March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?
The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:
262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999
Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.
Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.
The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:
1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.
2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.
3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.
Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.
If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.
Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.
Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:
"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.
The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.
Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.
We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."
An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."
I'll have a new post by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
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nature and her fury is unstopable
*Repost from last blog*
There is a line of showers and thunderstorms across northeastern Illinois at this time. As it moves eastward into a more favorable environment, storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
March predictions for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season 3/12/12
Great blog! I may need to raise my numbers to 15 7 3. 2004 was warm nuetral and that did not bode well for FL.
This was the Manchester, South Dakota tornado on June 7, 2003. It was rated an F4 (EF5 on the new scale). Record-breaking meteorological data was attained from this tornado, as it directly hit a probe. At the center of the half-mile tornado, a minimum barometric pressure of 100 mbar was observed, with winds estimated near 260 mph.
Pretty amazing...
2004 was a Modiki El Nino, which is different than a typical one.
Statement as of 10:59 AM CDT on March 12, 2012
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Vermilion river at Lafayette, Surrey street gage.
* From this afternoon to Tuesday evening... or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 10:15 am Monday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river is forecast to crest near 11 feet this afternoon.
This is an evolving situation and higher than expected rainfall amounts
will cause stages than currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Impact... at 10.0 feet... minor flooding of heymann park off of
Highway 90 will occur.
1022 am CDT Mon Mar 12 2012
... Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for east central Acadia...
northern Lafayette and south central St. Landry parishes until noon
CDT...
At 1012 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall across the warned area.
Extreme rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches has been estimated by
radar. The city of Carencro has received near 12 inches.
Runoff from this excessive rainfall will cause flash flooding to
occur. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Carencro... Church Point... Cankton... Grand Coteau... Mire and sunset.
The Carencro city police report several homes flooded and are in the
process of coordinating rescues. Additionally... numerous streets are
flooded.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
The thunderstorm activity continues to back-build and will train
across the warned area.
This has evolved into an extremely dangerous
weather situation with added rains up to 4 inches possible.
Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely.
Lat... Lon 3039 9193 3041 9197 3038 9199 3037 9198
3036 9195 3032 9197 3029 9195 3026 9202
3026 9225 3044 9225 3043 9193
Mm
Also, lots of cold for the eastern US. I hope everyone has enjoyed this winter as we may make up for lost time for winter 2012/2013. Winter could be a brutal one for the east.
If there is an El Nino in the first place this year. Cold PDO and ENSO forecasts don't look too promising for anymore than warm-neutral.
Link
It's too early to even start looking at that. However, if we must talk about, we may not get to El Nino conditions. I think we'll stay warm neutral, which would limit the possibilities of a harsh winter for the East.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* AT 1121 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED
FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH NUMEROUS ROADS AND HOMES
FLOODED. IN ADDITION SEVERAL HIGH WATER RESCUES ARE UNDERWAY.
RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF AROUND 15 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THIS IS A RARE EVENT AND MAY CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS
LIKE BAYOU VERMILION AT CARENCRO TO REACH RECORD FLOODING.
MANY ROADS ARE CLOSED AND YOU SHOULD NOT TRAVEL IN THIS AREA TODAY.
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN LAFAYETTE PARISH.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ARNAUDVILLE...BREAUX BRIDGE...CARENCRO...CHURCH POINT...
LEONVILLE...SCOTT...CANKTON...CECILIA...DUSON...GR AND COTEAU...
HENDERSON...MIRE AND SUNSET.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
Ouch...
Link
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...FAR SERN WI...FAR SWRN LOWER MI...NWRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121603Z - 121700Z
DMGG WIND THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
PORTIONS OF NRN IL/SERN WI EWD TOWARDS SWRN LWR MI. A WW DOES NOT
APPEAR IMMINENT PRIMARILY OWING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
THIS AFTERNOON.
A NARROW ZONE OF ASCENT FOCUSED ALONG THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED
UPPER MIDWEST LOW HAS SUPPORTED A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM 20 SE
MLI TO 30 E JVL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED JUST W OF A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS...WITH MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS SLOWLY ADVECTING NWD
INTO SRN WI. PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NERN IL/SERN WI IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW 60S...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
200-500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK INHIBITION WAS NOTED IN 12Z
DVN/ILX SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTING CONVECTION IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR THE
SFC ATTM. BACKGROUND FLOW FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG /40-50 KTS 0.5-3
KM AGL LAYER MEAN FLOW AS SAMPLED BY LOT/ILX VWP/...AND WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...PRIMARY THREAT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DMGG WINDS...BUT A BRIEF/WEAK
TOR THREAT MAY EXIST GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCL/S. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEING THE PRIMARY FACTOR
PRECLUDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT DMGG WIND THREAT ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..ROGERS.. 03/12/2012
Link
This is the last thing in the above article. I put in the bold
........
One thing the experts agree on: Since wind and solar energy are all about the weather, grid operators will need to hire a lot more weather forecasters..
NOPE NOPE NOPE NOPE
The storm really has a beautiful structure.
My specific question is the following. Assuming that a tornado is confirmed "in the sky" by line-of-sight Doppler radar (confirmed rotation) or reporter observation of the funnel, is it still counted in the final numbers even if it did not touch down? NWS issues a lot of tornado warnings based upon confirmed or possible rotation on radar so I was wondering if these count if a visible funnel cloud never fully materialized, touched down, or was never confirmed by visual observation?
Thanks.
Storms in southern Alabama weakened significantly, but more storms headed there from Louisiana.
Oh, and hello by the way.
Still a very anomalous event, however, and thus a flash flood emergency was issued.
1%-chance rainfall for that area over a 6hr period is 8.0-8.5" and we have definitely exceeded that. For comparison 24hr period the 1%-chance rainfall event is ~12.5"
This is a very serious situation with water rescues of school children and people in their homes ongoing. Flooding is most likely right now in our of our ungauged basins. Area hardest hit will be the Vermillion River/Bayou just north of Lafayette, where record flooding may occur.
5:06 PM GMT en Marzo 12, 2012
A tornado is counted only if it touches ground. You have to have visual spotter confirmation or a verified tornado damage path on the ground to get a confirmed tornado; a Doppler radar signature is not enough.
Jeff Masters
the smoke looking thing?
quote:
THE BASICS ABOUT TORNADOES
What is a tornado? According to the Glossary of Meteorology (AMS 2000), a tornado is "a violently rotating column of air, pendant from a cumuliform cloud or underneath a cumuliform cloud, and often (but not always) visible as a funnel cloud." Literally, in order for a vortex to be classified as a tornado, it must be in contact with the ground and the cloud base. Weather scientists haven't found it so simple in practice, however, to classify and define tornadoes. For example, the difference is unclear between an strong mesocyclone (parent thunderstorm circulation) on the ground, and a large, weak tornado. There is also disagreement as to whether separate touchdowns of the same funnel constitute separate tornadoes. It is well-known that a tornado may not have a visible funnel. Also, at what wind speed of the cloud-to-ground vortex does a tornado begin? How close must two or more different tornadic circulations become to qualify as a one multiple-vortex tornado, instead of separate tornadoes? There are no firm answers.
FROM:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/
Repost:D
Link to my blog concerning Invest areas 95S and 96P if u wanna check it out..:)
hello BravesFan aint seen you round here n awhile..how ya doin
SPC just updated the convective outlook, Michigan might get some storms.
good ta hear!
i have recently figured out how to copy and paste text lol. i told yal i wasnt a computer person...xD
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