 2010, which has undone about 10 years of carbon sink activity, Steffen said.
One of the most worrying and unknown thresholds is the Siberian permafrost, which stores frozen carbon in the soil away from the atmosphere.
"There is about 1,600 billion tonnes of carbon there - about twice the amount in the atmosphere today - and the northern high latitudes are experiencing the most severe temperature change of any part of the planet," he said.
In a worst case scenario, 30 to 63 billion tonnes of carbon a year could be released by 2040, rising to 232 to 380 billion tonnes by 2100. This compares to around 10 billion tonnes of CO2 released by fossil fuel use each year.
Increased CO2 in the atmosphere has also turned oceans more acidic as they absorb it. In the past 200 years, ocean acidification has happened at a speed not seen for around 60 million years, said Carol Turley at Plymouth Marine Laboratory.
This threatens coral reef development and could lead to the extinction of some species within decades, as well as to an increase in the number of predators.
As leading scientists, policy-makers and environment groups gathered at the "Planet Under Pressure" conference in London, opinions differed on what action to take this decade.
London School of Economics professor Anthony Giddens favors focusing on the fossil fuel industry, seeing as renewables only make up 1 percent of the global energy mix.
"We have enormous inertia within the world economy and should make much more effort to close down coal-fired power stations," he said.
Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell favours working on technologies leading to negative emissions in the long run, like carbon capture on biomass and in land use, said Jeremy Bentham, the firm's vice president of global business environment.
The conference runs through Thursday."
koff koff koff !
Sorry to hear that.
Soufriere has been belching for about a week.
We have intermittent grey sky here too and a decent shower this morning, but it's coming from out of the Amazon basin. Not as strong as last week, but still coming....
Surface winds are pretty stiff from NE.
OK. Thanks for that. Appreciated.
No...the sky is pretty clear...Soufriere is lookin a bit more ominous though
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/may/29/ greentech.geoengineering?INTCMP=SRCH
Oh we'll have to get far passed the irreversible stage to wake people up.
I don't think it's possible to say that global warming is nearly irreversible because we've never had this problem before. Obviously we need to change things and try to stop the problem but saying it is irreversible without any way to prove that is irresponsible.
Easy to see why.
Nice view of the beach
Yeah, I know...I was just pointing that out
Link
Carbon dioxide pollution was discovered to be a problem in the 60s, I believe. Well, here we are 50 years later and nothing has been done to solve the problem. So, give me a break. It's irreversible already. No society is moving in a positive direction.
Landfalls are more a function of pure luck: on where the long wave position just happens to be when the one or few US approaching storms just happen to come along.
What about the severe weather outbreak?
Event Summary
In recent years, Central America has suffered several large-scale natural disasters that have left behind a legacy of death and destruction. The disruption of economic activity and costly reconstruction efforts create a heavy burden of social exclusion and debt. Given the region’s propensity for natural disasters—which are likely to increase due to changing climate patterns— there is a need for better regional cooperation in risk management.
Event Information
When
Thursday, March 29, 2012
9:00 AM to 11:00 AM
Where
Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map
Event Materials
Reuters/Luis Galdamez
Contact: Brookings Office of Communications
Email: events@brookings.edu
Phone: 202.797.6105
RELATED CONTENT
Shrinking the Carbon Footprint of Metropolitan America
Andrea Sarzynski, Marilyn A. Brown and Frank Southworth
The Brookings Institution
May 29, 2008
The Year that Shook the Rich: A Review of Natural Disasters in 2011
Elizabeth Ferris and Daniel Petz
The Brookings Institution
March 2012
Climate Change and the G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit
On March 29, the Latin America Initiative at Brookings and the Central American Bank for Economic Integration will host a discussion on the challenges and implications of climate change for the Central American isthmus and the role that the public and private sectors can play in mitigating and adapting to risks. A panel of experts will examine these issues, followed by a keynote address by José María Figueres, former president of Costa Rica. Brookings Senior Fellow Katherine Sierra will moderate the discussion.
After the program, panelists will take audience questions
Yup... When's the last time we saw a long period of negative NAO?
Looks good if the GFS pans out however the 12Z Euro does not show this now.
Link
Link
Last year I believe.
Thanks,
Hurricane City says South Florida gets hit or brushed every 1.97 years.
Its been 6/7 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_reflectivity_m odification
Incorrect. In fact, most societies are moving in the right direction. While we haven't yet gone far enough to stop the problem, we have laid a foundation to build on.
I am open to suggestions as to why it would not become irreversible. Do you have anything that suggests that it will not become irreversible?
You light a match.
The match catches the paper on fire.
The paper falls on the dry gas.
The dry grass begins to burn.
The burning grass catches the bush on fire.
The burning bush catches the trees on fire.
The forest begins to burn.
Hot embers from the forest fire jumps to an adjacent forest.
the chain continues beyond this until the fire can no longer support itself.
When this chain of events start, it is easy to break the chain close to its beginning. The further down the chain that the event is allowed to continue, the more difficult it becomes to break the chain. When you allow the chain of events to continue unrestrained then the chain of events will eventually continue beyond your control. ... Putting out the match after the forest has caught on fire has no effect on the forest that is now burning and continuing the chain reaction beyond the match. ... This is why that was not an irresponsible thing to say.
Yes but it's proven smoking, obesity, etc. kills people. We can't prove global warming irreversible.
Btw, I'm not denying global warming. I actually believe strongly in it. I'm just saying we can't say for sure it is irreversible.
I feel like it's me against the blog :P
How does it not become irreversible: We become more energy efficient, use more solar/wind power, less fossil fuels. We use energy efficient lighting. We make better electric cars. Etc, etc, etc. It's not going to happen overnight. But it can happen. And it can stop global warming.
I don't see how we can reverse it. Too much of relying on fossil fuels and this will not change for sometime to come and if we EVER got away from it then the damage would have been done already.
Foundation laid? Show me anything that indicates there is a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions anywhere in the world or that there will be soon.
It's already changing. Baby steps. When President Kennedy said we would put a man on the Moon in 10 years, a rocket didn't just fall out of the sky. We built it. We researched what we needed to do and found a way to do it. Was it easy? No. Will stopping global warming be easy? No. Did we put a man on the Moon? Yes. Can we stop global warming? Yes.
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