Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Should be out of there by then RMM, that storm is supposed to hit Florida Saturday and leave Maine by Monday so you should be fine, airports are usually good about clearing out after a day. Plus its only one model run so anything could change, but for now it still looks good.

Thank you!

Quoting trunkmonkey:



Hey I have a snowplow business, very little snow, we call years like this thinning of the herd!

All those guys going out spending thousands thinking they will get rich, then no snow!
Glad I don't have to depend on snow money to survive!
The older I get the more I hate cold weather and snow.

Now I know why all of the old foggees go to warm climates in the winter!

Well I hope you get some snow, I've never seen more than 6 inches of the white stuff.

Quoting WxGeekVA:



Snow lover says WOOT!!!!!

The local meteorologist believes that it'll just be a wintery mix or rain event.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 15 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 23.4S 41.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
20 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 24.4S 40.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 24.9S 40.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.2S 39.4E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 25.8S 38.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Low level circulation center is now visible on satellite imagery. Convection is organized into banding pattern within a wide low level circulation, convection seems to have trouble rebuilding near the center. System is expected to keep on tracking south south-westward within the next 24 hours on the north-western edge of low to mid-level high pressures centered in the south of Réunion Island. It might rapidly intensify with good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, ocean heat content very high and good low level inflow). Beyond 24 hours, a new mid-level high pressures rebuilds in the southwest of the system. The track beyond 36 hours is the result of the opposite effects of this two cells numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track between 36 hours and 60 hours. Beyond, they are discrepancies. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward track, or even northwestward, towards the Mozambique coast. Others forecast a west southwestward track and even a eastward recurve on Saturday according to ECMWF numerical weather prediction model. Present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model. However, ECMWF ensemble forecast is also highly dispersed at this tau. This important differences seem to be product by intensity forecasts that are more or less strong by different models and so a steering flow due to the opposite effects of this two cells, located at more or less high levels (low level high pressures in the south of system

According to westward tracks). Forecast uncertainty is important at tau 60 and beyond. On Sunday, landfall over Mozambique is not excluded. But now, that is not the RSMC option for official forecast track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
16:00 PM RET February 15 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1000 hPa) located at 14.7S 84.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T 2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 14.7S 82.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.8S 80.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.2S 77.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.4S 74.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=======================

The system is a small size one, with a fluctuating structure shows now a small central dense overcast pattern.

The low level environment is not favorable, with a very poor polar inflow and quite not existing monsoon flow, and despite of quite correct upper level conditions during the next 24 to 36 hours with a good polar outflow, intensification may remain slow. Beyond this hour, the increasing vertical wind shear should limit the development of the system despite of the improving of both trades and monsoon flows.

System might continue to track west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures rebuilding in the south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

This was hilarious.On accuweather they had a post in the news section that said the different tracks of the future snow storm on Sunday.The people in the comments section were furious.Even one of the staff Alex Sosnowski had added negativity.They had to take it down and off the site.LOL.Way to go accuweather...

Word from Madagascar is trickling in, and the death toll is slowly creeping upward. Six people were reported killed in Andasibe alone, a small town roughly midway between the capital city of Antananarivo and the Indian Ocean. (Remember that after past disasters in Madagascar, it has been many days--sometimes weeks--before the outside world was able to hear the whole story).

In other disaster news, nearly 300 have been killed in Honduras after a fire broke out at an overcrowded prison.

Quoting TampaSpin:

LOCAL weatherguy says possible showers this weekend, no mention of a "storm' for the tampabay area as of yet

2 Nations that are Bankrupt trying to call the shots

And

Syria blowing Pipelines

Quoting washingtonian115:
This was hilarious.On accuweather they had a post in the news section that said the different tracks of the future snow storm on Sunday.The people in the comments section were furious.Even one of the staff Alex Sosnowski had added negativity.They had to take it down and off the site.LOL.Way to go accuweather...

On accuweather nowadays, people don't believe them even when they are right.

And Beware another effect of global warming:

Lolland
(this does not mean i believe in global warming, you guys talk about it way too much.)

The Juan De Fuca plate is subducting

Quoting Patrap:


What's going on under north latitude 37.0 east longitude140.7 ?

A Nor'easter? The way this year has been going I am pretty sure it will miss Vermont.

Speaking of Vermont, has anyone noticed anything *strange* in the Wunderground forecasts lately? They are reading about 10 degrees higher than anything else out there. I admit it's been a warm year but I don't think highs are going to be in the 50s next week. Either there's something wrong with the Wunderground forecasts or they are on to something no one else is.

I thought they came from the NWS.. what happened?

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


On accuweather nowadays, people don't believe them even when they are right.

And Beware another effect of global warming:

Lolland
(this does not mean i believe in global warming, you guys talk about it way too much.)

Sure thing, Cat5 GeorgiaStormz (I previously erred in accusing you of being one of Cat5's hundred-plus sock puppets he's been using for many months to stir up trouble here; while you certainly fit the description of a climate contrarian, you're not him/her/it. Mea culpa.). ;-)

Canada Shuts Down LiDAR Research

Posted on February 14, 2012 by lidar

In what one scientist describes as “unthinkable” Environment Canada has shut off funding for atmospheric monitoring. Lidar network measurements of particle pollution layers from five Canadian stations no longer occur, and the website that was distributing this data has disappeared, according to a report in the Feb. 14 issue of the American Geophysical Union’s Eos newspaper.

“Canada is a bellwether for environmental change, not only for Arctic ozone depletion but for pollutants that stream to North America from other continents, ” said Anne Thompson, professor of meteorology, Penn State. “It is unthinkable that data collection is beginning to shut down in this vast country, in some cases at stations that started decades ago.”

I am sure government funding cuts are needed in Canada as they are here in the US, but this certainly seems like an area where the ROI is there. Perhaps there can be external funding sources to support this critical research work.

US will start shutting down all kinds of things soon I believe

361: 140 East Longitude is a long way from Juan de Fuca::
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

Quoting RitaEvac:
Canada Shuts Down LiDAR Research

Posted on February 14, 2012 by lidar

In what one scientist describes as “unthinkable” Environment Canada has shut off funding for atmospheric monitoring. Lidar network measurements of particle pollution layers from five Canadian stations no longer occur, and the website that was distributing this data has disappeared, according to a report in the Feb. 14 issue of the American Geophysical Union’s Eos newspaper.

“Canada is a bellwether for environmental change, not only for Arctic ozone depletion but for pollutants that stream to North America from other continents, ” said Anne Thompson, professor of meteorology, Penn State. “It is unthinkable that data collection is beginning to shut down in this vast country, in some cases at stations that started decades ago.”

I am sure government funding cuts are needed in Canada as they are here in the US, but this certainly seems like an area where the ROI is there. Perhaps there can be external funding sources to support this critical research work.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is, unfortunately, infected with the same anti-science, anti-common sense, pro-Big Energy, profit-over-people disease that so many in America are. And, just as with many American pols, he's flip-flopped on environmental issues in tune with the ebb and flow of dollars. In 2007, for instance, he declared that Canada must act to curb GW; he now claims he was wrong and that it's all a socialist hoax. In the Harper mind, only the rapid mass extraction of his nation's filthy and destructive tar sands can make Canada economically viable.

Yes need coffee or new glasses

Quoting ycd0108:
361: 140 East Longitude is a long way from Juan de Fuca::
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

Quoting RitaEvac:
2 Nations that are Bankrupt trying to call the shots

And

Syria blowing Pipelines

We should stay out of Syria.

There are too many opposing factions involved. It is many different terrorist groups, a terrorist government, and even if any of the civilians actually are "good guys" you can't know who's who. Of course, our naive government will try to "police" it all, which will just cost us trillions of dollars and thousands of lives for no good reason.


Best to use the good "free for all" strategy and let them fight it out.

If we don't like who wins, we can go bust them up later.

367:
Just north of 49th parallel. Well said Neo!

I never hear climate thugs like neapoliton, talk about he profit making Muslim countries, and how they use oil money to destroy America.
Now Iran is going to deprive Europe of Oil, the United States is on their list.

Energy cost have skyrocketed 82% since Obama came into office, Stimulus money by the billions have been squandered by companies who donated heavily into the Obama Campaign.
All I hear is about profits, for the evil capitolist.
I never hear one word about the corruption with the
alternative energy industry, who rape the taxpayer for funds and take huge amounts of MY money for bonuses, when the companies are not making a profit.
It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia falls and the western world will pay the price.
Just remember this you who trash the system.
Hitler had a group called the Brown shirts, they were loyal to him, did his dirty work for him, then the Night of the long knives came!
Be careful who you lie in bed with, because it can and will come back to bite you!

Quoting RitaEvac:
US will start shutting down all kinds of things soon I believe

yes we will devour/atrophy ourselves until we all have the quality of life and life expectancy of a cockroach...

all so we don't have to raise taxes on the rich.

and yes, we are just like hitler if we try to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Hitler was all about that, wasn't he? Oh wait, no he wasn't...

google Godwin's Law please.

We could always have one of these this March...


On March 12, 1993, a newly formed cyclone moved into a low level baroclinic zone already in place over the Gulf of Mexico and began to rapidly intensify. The deepening cyclone turned northeastward (Fig 1.1) and the center of low pressure made landfall (Fig 1.2) in northwestern Florida during the early hours of March 13. An intense squall line (Fig 1.3) preceding a rapidly moving cold front raced across Florida with torrential downpours, wind gusts in excess of 40 m/s, 3-4 meter storm surges and 11 confirmed tornado touchdowns (Radar Loop (QT-800K)).

Recorded Wind Gusts
Mount Washington, NH
Franklin County, FL
Dry Tortugas, FL
Flattop Mountain, NC mph
144
110
109
101 m/s
64.4
49.1
48.7
45.2
Selected text from: Kocin et al. (1995)

Also by this time, widespread moderate to heavy snows extended from Alabama to New York (Fig 1.4), virtually paralyzing the eastern third of the country. An intense pressure gradient developed from the rapidly dropping central pressure (Fig 1.5), resulting in strong winds up and down the East Coast.

Record Sea Level Pressures
White Plains, NY
Philadelphia, PA
New York, (JFK)
Dover, DE Inches
28.28
28.43
28.43
28.45 mb
961.1
962.4
962.4
963.0
Selected text from: Kocin et al. (1995)

Fierce winds coupled with the heavy snow resulted in the cancellation of 25% of the nation's flights on Saturday and Sunday, interstates were impassable and millions were without power at one point in time or another during the passage of the storm.

Recorded Snowfall Totals
Mt. Mitchell, NC
Grantsville, MD
Snowshoe, WV
Syracuse, NY Inches
50
47
44
43 cm
128.0
120.3
112.6
110.1
Selected text from: NDSR (1995)

More than a foot of snow fell from Alabama into Maine, combined with record cold in the storm's aftermath. Seventy record lows were set on March 14, with an additional 75 that following morning.

Record Low Temperatures
Burlington, VT
Mount LeConte, TN
Asheville, NC
Birmingham, AL F
-12
-10
2
2 C
-24.4
-23.3
-16.7
-16.7
Selected text from: Kocin et al. (1995)

When all was said and done, 270 people were dead and total property damage estimates exceeded $3 billion. According to the National Disaster Survey Report (NDSR 1994), twenty-six states were affected, impacting the lives of nearly 100 million people, approximately half the nation's population (Satellite Loop (QT-6M)).

Quoting trunkmonkey:
I never hear climate thugs like neapoliton, talk about he profit making Muslim countries, and how they use oil money to destroy America.
Now Iran is going to deprive Europe of Oil, the United States is on their list.

Energy cost have skyrocketed 82% since Obama came into office, Stimulus money by the billions have been squandered by companies who donated heavily into the Obama Campaign.
All I hear is about profits, for the evil capitolist.
I never hear one word about the corruption with the
alternative energy industry, who rape the taxpayer for funds and take huge amounts of MY money for bonuses, when the companies are not making a profit.
It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia falls and the western world will pay the price.
Just remember this you who trash the system.
Hitler had a group called the Brown shirts, they were loyal to him, did his dirty work for him, then the Night of the long knives came!
Be careful who you lie in bed with, because it can and will come back to bite you!

Actually, gasoline prices are cheaper than they were at the end of the Bush regime.

Additionally, while Obama's budget has a huge deficit, you must remember that we are suffering from all the compounded INTEREST from the tax cuts on the insanely wealthy which President Bush made, as well as the failed Iraq and Afghanistan policies under Bush Jr, which his dear old Dad, Bush Senior, along with Reagan and Colin Powell left everyone, ever since going back to the first Iraq war.


You must also remember, that during America's most prosperous time period from the 50's and 60's, the taxes on the wealthy were far, far higher than they are now.


When you see a Tea Party or Replublican on television talking about tax cuts, don't be fooled, that won't help you.

And the idiot that was talking about the "999" plan by cutting income taxes to 9% but adding a federal sales tax? That would actually increase the total tax rate of the lower 50% of earners significantly. In fact, by the time you count state and local sales tax, normal people would be paying 31% tax, and the wealthy would be paying an average of about 15%, since they don't do much spending anyway the sales tax doesn't actually hit everything they have.

so in short, the Tea Party wants to rob from the poor and average and give to the rich! They don't want a middle class either, though they claim to.

They want it all for themselves.

Many of them claim to be Christians, and they are exactly the opposite of Christian social justice.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


On accuweather nowadays, people don't believe them even when they are right.

And Beware another effect of global warming:

Lolland
(this does not mean i believe in global warming, you guys talk about it way too much.)

i like that picture, lol

Quoting trunkmonkey:
I never hear climate thugs like neapoliton, talk about he profit making Muslim countries, and how they use oil money to destroy America.
Now Iran is going to deprive Europe of Oil, the United States is on their list.

Energy cost have skyrocketed 82% since Obama came into office, Stimulus money by the billions have been squandered by companies who donated heavily into the Obama Campaign.
All I hear is about profits, for the evil capitolist.
I never hear one word about the corruption with the
alternative energy industry, who rape the taxpayer for funds and take huge amounts of MY money for bonuses, when the companies are not making a profit.
It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia falls and the western world will pay the price.
Just remember this you who trash the system.
Hitler had a group called the Brown shirts, they were loyal to him, did his dirty work for him, then the Night of the long knives came!
Be careful who you lie in bed with, because it can and will come back to bite you!

What is a "climate thug"? If you mean someone who insists on his children and grandchildren having the right to live on a planet not made unlivable (or nearly so) due to the many negative effects of our outlandish fossil fuel consumption, then, okay, yes, I suppose I'm a "climate thug". I've certainly been called worse... ;-)

Anyway, you might be interested to know that the U.S. produced more oil in 2010 than it had since 2003, and even more was siphoned from the earth in 2011. You might also not know that Obama has--unfortunately--opened up millions of previously off-limits acres for oil and gas exploration. You might also like to know that mining for radioactive ores has risen every year under Obama. Ditto hydroelectric. Ditto solar. Ditto wind. Ditto biofuels. (Not to mention that he ended the war in Iraq which had been destabilizing energy prices.) So please explain to us how his policies have caused energy costs to "skyrocket". I'm dying to hear...

Anyway, it's plainly obvious to all that a rapid move away from fossil fuel consumption would be immensely helpful. Imagine how it would be to live in a world where our economies weren't subject to the whims of OPEC's oil sultans. Imagine how it would be to live in a world where smog-belching vehicles weren't clogging every city. Imagine how it would be to live on a planet that wasn't headed for certain catastrophe due to rapid warming.

How anyone--other than an oil company CEO, that is--could not want a part of that world is beyond me.

Thailand today. 1000 miles from top to bottom of this MODIS satellite photo.

Quoting Inyo:


yes we will devour/atrophy ourselves until we all have the quality of life and life expectancy of a cockroach...

all so we don't have to raise taxes on the rich.

The banks are holding all that money like an addict to its last fix...Its ugly, and it will get worse for the poor and middle class.

5 day snowfall acc.

Meanwhile in Madagascar:

--A least 10 deaths are confirmed with the passage of Giovanna

--"From the East coast we received reports of damage and human loss caused by heavy winds and flooding.” said Dominic Stolarow, UNICEF’s Emergency Coordinator in Madagascar.

--According to an impromptu aerial survey, 70% of the buildings in Brickaville have been destroyed or damaged.

--...and 60% of the buildings in the district capital of Vatomandry have been destroyed or damaged.

--Up to a million people may have suffered some of the harshest effects of the storm.

--There's currently no communication with the hardest hit areas.

How does the + comment work?

Damn you Neapolitan, you climate thug! How dare you continue to counter ignorance with FACTS.
Tsk tsk. ;)

Quoting skook:
How does the + comment work?

You create a bunch of sock puppet accounts to plus your own posts on some obscure blog on Wunderground then you can be as obnoxious as you like on the main blog and still be there even when everyone there gives you minuses.

Quoting bappit:

You create a bunch of sock puppet accounts to plus your own posts on some obscure blog on Wunderground then you can be as obnoxious as you like on the main blog and still be there even when everyone there gives you minuses.

True. FWIW, a large number of pluses on many of my comments on this blog and others over the past few days have been by the same four or five sock puppets: NaplesFLBreeze, EllenPettit, NaplesWebDesigner56, EPAsupporter56, Xvrus2000,and even the very tiresome GiovannaDatoli. For the record, those are not mine, though they were obviously intended to look that way. No, I've had and used this one handle and only this one handle the entire time I've been on WU. (The obsessed owner of those sock puppets has created literally dozens of them. Many have been banned, and for good reason. But the poor little dude just keeps making more. Sigh...)

Storms are starting to fire up quite rapidly west and north of Houston... Link

So far the SPC is not concerned...yet.

Quoting Inyo:
A Nor'easter? The way this year has been going I am pretty sure it will miss Vermont.

Speaking of Vermont, has anyone noticed anything *strange* in the Wunderground forecasts lately? They are reading about 10 degrees higher than anything else out there. I admit it's been a warm year but I don't think highs are going to be in the 50s next week. Either there's something wrong with the Wunderground forecasts or they are on to something no one else is.

I thought they came from the NWS.. what happened?

WU has it's own bestforecast that gives the forecast for any weather station on WUnderground. Go to a city forecast on WU. Directly under the cities name on the left it says Bestforecast & a box. If it says on in that box that is the forecast your looking at. If you want to change back to NWS forecast click where it says on & it will change it right away to the NWS forecast, & the box will say off. You can click it back on. Bestcast has been more detailed many times. Really great if you're near a PWS in a microclimate that NWS forecast always seems a little off for or you want a forecast for your PWS. It seems to be intuitive & has improved lots since it was unleashed some months ago. I've been using it mostly for a while, still toggle some between the two. It handled the recent cold here better than the NWS, though I've seen it bomb a few..especially in the early days.

Quoting Skyepony:


WU has it's own bestforecast that gives the forecast for any weather station on WUnderground. Go to a city forecast on WU. Directly under the cities name on the left it says Bestforecast & a box. If it says on in that box that is the forecast your looking at. If you want to change back to NWS forecast click where it says on & it will change it right away to the NWS forecast, & the box will say off. You can click it back on. Bestcast has been more detailed many times. Really great if you're near a PWS in a microclimate that NWS forecast always seems a little off for or you want a forecast for your PWS. It seems to be intuitive & has improved lots since it was unleashed some months ago. I've been using it mostly for a while, still toggle some between the two. It handled the recent cold here better than the NWS, though I've seen it bomb a few..especially in the early days.

Funny you'd mention the Bestforecast; Dr. Masters wrote about it in his new blog entry.

Iran denies cutting off oil exports to six EU countries, heralds nuclear advances
Reuters Feb 15, 2012 – 8:06 AM ET | Last Updated: Feb 15, 2012 8:33 AM ET

Richard Johnson/National Post Graphics By Parisa Hafezi

TEHRAN — Iran’s Oil Ministry denied state media reports on the Islamic state stopping its crude exports to six European countries on Wednesday.

“We deny this report … If such a decision is made, it will be announced by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council,” a spokesman for the ministry told Reuters.

Iran’s English language Press TV had earlier said Tehran has stopped exporting oil to France, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Netherlands and Spain.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Funny you'd mention the Bestforecast; Dr. Masters wrote about it in his new blog entry.

Maybe they made bestforecast the default setting or something.. Guess it's past time to make the leap.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/15 /leak-exposes-heartland-institute-climate

Quote:
Heartland operates on a range of issues besides the environment. But discrediting the science of climate change remains a key mission. The group spends $300,000 on salaries for a team of experts working to undermine the findings of the UN climate body, the IPCC.

It plans to expand that this year by paying a former US department of energy employee to write an alternative curriculum for schoolchildren that will cast doubt on global warming. The fundraising plan notes the anonymous donor has set aside $100,000 for the project.