Category 4 Giovanna battering Madagascar
Earth's most dangerous storm of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Giovanna, which is bearing down on Madagascar as a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giovanna is predicted to hit a heavily populated portion of the east coast of the island near 22 GMT tonight as a Category 3 storm, then move inland, passing near the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm on Tuesday morning. The outer spiral bands of the storm have already moved over the island, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds.
Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna approaching Madagascar, taken at 6:35 UTC Monday February 13, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Webcam view of the skies over the Andila Beach Hotel in northwest Madagascar, taken at 6:15pm local time on Monday February 13, 2012. Image credit: Andilana Beach Hotel.
The forecast: not good
Recent microwave satellite imagery (Figure 3) shows that Giovanna has concentric eyewalls, and it likely that the inner eyewall will collapse today as the storm undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should gradually weaken the storm, and I expect Giovanna will weaken slightly to a still very dangerous Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at landfall. However, the eyewall replacement cycle will spread out the storm's hurricane-force winds over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. A 70-mile long swath of the coast that is heavily populated will receive sustained hurricane-force winds tonight. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches in a 24-hour period are expected along the center of Giovanna's path. These rains will cause extensive flooding and major damage to the country, and the storm is likely to be one of the top three most expensive disasters in Malagasy history. The damage potential is higher than for previous storms of similar intensity, due to the considerable deforestation Madagascar has experienced over the past 30 years. Madagascar lost 8.3% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 and is now just 22% forested, according to mongabay.com. Flood waters run off quicker from deforested land, reach higher heights, and cause greater damage.
Figure 3. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 12:30 UTC (7:30 am EST) Monday, February 13, 2012. The echo-free eye is surrounded by two concentric eyewalls, the sign of a storm undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.
Madagascar's tropical cyclone history
The strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Madagascar was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the northern end of the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Galfilo dumped up to 20 inches of rain on the island, and its winds and flooding rains killed 363 people and did $250 million in damage, making it the deadliest and second most expensive storm in Madagascar's history. Gafilo's central pressure of 895 mb made it the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, behind the 890 mb central pressure of Tropical Cyclone Zoe of December 2002, which affected Fiji and the Solomon Islands. With a central pressure of 937 mb, Giovanna is a much less intense storm than Gafilo was.
Jeff Masters
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I have the same feeling. But where will it be is the $1billion question.
Click Thumbnail for full size Image.
These are the images produced. It is fully customizable.
Magnitude 5.1 - local magnitude (Ml)
Time Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 2:09:28 AM (PST)
Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 10:09:28 (UTC)
Distance from Calexico, CA - 67 km (41 miles) SSE (152 degrees)
Yuma, AZ - 80 km (50 miles) SW (219 degrees)
Brawley, CA - 98 km (61 miles) SSE (159 degrees)
Ocotillo, CA - 102 km (64 miles) SE (130 degrees)
Coordinates 32 deg. 8.4 min. N (32.141N), 115 deg. 9.6 min. W (115.159W)
Depth 31.1 km (19.3 miles)
Quality Poor
Location Quality Parameters Nst= 19, Nph= 19, Dmin=68 km, Rmss=0.18 sec, Erho=2.2 km, Erzz=19.6 km, Gp=252 degrees
Event ID# ci11066877
Additional Information map ||
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST TUE FEB 14 2012
PRC047-101-143-145-141245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0002.120214T0946Z-120214T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
546 AM AST TUE FEB 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE
* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COROZAL MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MOROVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
VEGA ALTA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
VEGA BAJA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VEGA BAJA...
* UNTIL 845 AM AST
* AT 542 AM AST U.S.G.S. RIVER SENSORS INDICATED THAT THE RIO CIBUCO
WAS AT 15.63 FEET...AND THEREFORE STILL ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE AND
SLOWLY RISING. AT 16 FEET THE RIVER MAY FLOOD ROAD NUMBER 2 IN VEGA
BAJA AND VEGA ALTA AS WELL AS ROADS 675 AND 676. FOR THOSE
REASONS...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 845 AM AST.
A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
A FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST
FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING
WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1849 6641 1847 6633 1829 6633 1831 6644
$$
JJA
I've seen a report of only 1 confirmed fatality so far in Madagascar, though that total will likely rise... Also, what's with all the earthquakes last night: Magnitude 5+ quakes in Greece, Japan, Baja California, and Solomon Islands.
"Town criers, who walk around the streets ringing a bell and shouting out information in the local Malagasy language, are normally used by the government in a time of crisis.
But Mr Healy said they were not heard on Monday and it has left many people taken aback by the storm's severity."
Here's the link if anybody wants to copy and paste it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17025328
In reality, things are probably very bad in the coastal villages now.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS AIDED BY PHASING
OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH. IF THIS OCCURS...STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS COULD AID
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE AND
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE POTENTIAL
FOR A GREATER SEVERE RISK THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO."
Possible first hint that a Moderate risk may be required tomorrow?
a major quake in CA would send them straight into bankruptcy
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...
THE VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH MODELS INDICATE
WILL DIG INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK...APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS IMPULSE DIGS INLAND ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. VARIABILITY EXISTS
AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL
INTERACTION WITHIN ANY OTHER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW. BUT POTENTIAL DOES SEEM TO EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS COULD BE AIDED BY CONSIDERABLE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AS IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT COULD BECOME FAIRLY HIGH BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS AS GENERALLY DEPICTED BY THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE ECMWF...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD EVOLVE...AT LEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA...SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS...THOUGH...TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK
Just like last year, it's starting back to back....
Tomorrow, people from Shreveport to Jackson and then especially from Jackson to Birmingham need to pay close attention. This has the potential to be a tornado outbreak, featuring a few long-lived, large, damaging tornadoes.
Florida will need to watch through the Days 4-8 period.
TC13 is headed to Madagascar if it lasts that long:
Also from the SPC Day 2 Convective outlook:
SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook
AND THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER...OR
CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
500 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 50-70+ KT.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE SUGGESTIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS OF
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS AIDED BY PHASING
OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH. IF THIS OCCURS...STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS COULD AID
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE AND
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE POTENTIAL
FOR A GREATER SEVERE RISK THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.
THE VERY ACTIVE WX PATTERN OF LATE SHOULD CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDS...AND BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASED CHC OF PCPN. HOWEVER THESE LATEST PROGS ARE NOW POINTING TO THE LATTER PART OF FRI INTO SAT AS OUR "BEST" CHCS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE TX COASTLINE COMBINED WITH THE WWD PUSH OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF. ATTM THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SEEM A LITTLE OUT OF SYNC BUT THESE STRONG DYNAMICS ARE HARD TO IGNORE.
:\
Looks like the Charter has been activated for remote sensing over Madagascar. Hope they get some good assistance fast.
But remember, due to the system that passed by last night, no one has fully analyzed this next system yet.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY...BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN CLOSER AGREEMENT AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH MODEL SHOW A SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THU NIGHT AND INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FRONTAL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IT
LOOSES SUPPORT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES RAPIDLY NE. ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD ENTER THE
NW GULF SATURDAY AND REACH THE PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. GFS HAS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG IT, FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING ON MONDAY.
Morning all, Man your all over this stuff for the weekend, Keep me up to date. Gots lots going on this weekend. Still chilly in my neck of the woods this morning 35 when i left for work.
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Viewing: 401 - 437
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