Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

4 out of 5 Americans affected by weather-related disasters since 2006, study finds
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:55 PM GMT en Febrero 20, 2012 +37
Since 2006 , federally declared weather-related disasters in the United States have affected counties housing 242 million people--or roughly four out of five Americans. That's the remarkable finding of Environment America, who last week released a detailed report on extreme weather events in the U.S. The report analyzed FEMA data to study the number of federally declared weather-related disasters. More than 15 million Americans live in counties that have averaged one or more weather-related disasters per year since the beginning of 2006. Ten U.S. counties--six in Oklahoma, two in Nebraska, and one each in Missouri and South Dakota--have each experienced ten or more declared weather-related disasters since 2006. South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006. The report did a nice job explaining the linkages between extreme weather events and climate change, and concluded, "The increasing evidence linking global warming to certain types of extreme weather events--underscored by the degree to which those events are already both a common and an extremely disruptive fact of life in the United States--suggests that the nation should take the steps needed now to prevent the worst impacts of global warming and to prepare for the changes that are inevitably coming down the road."




Figure 1. County-level map of federally-declared weather-related disasters between 2006 - 2011. Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest, and heavy rains and snows from Nor'easters, hurricanes, and other storms in the Northeast gave those two regions the most disaster declarations. An interactive version of this map that allows one to click and see the individual disasters by county is on the Environment America website.

Jeff Masters

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901. Tropicsweatherpr 7:43 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Skyepony:


Post ESPI #s & graph..

ESPI made a huge surge toward positive then lost ground. Back to -.63 & been there near 2 weeks now.

Looking at the anomalies per region it looks like a raging El Nino is emanate with the heat coming on fast from east to west..

But wait.. the T-depth anomaly shows the situation..a bit of heat working it's way across the surface over cold. This isn't a true ocean belching heat El nino coming from the deep.



The heat from the surface of the southern Hemisphere is really making it's way to the ESNO region.

I kinda like the dynamical average here (yellow line), maybe a little slower between there & NASA's maybe(blue squares). The way it's being swept in from the south over such cold, leaves a lower certainty than usual..


What is your estimation of how ENSO will be by the Summer?
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902. hurricanejunky 7:43 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
One can find Gas Prices Nationwide easily on the Web.



and?
Member Since: Agosto 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2877
903. SPLbeater 7:45 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
It even snowed here a couple of Christmas's ago.



is that due to a snow machine from TWC? lol
Quoting WxGeekVA:



You know the drill...

[!}, [-], and [Ignore User]


i git 1 point for pointing out the troll first! :D
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904. Patrap 7:46 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting hurricanejunky:


and?


..well, were waiting.

: )
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905. WxGeekVA 7:47 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting SPLbeater:


is that due to a snow machine from TWC? lol

i git 1 point for pointing out the troll first! :D


You get a +1 for that.
Member Since: Septiembre 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3350
907. MontanaZephyr 7:48 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Here gas is still 3.04

I also have 37 MPH steady winds, last check
and a 29.55 barometer

59725 = ZIP

OTOH, climate change, or whatever it is, has been great for SW Montana ... I don't think in this area it has been below zero all winter ... and this region is known for interminable below zero weather, save these last ten years.

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908. hurricanejunky 7:48 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


..well, were waiting.

: )


You mean WE'RE waiting?
Member Since: Agosto 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2877
909. ChillinInTheKeys 7:49 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting SPLbeater:


is that due to a snow machine from TWC? lol

i git 1 point for pointing out the troll first! :D


Link

Yes.
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910. SPLbeater 7:50 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:


You get a +1 for that.


YEAH BOY!!!!! YEEHAW!! I WIN!!

ok im done now. *smiles*
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911. Patrap 7:50 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting hurricanejunky:


You mean WE'RE waiting?


No,I can search purty well.

I have the info,,,and its even well below 3 a gal in Montana,

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912. SPLbeater 7:51 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Link

Yes.


2010 white Christmas contest, i remember watchin on television.
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913. uncwhurricane85 7:52 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting SlormTracker2K:


I 'git' (spelled 'get' but you'll learn that in 9th grade) 1 point for pointing out you're 13!! ~Jeff9614



hahaha the i and e are on opposite sides of the board so none of that my finger slipped or hit two keys nonsense!
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914. SPLbeater 7:53 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
I is included in the high wind outlook.
GeorgiaStormz, stop expanding it! :D
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915. hurricanejunky 7:53 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
We've been kind of stuck in a lows in the upper 50's and highs in the upper 70's bubble for the last few weeks here in North Fort Myers (33917). Great for the electric bill (don't have to run the A/C) and the plants (no hard freezes) but we desperately need more rain. Many older, shallow wells in Cape Coral have dried up leaving some residents without water. Waiting for the other shoe to drop - wildfire season. Hopefully it's not as bad as it looks like it could be.
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916. kwgirl 7:54 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Not as bad as I thought but Savannah will likely be cheaper. Besides, we've been to the Keys so many times and I forgot it's high season down there which makes the trip alot more expensive. I'm sure we'll be down during Cane season...definitely if a storm heads that way. Thanks for the 411!
No problem. Just give me a heads up when you are heading down. I still owe you a tour of East Martello. Yes, it is high season and Spring Break! Traffic is crazy. Took me 30 minutes to get home the other day. In the last few years whenever I went on a car trip, as I go north the prices get cheaper. The nice thing about living in Key West is if the gas gets too expensive, I can always take a bus or ride my bike. Depends on how daring I feel.
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917. Patrap 7:54 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
GOM Sea Height Anomaly


2012



2011
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918. hurricanejunky 7:54 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


No,I can search purty well.

I have the info,,,and its even well below 3 a gal in Montana,



Hopefully you weren't holding out for a medal. LOL
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919. StormTracker2K 7:56 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Here it comes!



MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
208 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012

GMZ850-870-222015-
208 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...

AT 206 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS OVER WESTERN
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...OR
ABOUT 54 NM SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY...MOVING EAST AT 35 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK
SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY
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920. WxGeekVA 7:57 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    

Euro at hour 192.... Hmmm I'm more inclined to believe this than the GFS this winter....
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921. hurricanejunky 7:58 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting kwgirl:
No problem. Just give me a heads up when you are heading down. I still owe you a tour of East Martello. Yes, it is high season and Spring Break! Traffic is crazy. Took me 30 minutes to get home the other day. In the last few years whenever I went on a car trip, as I go north the prices get cheaper. The nice thing about living in Key West is if the gas gets too expensive, I can always take a bus or ride my bike. Depends on how daring I feel.


Will do. Thanks for the open invitation. We love that museum. How is Robert doing? Yeah, that's one great thing about KW is the close proximity of everything lending itself to foot or bike travel. Hopefully this season doesn't send any monster storms your way.
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922. hydrus 7:58 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Alright..Where are the T-Storms....?..
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923. Patrap 8:00 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hopefully you weren't holding out for a medal. LOL





I have a DD-214 available.

Maybe you can try your superior intellect to find it.




Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912
924. StormTracker2K 8:02 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Alright..Where are the T-Storms....?..


Looks like there heading toward FL. Looks as if some severe wx warnings may go up for Citrus & Pasco Counties here soon as this is an intense line of storms rolling in.

Member Since: Octubre 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
925. kwgirl 8:02 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


No,I can search purty well.

I have the info,,,and its even well below 3 a gal in Montana,

Usually the prices listed do not include the Keys. I have not looked at the list you talk about, but I always get disappointed when I go and look for something and they have the Miami area. Even though I am in Key West, the main company online server is in Miami and I get tagged as being an observer from Miami. So I have given up looking. It's easy enough to look at the signs as I drive home on N. Roosevelt. Now the county is thinking of increasing the gas tax again so they can repair the bridges for which they are responsible. Just don't look at the rating for the Garrison Bight bridge. :)
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926. ILwthrfan 8:02 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Alright..Where are the T-Storms....?..


There has been little to no sun at all across Tennessee today, that I'm sure is holding back development for the time being.

Could be that the storms over the Gulf near Florida could be hampering the inflow up into Tennessee also.
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927. SPLbeater 8:05 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
What are the -25, -50, -75 and -100 for on the CAPE analysis?
Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3961
928. Patrap 8:05 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting kwgirl:
Usually the prices listed do not include the Keys. I have not looked at the list you talk about, but I always get disappointed when I go and look for something and they have the Miami area. Even though I am in Key West, the main company online server is in Miami and I get tagged as being an observer from Miami. So I have given up looking. It's easy enough to look at the signs as I drive home on N. Roosevelt. Now the county is thinking of increasing the gas tax again so they can repair the bridges for which they are responsible. Just don't look at the rating for the Garrison Bight bridge. :)


Key West Gas Prices - Florida Gas Prices
www.floridastategasprices.com/Key_West/index.aspx
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912
929. hurricanejunky 8:06 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:





I have a DD-214 available.

Maybe you can try your superior intellect to find it.






It's probably in a location where the sun don't shine.
I've never been anything but nice to you so I'm not sure when it was that you decided you had a problem with me but it sounds like a YP not an MP.
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930. Patrap 8:07 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912
931. hurricanejunky 8:07 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting kwgirl:
Usually the prices listed do not include the Keys. I have not looked at the list you talk about, but I always get disappointed when I go and look for something and they have the Miami area. Even though I am in Key West, the main company online server is in Miami and I get tagged as being an observer from Miami. So I have given up looking. It's easy enough to look at the signs as I drive home on N. Roosevelt. Now the county is thinking of increasing the gas tax again so they can repair the bridges for which they are responsible. Just don't look at the rating for the Garrison Bight bridge. :)


You can also visit gasbuddy.com
They have an app for smartphones too.
Member Since: Agosto 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2877
932. uncwhurricane85 8:11 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:

Euro at hour 192.... Hmmm I'm more inclined to believe this than the GFS this winter....


does this mean a little snow party for D.C.? of course if it plays out?
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933. Patrap 8:13 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    


The "preview comment" feature is a under used asset here.
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934. Patrap 8:16 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Uploaded by maccaustralia on Feb 8, 2012
In the first comprehensive satellite study of its kind, a University of Colorado at Boulder-led team used NASA data to calculate how much Earth's melting land ice is adding to global sea level rise.

Using satellite measurements from the NASA/German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), the researchers measured ice loss in all of Earth's land ice between 2003 and 2010, with particular emphasis on glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica.

The total global ice mass lost from Greenland, Antarctica and Earth's glaciers and ice caps during the study period was about 4.3 trillion tons (1,000 cubic miles), adding about 0.5 inches (12 millimeters) to global sea level. That's enough ice to cover the United States 1.5 feet (0.5 meters) deep.

"Earth is losing a huge amount of ice to the ocean annually, and these new results will help us answer important questions in terms of both sea rise and how the planet's cold regions are responding to global change," said University of Colorado Boulder physics professor John Wahr, who helped lead the study. "The strength of GRACE is it sees all the mass in the system, even though its resolution is not high enough to allow us to determine separate contributions from each individual glacier."



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935. hydrus 8:19 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting ILwthrfan:


There has been little to no sun at all across Tennessee today, that I'm sure is holding back development for the time being.

Could be that the storms over the Gulf near Florida could be hampering the inflow up into Tennessee also.
This is about as strange as it gets for a winter weather pattern..You are right, not much sun on the plateau today. Here is the NOGAPS trying to pull that Baha Low out into the westerlies.
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936. hydrus 8:21 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Member Since: Septiembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14626
937. kwgirl 8:21 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:


Key West Gas Prices - Florida Gas Prices
www.floridastategasprices.com/Key_West/index.aspx
Well thank you Patrap. We finally made the big leagues lol! But since I don't have a computer at home, and I pass the gas stations on my way to work, I will still use the old fashioned method.
Member Since: Marzo 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530
938. hurricanejunky 8:24 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
A simple Google search could have ya not bouncing in here for info that's easily available on line.

I avoid conflict.

It's regressive thinking.

But consider you posts maybe.

The "preview comment" feature is a under used asset here.


Hey smartass, I can pull up gas buddy on my phone and check prices there if I like but I thought I'd ask someone on here whom I know (kwgirl) about gas prices where SHE lives since sometimes those gas prices are not up to the minute.

For someone who doesn't like conflict you sure do like to ridicule others and run your mouth alot. Let me know when you get past whatever wackjob issue you have with me and I'll remove you from my iggy list.
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940. hurricanejunky 8:33 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    

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941. Skyepony (Mod) 8:39 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What is your estimation of how ENSO will be by the Summer?


Warm end of neutral.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29943
942. StormTracker2K 8:42 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222013Z - 222215Z

CORRECTED TO CHANGE NS TO MS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED HEADLINE

CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PAIRED WITH SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES REVEAL A CLEARLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...BENEATH
WHAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT CAPPING INVERSION. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO WARM/SLOWLY MOISTEN...THE EWD SPREAD OF COOLER
AIR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN -- AND THUS LOCATION OF A CONCENTRATED THREAT AREA REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...INCREASINGLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS
PROVIDING A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS. THIS -- AND THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS --
SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.

ATTM...CU FIELD APPEARS MOST ROBUST ACROSS NERN MS AND EWD ACROSS
NRN AL AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH THIS AREA ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND NEAR THE SRN
BOUNDARY OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSING
WAVE...THIS AREA APPEARS ATTM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY INITIATION ZONE
FOR INITIAL CONVECTION.
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943. Skyepony (Mod) 8:50 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
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944. MTWX 8:50 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    

CU field developing over CAFB, MS right now...
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945. LargoFl 8:51 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting SlormTracker2K:
Guys the storms off the coast headed to C FL is really going to help out the drought! Rainy Season commence! ~Jeff9641, RastaSteve
gee on the radar its all yellow and red, some much needed rain there
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946. LargoFl 8:54 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like there heading toward FL. Looks as if some severe wx warnings may go up for Citrus & Pasco Counties here soon as this is an intense line of storms rolling in.

just missing my area by a few miles, hopefully some of that rain will move south a lil
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947. Tropicsweatherpr 8:54 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Skyepony:


Warm end of neutral.


Thanks for the answer. Here is another graphic that ilustrates what is going on.

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948. StormTracker2K 8:56 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Skyepony:


I had a feeling this was going to happen today. I think the dry mid level air is enhancing these storms as they come ashore however they should weaken some as they come across but still producing frequent lightning, heavy rain, and strong straight line winds.
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949. StormTracker2K 8:58 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Thanks for the answer. Here is another graphic that ilustrates what is going on.



I think were heading toward a strong El-Nino JMO though based on the rapid increase in SST's across the equatorial Pacific.
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950. aspectre 9:06 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
stutter-stepped posting deleted
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951. aspectre 9:07 PM GMT en Febrero 22, 2012    
Yet another human-induced avalanche caught on video
According to a spokesman for the AvalancheControlCenter (a part of the Utah branch of the NationalWeatherService), "weather unlike any I've seen in my 15years here" has made the avalanche hazard exceptionally high this winter.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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