Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New product allows you to explore record-setting extreme weather
Posted by: Angela Fritz, 6:14 PM GMT en Febrero 23, 2012 +46
We've launched a new extreme weather product this week: Record Extremes. Recent, globally record-setting years have demanded a product that combines U.S. and international record extremes into one, easy to use interface. The Record Extremes page will give you the option to see U.S. and international records on a map and table. You can select any combination of record types at once, which, combined with the map, provides a interesting visual way to investigate record-setting events. The product uses data from three sources: (1) NOAA's National Climate Data Center, (2) Wunderground's U.S. records, and (3) Wunderground's International records.

The NCDC records begin in 1850 and include official NOAA record extreme events for ASOS and COOP weather stations in all 50 U.S. states as well as Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Pacific Islands. In this database you can find records for maximum high temps, minimum high temps, maximum low temps, minimum high temps, snow, and precipitation on daily, monthly, and all-time scales.

The Wunderground extremes were compiled by our weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris monitors 300 stations across the U.S. for Record Extremes in maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and snow events. Most of these U.S. records go back to the end of the 19th century, though the oldest site in this database is Charleston, SC, where precipitation records started in 1737! Internationally, Chris monitors 150 countries worldwide for all-time record high temperatures and all-time record low temperatures. If you're interested in diving deeper into extreme weather in the U.S. and abroad, Chris's book Extreme Weather is an excellent resource.



Figure 1. All-time snow records broken during the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011. These records were found by selecting NCDC as the source, a start date of 2011-01-31, an end date of 2011-02-02, "maximum snowfall," and "all-time."


We built the Record Extremes product to make it easy to find specific records you're looking for, or just browse the records in general.

Check records that were set on a specific date
You can check on records that were set yesterday, for example, by setting the calendar to yesterday's date, and selecting all the record variables and types that you're interested in.

Explore all records set in a certain time range
2011 was a record-setting year for the U.S., and most of the records were high maximum temp and high minimum temps. To see all of these warm records that were set last year, select "NCDC" as the source, 2011-01-01 as the start date and 2011-12-31 as the end date. Select Maximum High Temp and Maximum Low Temp in weather variables, and select all-time in the record type.

View current standing international records in the Wunderground database
Select either the Wunderground International records, and instead of choosing a date range, select "Show current standing records." This will bring up all standing records in the database for whatever record variable and type you select. Whereas we've collected every record ever set or broken from NCDC, the Wunderground records are always the current, standing record, whenever it was set. As you move your map around the globe, you'll see each country's all-time maximum high temp and all-time maximum low temp.

Filter your table results
Looking for a specific location or record within your search results? Use the "Filter Results" option in the table to narrow down your search.

Let us know what you think!

Angela
Categories: Extreme Weather
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301. aspectre 6:58 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Collapse of the ClassicMayan Civilization: "...modest rainfall reductions between times when the Classic Maya Civilization flourished and its collapse -- between AD 800-950. These reductions amount to only 25 to 40 per cent in annual rainfall. But they were large enough for evaporation to become dominant over rainfall, and open water availability was rapidly reduced. The data suggest that the main cause was a decrease in summer storm activity."
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
302. VAbeachhurricanes 7:05 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Theyve really picked up the severe threat here, hopefully we get some nice boomers.

Member Since: Septiembre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4802
303. TampaSpin 7:06 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Looks like GRLevel3 is not bad!
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
304. aspectre 7:14 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
"Horses started out small, about the size of a small dog like a miniature schnauzer...What's surprising is that after they first appeared, they then became even smaller and then dramatically increased in size. and that exactly corresponds to the global warming event, followed by cooling. It had been known that mammals were small during that time and that it was warm, but we hadn't understood that temperature specifically was driving the evolution of body size."
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
305. bappit 7:14 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting wxmod:


These docs are readily available with a quick search. Weather modification has its beginnings in the 1940s. Let's see...since the 40's nothing has changed, right? We're standing still. There is no supercollider, no petawatt laser, no hydrogen bomb. Why on earth would someone think that the science of weather modification has stood still for 72 years when there is so much power to be gained from moving storms, creating hurricanes, etc. What great weapons storms would make. Oh we did that in the 60s in Vietnam. Owning the weather was written before the wide ownership of the personal computer.

Please provide the links. I might not find the links you are thinking of.
Member Since: Mayo 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4389
306. AtHomeInTX 7:23 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting aspectre:
Collapse of the ClassicMayan Civilization: "...modest rainfall reductions between times when the Classic Maya Civilization flourished and its collapse -- between AD 800-950. These reductions amount to only 25 to 40 per cent in annual rainfall. But they were large enough for evaporation to become dominant over rainfall, and open water availability was rapidly reduced. The data suggest that the main cause was a decrease in summer storm activity."



"There are differences too, but the warning is clear. What seems like a minor reduction in water availability may lead to important, long-lasting problems. This problem is not unique to the Yucatan Peninsula, but applies to all regions in similar settings where evaporation is high. Today, we have the benefit of awareness, and we should act accordingly."


I think last year's drought pointed out that we are woefully unprepared whether we are aware or not. And it was scary. The speed at which everything dried up was amazing. And boy do you feel helpless. There is just nothing you can do. On a brighter note things are getting better in a lot of Texas. And locally we are officially NOT IN A DROUGHT anymore! Just hoping it's enough come summer. In the meantime if the wind would lie down I could go fishing. :D




Significant rise on Rayburn eases water restrictions
Posted: Feb 23, 2012 8:16 PM CST Updated: Feb 23, 2012 9:15 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn - bio | email

Thanks to the fourteen plus inches of rainfall across Southeast Texas since the beginning of this year and the resulting six plus feet increase in Sam Rayburn's lake level the LNVA has removed all restrictions for irrigation.

Last Saturday's heavy rainfall made a significant improvement in the drought locally. Some areas are no longer in a drought with the Lakes and Coastal Sections of Southeast Texas continuing in a Moderate Drought...the lowest level of the drought index.

Still, LNVA is experiencing Stage 1 Moderate Water Shortage Conditions and is requesting a 30% voluntary reduction of non-essential water use and to prevent wasting of water. At present, the Lower Neches Valley Authority is accepting applications for rice farm irrigation contracts through March 15th.

Because of the historic drought of 2011, Sam Rayburn dropped to 150.79 Feet on November 22nd. The current level is 157. 1 Feet...a rise of 6.3 Feet. The normal lake level is 164.4 Feet.

The forecast from the Climate Prediction Center forecasts above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall the next three months. La Nina, the abnormal cooling of the Eastern Pacific waters produces global weather impacts. The current La Nina is forecasted to dissipate by late Spring.

Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3890
307. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:50 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting AtHomeInTX:



"There are differences too, but the warning is clear. What seems like a minor reduction in water availability may lead to important, long-lasting problems. This problem is not unique to the Yucatan Peninsula, but applies to all regions in similar settings where evaporation is high. Today, we have the benefit of awareness, and we should act accordingly."


I think last year's drought pointed out that we are woefully unprepared whether we are aware or not. And it was scary. The speed at which everything dried up was amazing. And boy do you feel helpless. There is just nothing you can do. On a brighter note things are getting better in a lot of Texas. And locally we are officially NOT IN A DROUGHT anymore! Just hoping it's enough come summer. In the meantime if the wind would lie down I could go fishing. :D




Significant rise on Rayburn eases water restrictions
Posted: Feb 23, 2012 8:16 PM CST Updated: Feb 23, 2012 9:15 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn - bio | email

Thanks to the fourteen plus inches of rainfall across Southeast Texas since the beginning of this year and the resulting six plus feet increase in Sam Rayburn's lake level the LNVA has removed all restrictions for irrigation.

Last Saturday's heavy rainfall made a significant improvement in the drought locally. Some areas are no longer in a drought with the Lakes and Coastal Sections of Southeast Texas continuing in a Moderate Drought...the lowest level of the drought index.

Still, LNVA is experiencing Stage 1 Moderate Water Shortage Conditions and is requesting a 30% voluntary reduction of non-essential water use and to prevent wasting of water. At present, the Lower Neches Valley Authority is accepting applications for rice farm irrigation contracts through March 15th.

Because of the historic drought of 2011, Sam Rayburn dropped to 150.79 Feet on November 22nd. The current level is 157. 1 Feet...a rise of 6.3 Feet. The normal lake level is 164.4 Feet.

The forecast from the Climate Prediction Center forecasts above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall the next three months. La Nina, the abnormal cooling of the Eastern Pacific waters produces global weather impacts. The current La Nina is forecasted to dissipate by late Spring.

current nina is already gone with a strong nino building


Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
308. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:55 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    


Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
309. aspectre 9:11 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
310. LargoFl 9:57 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Good Morning ! 69 here this morning along the gulf coast, with a steady breeze which is unusual, maybe a front coming down....well have a great day everyone
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
311. aspectre 10:07 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
312. trunkmonkey 10:42 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting AtHomeInTX:



"There are differences too, but the warning is clear. What seems like a minor reduction in water availability may lead to important, long-lasting problems. This problem is not unique to the Yucatan Peninsula, but applies to all regions in similar settings where evaporation is high. Today, we have the benefit of awareness, and we should act accordingly."


I think last year's drought pointed out that we are woefully unprepared whether we are aware or not. And it was scary. The speed at which everything dried up was amazing. And boy do you feel helpless. There is just nothing you can do. On a brighter note things are getting better in a lot of Texas. And locally we are officially NOT IN A DROUGHT anymore! Just hoping it's enough come summer. In the meantime if the wind would lie down I could go fishing. :D




Significant rise on Rayburn eases water restrictions
Posted: Feb 23, 2012 8:16 PM CST Updated: Feb 23, 2012 9:15 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn - bio | email

Thanks to the fourteen plus inches of rainfall across Southeast Texas since the beginning of this year and the resulting six plus feet increase in Sam Rayburn's lake level the LNVA has removed all restrictions for irrigation.

Last Saturday's heavy rainfall made a significant improvement in the drought locally. Some areas are no longer in a drought with the Lakes and Coastal Sections of Southeast Texas continuing in a Moderate Drought...the lowest level of the drought index.

Still, LNVA is experiencing Stage 1 Moderate Water Shortage Conditions and is requesting a 30% voluntary reduction of non-essential water use and to prevent wasting of water. At present, the Lower Neches Valley Authority is accepting applications for rice farm irrigation contracts through March 15th.

Because of the historic drought of 2011, Sam Rayburn dropped to 150.79 Feet on November 22nd. The current level is 157. 1 Feet...a rise of 6.3 Feet. The normal lake level is 164.4 Feet.

The forecast from the Climate Prediction Center forecasts above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall the next three months. La Nina, the abnormal cooling of the Eastern Pacific waters produces global weather impacts. The current La Nina is forecasted to dissipate by late Spring.



Is there any evidence of La Nina now?

The Drought Monitor is still showing drought conditions for this area? YES

This is the reason I doubt some weather scientist and their figers!

Lier's figer and figers lie!
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 467
313. MAweatherboy1 11:13 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Good morning. I think today has a much higher risk for severe weather than yesterday. Wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk area added by SPC.
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379
314. AussieStorm 11:16 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting aspectre:
Somewhere, over the rainbow...

WOW!!! Where and when was that???
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366
315. AussieStorm 11:23 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Currently in SE Queensland



Transmitters serving the area between Tewantin and Caloundra are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND
for FLASH FLOODING

For people in parts of the
GYMPIE and
SUNSHINE COAST Council Areas.

Issued at 8:58 pm Friday, 24 February 2012.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 8:50 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Maroochydore and Noosa Heads. These thunderstorms are slow moving. Very dangerous thunderstorms are forecast to affect the area north of Noosa Heads and Tewantin by 9:20 pm and Caloundra by 9:50 pm.

Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely.

100mm of rainfall has been recorded at Noosa Heads in the 1 hour to 8:55pm.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wiede Bay and Burnett and the Darlong Downs and Granite Belt districts.
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366
316. Slamguitar 11:38 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
12 hours after the snow started falling in southwest Michigan, we have 1.5 to 2" of snow and we're about halfway through this system. I eye balled it because it's still dark and looks cold outside, but I'll get a real reading soon. The ground was very warm, and the back end of this system looks heavy. Can anyone on the west side of the lake confirm? Lake effect might still add a tiny bit, so I could end up with 4 or 5 inches.
Member Since: Julio 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1021
317. MahFL 11:51 AM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting Slamguitar:
12 hours after the snow started falling in southwest Michigan, we have 1.5 to 2" of snow and we're about halfway through this system. I eye balled it because it's still dark and looks cold outside, but I'll get a real reading soon. The ground was very warm, and the back end of this system looks heavy. Can anyone on the west side of the lake confirm? Lake effect might still add a tiny bit, so I could end up with 4 or 5 inches.


Get outside you wus !...looks cold !, you live there, get outside !
Member Since: Junio 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430
318. MahFL 12:04 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Parking lots - great places for solar farms....



Er, no.
Member Since: Junio 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430
319. uncwhurricane85 12:05 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
dew point in the mid 60's and 70 degrees heading to 80 in the fayetteville, raleigh area of N.C., almost definite chance of severe storms, with low chance of tornado! i would not be surprised to see something popping off here from those storms developing in GA heading up towards that area!
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 559
320. MahFL 12:09 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting RTSplayer:


Not only do you get free power.


There is no such thing as free power, solar panels cost money to make and install.
Member Since: Junio 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430
321. MAweatherboy1 12:13 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
It's snowing as hard as I've ever seen it snow right now... I already have the "coating" that was forecast and it's only been snowing for a few minutes
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379
322. MahFL 12:19 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting RTSplayer:




It's going to take 53 years to break even at that VA Hospitial, and the system won't last 53 years, so it will have to be renewed.
Member Since: Junio 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2430
323. MAweatherboy1 12:26 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN AL...CENTRAL/NRN GA...AND UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241156Z - 241330Z

A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR ISSUANCE FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO UPSTATE SC...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO WRN NC. PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE BY 13-14Z IS
60-70 PERCENT.

IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUATION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING THROUGH NRN AL...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWED AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AL/WRN GA SINCE
1045Z. COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850 MB HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKENING
OF THE CAP THAT WAS EVIDENT ON THE 24/00Z BHM/ATL SOUNDINGS AND NOW
ERODED PER 12Z BHM SOUNDING. THUS...GIVEN A MOIST WARM SECTOR /PW
VALUES RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCH/ AND LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM...THE
MUCAPE IS ALREADY NEAR 1000 J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TODAY...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KT UPPER JET IN THE TN/OH
VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT ENEWD FROM
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A CONTINUED INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING FROM AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA TO UPSTATE SC/NC.

STRENGTHENING WSWLY DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS /60-70 KT AT 700 MB AND
80-100 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL MAINTAIN STRONG BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..PETERS.. 02/24/2012


ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...M OB...

LAT...LON 33428712 34318561 35618331 35568155 34818065 33658083
32748291 32108446 31738584 31848690 32238741 33428712
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6379
324. GeorgiaStormz 12:36 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN AL...CENTRAL/NRN GA...AND UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241156Z - 241330Z

A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR ISSUANCE FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO UPSTATE SC...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO WRN NC. PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE BY 13-14Z IS
60-70 PERCENT.

IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUATION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING THROUGH NRN AL...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWED AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AL/WRN GA SINCE
1045Z. COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850 MB HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKENING
OF THE CAP THAT WAS EVIDENT ON THE 24/00Z BHM/ATL SOUNDINGS AND NOW
ERODED PER 12Z BHM SOUNDING. THUS...GIVEN A MOIST WARM SECTOR /PW
VALUES RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCH/ AND LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM...THE
MUCAPE IS ALREADY NEAR 1000 J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TODAY...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KT UPPER JET IN THE TN/OH
VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT ENEWD FROM
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A CONTINUED INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING FROM AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA TO UPSTATE SC/NC.

STRENGTHENING WSWLY DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS /60-70 KT AT 700 MB AND
80-100 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL MAINTAIN STRONG BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..PETERS.. 02/24/2012


ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...M OB...

LAT...LON 33428712 34318561 35618331 35568155 34818065 33658083
32748291 32108446 31738584 31848690 32238741 33428712


unless something forms N of the line out there, i am below the squall line :(
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7178
325. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:40 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Today looks like a very busy day Severe Weather wise, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center upgraded to a Moderate risk. I live right on the outskirts of the 10% tornado and 30% hatched damaging wind threat, so it'll be pretty bad here. Temperatures at my location are approaching 70F, Dewpoints are approaching the upper 60s, the winds are blowing from the southwest near 20 mph, and worst of all, skies are rapidly clearing, which will add instability into the area. High's are expected to peak about the time the storms move this way this afternoon, so they will have ~80F temperatures to feed off of.



Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25360
326. StormTracker2K 12:46 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
327. uncwhurricane85 12:47 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today looks like a very busy day Severe Weather wise, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center upgraded to a Moderate risk. I live right on the outskirts of the 10% tornado and 30% hatched damaging wind threat, so it'll be pretty bad here. Temperatures at my location are approaching 70F, Dewpoints are approaching the upper 60s, the winds are blowing from the southwest near 20 mph, and worst of all, skies are rapidly clearing, which will add instability into the area. High's are expected to peak about the time the storms move this way this afternoon, so they will have ~80F temperatures to feed off of.





yeah not looking good for fayetteville and raleigh!! it will be very warm there (as it is always the hottest part of the state) saying now possibly low 80's and the storms will be in that area at max sun...i wouldnt be surprised to see a few damaging tornadoes, straight line wind damage for sure
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 559
328. StormTracker2K 12:49 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Daytona 500 may get rained out on Sunday.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...EXTENDED FORECAST ADDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012


SUN-SUN NIGHT...
WX PATTERN HAS TURNED NOTICEABLY WETTER ON SUN. THE SHORT WAVE TROF
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA/NW MEXICO WILL DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE ENE
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE PREVAILING WRLY FLOW. AS IT DOES...IT
WILL TAP DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GOMEX AND PULL IT ACRS FL.
MEANWHILE...THE MID LVL RIDGE TO THE S WILL HOLD FAST AND PUSH THE
STALLED FRONT BACK TO THE N. INTERACTION BTWN THE MID LVL RIDGE AND
THE MID LVL TROF WILL GENERATE A DEEP AND STRONG SWRLY FLOW THAT
WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS CENTRAL FL.
Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
329. StormTracker2K 12:50 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN AL...CENTRAL/NRN GA...AND UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241156Z - 241330Z

A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR ISSUANCE FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO UPSTATE SC...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO WRN NC. PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE BY 13-14Z IS
60-70 PERCENT.

IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUATION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING THROUGH NRN AL...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWED AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AL/WRN GA SINCE
1045Z. COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850 MB HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKENING
OF THE CAP THAT WAS EVIDENT ON THE 24/00Z BHM/ATL SOUNDINGS AND NOW
ERODED PER 12Z BHM SOUNDING. THUS...GIVEN A MOIST WARM SECTOR /PW
VALUES RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCH/ AND LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM...THE
MUCAPE IS ALREADY NEAR 1000 J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TODAY...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KT UPPER JET IN THE TN/OH
VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT ENEWD FROM
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A CONTINUED INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING FROM AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA TO UPSTATE SC/NC.

STRENGTHENING WSWLY DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS /60-70 KT AT 700 MB AND
80-100 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL MAINTAIN STRONG BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
330. GeorgiaStormz 1:00 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
SPC homepage says moderate risk, new convective outlook out in a minute
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7178
331. Ameister12 1:01 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
The SPC probably isn't going to upgrade to a moderate risk, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they did.

STILL...THE EXPECTATION OF MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING
INSTABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING
WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ATTM.
Member Since: Agosto 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518
332. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:01 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
I'm in a Moderate risk now!

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25360
333. Ameister12 1:02 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting Ameister12:

The SPC probably isn't going to upgrade to a moderate risk, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they did.
STILL...THE EXPECTATION OF MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING
INSTABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING
WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ATTM.

Never mind! They just upgraded today to a moderate risk day.
Member Since: Agosto 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518
334. GeorgiaStormz 1:02 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting Ameister12:
The SPC probably isn't going to upgrade to a moderate risk, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they did.

STILL...THE EXPECTATION OF MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING
INSTABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING
WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ATTM.



WHAT NOW!!!!!
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7178
335. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:05 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Ok, so now I'm in a 10% tornado and a 45% HATCHED DAMAGING WIND threat.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25360
336. SPLbeater 1:08 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm in a Moderate risk now!



i am right on the line of that moderate risk line...

Skies are nothing but clear.

Im thinking this might not be good.
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3955
337. LargoFl 1:14 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting SPLbeater:


i am right on the line of that moderate risk line...

Skies are nothing but clear.

Im thinking this might not be good.
stay safe up there and heed the warnings
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
338. LargoFl 1:16 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting StormTracker2K:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN AL...CENTRAL/NRN GA...AND UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241156Z - 241330Z

A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR ISSUANCE FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO UPSTATE SC...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO WRN NC. PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE BY 13-14Z IS
60-70 PERCENT.

IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUATION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING THROUGH NRN AL...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWED AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AL/WRN GA SINCE
1045Z. COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850 MB HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKENING
OF THE CAP THAT WAS EVIDENT ON THE 24/00Z BHM/ATL SOUNDINGS AND NOW
ERODED PER 12Z BHM SOUNDING. THUS...GIVEN A MOIST WARM SECTOR /PW
VALUES RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCH/ AND LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM...THE
MUCAPE IS ALREADY NEAR 1000 J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TODAY...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KT UPPER JET IN THE TN/OH
VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT ENEWD FROM
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A CONTINUED INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING FROM AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA TO UPSTATE SC/NC.

STRENGTHENING WSWLY DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS /60-70 KT AT 700 MB AND
80-100 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL MAINTAIN STRONG BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
339. LargoFl 1:16 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:
strong system there, be careful
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
340. LargoFl 1:18 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Daytona 500 may get rained out on Sunday.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...EXTENDED FORECAST ADDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012


SUN-SUN NIGHT...
WX PATTERN HAS TURNED NOTICEABLY WETTER ON SUN. THE SHORT WAVE TROF
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA/NW MEXICO WILL DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE ENE
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE PREVAILING WRLY FLOW. AS IT DOES...IT
WILL TAP DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GOMEX AND PULL IT ACRS FL.
MEANWHILE...THE MID LVL RIDGE TO THE S WILL HOLD FAST AND PUSH THE
STALLED FRONT BACK TO THE N. INTERACTION BTWN THE MID LVL RIDGE AND
THE MID LVL TROF WILL GENERATE A DEEP AND STRONG SWRLY FLOW THAT
WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS CENTRAL FL.
yesss bring on the rain
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
341. SPLbeater 1:20 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:
stay safe up there and heed the warnings


sure thing! GOnna go over to my grandparents house at 9, mom didnt give me and my bro schoolwork today which is good, because i can focus on the weather. Weather radio is ready!!

I am sitting just inside the western line of the 45% wind area, well inside the 10% tornado area, so.....:/
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3955
342. gaweatherboi 1:22 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Im in the hatched area and the 10% on tornado...sigh its going to be a busy day with temperatures already at 73 and with dewpoints at 65
Member Since: Agosto 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
343. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:24 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
820 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HAWKINS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SULLIVAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 845 AM EST

* AT 816 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES NORTH OF
SURGOINSVILLE...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROGERSVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS ROTATION MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
GATE CITY...WEBER CITY...OKOLONA...CHURCH HILL...MOUNT CARMEL...
BLOOMINGDALE...HILTONS AND NICKELSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25360
344. gaweatherboi 1:24 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
First tornado warning

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HAWKINS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SULLIVAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 845 AM EST
Member Since: Agosto 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
345. SPLbeater 1:27 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
just looked up what the CIN does. dat blue shade on the CAPE analysis, and ScottLincoln was right. basically a cap, and if it isnt overcome/broke, then you cant get your towering cumulonimbus clouds until it is exausted.

:D
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3955
346. LargoFl 1:29 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
535 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-242245 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
535 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE NATURE COAST. STORMS COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF
LEVY COUNTY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
DENSE AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. LOCALIZED PATCHES
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE. EXPECTED FOG TO
LIFT INLAND AFTER SUNSET WITH SEA FOG DISSIPATING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL VEER MORE NORTHERLY BY
TOMORROW AND BECOME OFF SHORE BY SUNDAY. WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW. SEAS WILL
RESPONSE BY INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 6 TO 8 FEET
OFF SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
347. GeorgiaStormz 1:29 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting SPLbeater:
just looked up what the CIN does. dat blue shade on the CAPE analysis, and ScottLincoln was right. basically a cap, and if it isnt overcome/broke, then you cant get your towering cumulonimbus clouds until it is exausted.

:D


and enough heating can erode a cap if the warm layer rises out of the way.
Member Since: Febrero 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7178
348. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:31 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


and enough heating can erode a cap if the warm layer rises out of the way.

My CAP is broken at the surface, still a little bit higher up though.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25360
349. StormTracker2K 1:31 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
350. severstorm 1:31 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Daytona 500 may get rained out on Sunday.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...EXTENDED FORECAST ADDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012


SUN-SUN NIGHT...
WX PATTERN HAS TURNED NOTICEABLY WETTER ON SUN. THE SHORT WAVE TROF
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA/NW MEXICO WILL DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE ENE
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE PREVAILING WRLY FLOW. AS IT DOES...IT
WILL TAP DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GOMEX AND PULL IT ACRS FL.
MEANWHILE...THE MID LVL RIDGE TO THE S WILL HOLD FAST AND PUSH THE
STALLED FRONT BACK TO THE N. INTERACTION BTWN THE MID LVL RIDGE AND
THE MID LVL TROF WILL GENERATE A DEEP AND STRONG SWRLY FLOW THAT
WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS CENTRAL FL.

NO SAY IT AIN'T SO.....Morning 2K how it going over on the east coast? 65 outside this am cloudy and a good breeze.
Member Since: Noviembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 916
351. LargoFl 1:34 PM GMT en Febrero 24, 2012    
Quoting severstorm:

NO SAY IT AIN'T SO.....Morning 2K how it going over on the east coast? 65 outside this am cloudy and a good breeze.
gee i went to that race 3 times, great event, lots of people will be mad this weekend if they cancel
Member Since: Agosto 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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