March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?
The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:
262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999
Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.
Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.
The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:
1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.
2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.
3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.
Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.
If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.
Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.
Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:
"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.
The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.
Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.
We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."
An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."
I'll have a new post by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It should, but at the expense of hurricanes. In weather, you can't have your cake and eat it too. Someone will always complain about something. ;)
I'd rather take apple pie.
Now you're making me hungry.
That's jes plain mean. How would you like to have your camera fireballed?
What's a grit?
I hope you're joking, Gro =P
Sort of like a gnit ?
Or a gnat?
It would be a first, for him.
You're just too young to remember the movie.
Evening Grothar, and everyone....
We have had 2 consecutive days of SUNSHINE !
Big change, that!
The fruit trees are confused and the grass is as high as an elephants eye and all is well.
Is there a good reason that there is a background conversation about me occuring at this time?
Nope.
Contrary to what you might think, none of us here particularly dislike you. We don't align with your conservative viewpoints, but that's part of living in a free society.
I've said before that you are a good kid, but I'm not going to censor my opinions just because it might offend you. Again, that is part of living in a free society. You will experience things you neither like nor agree with. And I think that's perfectly acceptable.
I mentioned you because I felt it was a valid comparison. My former self was like you. In every way.
I thought not:)
If somebody is talking negatively about me, it would be pleasant if they would tell me!!
He wasn't talking bad about you and it's not like you cannot see the comment...
LOL
I really loved the remake of True Grit.
Very warm and dry here. We didn't get the rain that Palm Beach did. Just a little. I don't remember a year like this at all. It seems every year gets warmer down here. Last summer was brutal.
If you was like me, did you have days where anything your friends do is disagree with you? because that seemed to happen today...this one kid who is 2 months older, 30 pounds lighter, and 6 inches shorter LOVES to act like a big tough guy he ISNT. and when he sees that he isnt big, he keeps resisting that and takes it out on everybody else. i mean come on, he says he is more 'manly' then me at 13, and he doesnt even have armpit hair lol. xD
Have a great evening, all.
Pull it together people... This blog is all over the place tonight... I guess that's what happens when we run out of interesting weather!
Oh brother..
LinkLoop
That wasn't the movie to which I was referring.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
321 PM PDT TUE MAR 13 2012
...HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TWO VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
IN QUICK SUCCESSION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES.
WAZ513-518-519-140530-
/O.UPG.KSEW.WS.A.0009.120314T1300Z-120316T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.W.0014.120314T1300Z-120316T0100Z/
OLYMPICS-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
321 PM PDT TUE MAR 13 2012
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM PDT
THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
PDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...HURRICANE RIDGE...MOUNT BAKER...
STEVENS PASS...SNOQUALMIE PASS...PARADISE...WHITE PASS.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE BELOW 1000 FEET AS THE FIRST STORM
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3000
FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 4000 TO 5000 FEET THURSDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LOCATIONS IN THE CASCADES ABOVE 4500 FEET
LIKE MOUNT BAKER AND PARADISE AT MOUNT RAINIER WILL GET THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET
POSSIBLE. SNOQUALMIE PASS AND STEVENS PASS WILL RECEIVE LESS
SNOW...PROBABLY 1 TO 2 FEET. HURRICANE RIDGE IN THE OLYMPICS
WILL LIKELY GET 16 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.
* MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. DELAYS ARE LIKELY AND
ROAD CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR AVALANCHE CONTROL.
PEOPLE PLANNING TO TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND LISTEN TO THE LATEST HIGHWAY
CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN 18 INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY
DURING A 24 HOUR PERIOD OR STRONG WINDS WITH SNOW ARE EXPECTED.
&&
I guess you are right. It is just that we didn't have any weather at all here today where we are.
LOL, Brilliant!
Romney walking around Alabama and Mississippi wearing blue jeans, saying y'all, saying he ate cheese grits and sausage, and hob nobbing with Jeff Foxworthy is probably worth at least 10 percentage points in the polls but I will be surprised if he wins either state.
I made a post earlier about them... Both of them, especially Venus, are very bright.
I remember the old youth days when I used to compare manliness amongst my pears based on someones armpit hair or facial hair. By the time you're my age you realize growth of hair earlier generally speaking is genetic, and has very little to do with strength and male ability, I was the body hairless kid in high school who got made fun of, until I got older and ended up much stronger than them. Plus by the time you're my age you are happy to lack in body hair, I don't grow back hair and I don't have to shave as often, I consider that a plus.
Furthermore by the time you're my age who is stronger or weaker really no longer matters much anyway, haha. From here it becomes who uses their head better :)
Not that I'm not dismissing physical ability, I'm a very athletic and physical health focused person, and am actually quite gifted athletically, but because I'm not good enough to ever be professional in any athletics I don't really care about who is stronger or who isn't any more. I pursue strength for health and ability to help others these days. Physical health also becomes much more important to mental health the older you get.
In fact scientists have proven that brain health can strongly be inhibited by poor diet and lack of exercise, so don't neglect the body :)
Yeah, very nice clear view here.
Due west from me.
I second this.
I'm sorry, but I can't just not spark random conversation in the absence of interesting weather.
Hey, you can't blame Romney, he knows some literally won't vote for him unless he becomes "one with dixie" itself, lol.
La Nina still lingers.
Lol... He's certainly not a Southerner. Santorum leads both states as of now but it's close.
Lua:
Santorum kinda scares me, hes like Bush version 2.0^(2)
I know all about greens and grits, and I enjoy eating them.
I also own an old 4x4 Chevy pickup and and 3 firearms, and I could completely survive out in the wilderness without any help from civilization, does that qualify me as a true deep south man?
Since you brought this up...
Pretty much anyone who is older than you but smaller than you will always do this to you. In my case it is amplified :P; I am 1 foot taller, 70 pounds heavier and 11 months younger and he can drive. He does the same to me. It gets annoying after a while and only 9 more months (when i can drive myself) until this stupidity is over for me!
I don't get how these guys think they can represent the American people.
Is that..do I dare call it..an eye?
Actually it could be, this was 4 hours ago:
I think it is possible for convection to wrap around already and for an eye to start clearing out...
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