2011: Earth's 11th warmest year; where is the climate headed?
The year 2011 tied with 1997 as the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said last week. NASA rated 2011 as the 9th warmest on record. Land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures, the 11th warmest. For the Arctic, which has warmed about twice as much as the rest of the planet, 2011 was the warmest year on record (between 64°N and 90°N latitude.) The year 2011 was also the 2nd wettest year over land on record, as evidenced by some of the unprecedented flooding Earth witnessed. The wettest year over land was the previous year, 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2011. The Arctic was the warmest region, relative to average. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global temperatures were 0.12°C (0.2°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead.
Figure 2. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2011, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 33 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took the five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. Since the known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 33 years, either human activity or some unknown natural source is responsible for the global warming during that time period.
Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.
Commentary: what do climate scientists think?
Some scientists have proposed that previously unknown natural causes could be responsible for global warming, such as a decrease in cloud-producing galactic cosmic rays. Others have proposed that the climate may be responding to the heat-trapping effects of carbon dioxide by producing more clouds, which reflect away sunlight and offset the added heat-trapping gases. These theories have little support among actively publishing climate scientists. Despite public belief that climate scientists are divided about the human contribution to our changing climate, polling data show high agreement among climate scientists that humans are significantly affecting the climate. A 2008 poll of actively publishing climate scientists found that 97% said yes to the question, "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" In my personal experience interacting with climate scientists, I have found near-universal support for this position. For example, I am confident that all 23 climate scientists and meteorologists whom I am personally acquainted with at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Science would agree that "human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures." It is good that we have scientists skeptical of the prevailing consensus challenging it, though, because that is how scientific progress is made. It may be that one of the scientists making these challenges will turn out to be the next Einstein or Galileo, and overthrow the conventional scientific wisdom on climate change. But Einsteins and Galileos don't come along very often. The history of science is littered with tens of thousands of discredited scientific papers that challenged the accepted scientific consensus and lost. If we rely on hopes that the next Einstein or Galileo will successfully overthrow the current scientific consensus on climate change, we are making a high-stakes, low-probability-of-success gamble on the future of civilization. The richest and most powerful corporations in world history, the oil companies, have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to push us to take this gamble, and their efforts have been very successful. Advertising works, particularly when your competition has little money to spend to oppose you.
Where is the climate headed?
The 2007 United Nations-sponsored IPCC report predicted that global temperatures between 2007 and 2030 should rise by an average of 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. The observed warming over the past 30 years is 15 - 30% below that (but within the range of uncertainty given by the 2007 IPCC climate models.) Most of the increase in global temperatures during the past 30 years occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. The 2000s have seen relatively flat temperatures, despite increasing CO2 emissions by humans. The lower-than-expected warming may be partially due to a sharp decrease in stratospheric water vapor that began after 2000. The missing heat may also be going into the deep ocean waters below about 1,000 feet (300 meters), as part of a decades-long cycle that will bring extra heat to the surface years from now. Regardless, the laws of physics demand that the huge amount of heat-trapping gases humans are pumping into the atmosphere must be significantly altering the weather and climate, even if we are seeing a lower than predicted warming. As wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood said in a recent post,Changing the Conversation: Extreme Weather and Climate: "Given that greenhouse gases are well-known to hold energy close to the Earth, those who deny a human-caused impact on weather need to pose a viable mechanism of how the Earth can hold in more energy and the weather not be changed. Think about it."
Our recent unusual weather has made me think about this a lot. The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history--the "Super" tornado outbreak of 1974, the Dust Bowl summer of 1936, and the great Mississippi River flood of 1927. I appeared on PBS News Hour on December 28 (video here) to argue that watching the weather over the past two years has been like watching a famous baseball hitter on steroids--an analogy used in the past by climate scientists Tony Broccoli and Jerry Meehl. We're used to seeing the slugger hit the ball out of the park, but not with the frequency he's hitting them now that he's on steroids. Moreover, some of the home runs now land way back in the seats where no one has ever been able to hit a home run before. We can't say that any particular home run would not have occurred without the steroids, but the increase in home runs and the unprecedented ultra-long balls are highly suspicious. Similarly, Earth's 0.6°C (1°F) warming and 4% increase in global water vapor since 1970 have created an atmosphere on steroids. A warmer atmosphere has more energy to power stronger storms, hotter heat waves, more intense droughts, and heavier flooding rains. Natural weather patterns could have caused some of the extreme events we witnessed during 2010 - 2011, and these years likely would have been naturally extreme years even without climate change. But it strains the bounds of credulity that all of the extreme weather events--some of them 1-in-1000-year type events--could have occurred without a significant change to the base climate state. Mother Nature is now able to hit the ball out of the park more often, and with much more power, thanks to the extra energy global warming has put into the atmosphere.
Extreme weather years like 2010 and 2011 are very likely to increase in frequency, since there is a delay of several decades between when we put heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere and when the climate fully responds. This is because Earth's oceans take so long to heat up when extra heat is added to the atmosphere (think about how long it takes it takes for a lake to heat up during summer.) Due to this lag, we are just now experiencing the full effect of CO2 emitted by the late 1980s; since CO2 has been increasing by 1 - 3% per year since then, there is a lot more climate change "in the pipeline" we cannot avoid. We've set in motion a dangerous boulder of climate change that is rolling downhill, and it is too late to avoid major damage when it hits full-force several decades from now. However, we can reduce the ultimate severity of the damage with strong and rapid action. A boulder rolling downhill can be deflected in its path more readily early in its course, before it gains too much momentum in its downward rush. For example, the International Energy Agency estimates that every dollar we invest in alternative energy before 2020 will save $4.30 later. There are many talented and dedicated people working very hard to deflect the downhill-rolling boulder of climate change--but they need a lot more help very soon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If "it" werent so sad/true, and wretchedly scary,I would have laughed out loud at that comment.
All points in the Known Universe converge on the Carolina's come Dec 21st.
That explains it.
I have a memory that comes and goes, but I thought he was blathering on about turning 12 or 13 not to long ago.
????
Sunspot 1410 (Saturday) - By Ron Cottrell
Magnetic Activity off the Western Limb (Saturday) - SDO
I remember we used to have past times like this with "Florida Heat."
Lets just do a bit of 1st year arithmetic.
Can I have your attention please?
X1-------0.5 degrees in 60 years. = 0.5, of a Degree.
X10------0.5 degrees in 600,years. = 5, Degrees.
X100-----0.5 degrees in 6000,years = 50, Degrees.
I'll leave you to do the ETCs.
This is not of course going to happen but Some of it is!
A sort of revelation!
Before you get too rapped up in the theological discussions read pages 239-325 of "The Story of B" by Daniel Quinn.
Now back to the warmest winter this ex-Louisianan and present Virginian has experienced. Please give us some winter and precipitation so the plants will be able to make the grain and the breweries will be able to make the beer. We're going to need it, it's an election year.
Its only going to get increasingly weirder.
The current National Radar.
whats that on his nose
never mine
Have a great evening folks.
Spathy out :O)
Data is measured in Kiruna, Sweden by The Swedish Institute of Space Physics.
That all depends on which universe you are currently operating in?
We could be dealing with negative ageing here!
Our Living experiment on Terra Forming Earth's atmosphere has Consequences.
By Albina Kovalyova & Alissa de Carbonnel | January 27, 2012
When severe snowstorms prevented life-sustaining fuel supplies from reaching the frozen Alaskan town of Nome, U.S. officials turned to a Russian company for help.
The relief mission through perilous, ice-choked seas was the first mid-winter fuel delivery to western Alaska, capping a year of pioneering shipping as oil and gas development and climate change increase traffic along northern trade routes sought by centuries of Arctic explorers.
Russia has staked future growth on mining the Arctic’s vast energy resources, and reviving a Soviet-era shipping route along its Siberia coast is an integral part of that plan. It could also promise economic revival for Russia’s ports and shipyards, struggling since their Soviet-era glory days.
But industry analysts and mariners say ice floes, narrow straits, shallow waters, poor infrastructure and stormy winters continue to loom as obstacles to safe and profitable shipping through the polar shortcut.
“We must develop the Arctic!” said Fazil Aliyev, a sea captain and owner of the tanker that voyaged to Alaska.
“It is profitable for everyone. Our clients win because their cargo is delivered faster, now we need to make it economically viable… try to make it a year-round route,” he said, speaking by phone from Vladivostok, Russia’s gateway port to Asian markets.
Aliyev’s company, RIMSCO, tripled cargo along Russia’s coastal waterway last year when a warm summer kept what Russia calls the Northern Sea Route open for a record 141 days, almost a month longer than usual.
Sometimes called the Northeast Passage, the circumpolar route is a network of sea lanes across the top of continental Eurasia which crosses Russian waters from the Kara Gate to the Bering Strait and trims some 4,000 nautical miles (7,400 km) off southern routes.
Danish shipping group Nordic Bulk Carriers said it saved a third of the cost and nearly half the time sending goods to China sailing north of Russia instead of via the Suez Canal.
“It’s a very promising region and an interesting shipping lane that almost halves the distance between Europe and the Far East,” Aliyev said.
TOUGH TIMES AT THE SHIPYARD
In the White Sea port of Severodvinsk, once a closed city of 200,000 at the heart of the Soviet Union’s Cold War nuclear submarine program, defense contracts won by the shipyard and tested at a nearby naval base still pay the bulk of wages.
Big black submarines lumbered out to sea from its docks in ice-free waters without the help of tugboats or icebreakers unusually late into the fall last year.
Built in the 1930s, the state-owned Sevmash shipyard 35 km (22 miles) north of the city of Arkhangelsk is a jumble of buildings and factory floors big enough to be a town itself, with canteens, churches and a museum for its 27,000 employees.
USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map adjusted to Account for Warming
Jan 26, 2012; 1:07 PM ET
The USDA has released an updated version of their plant hardiness zone map for the first time in 22 years. The map accounts for recent warming trends and thus some zones have been adjusted northward.
The new map, located on the USDA website, uses 30 years of weather data gathered from 1976 to 2005 and is more precise than the 1990 version, showing smaller areas and accounting for higher elevations and bodies of water that can influence temperature, according to the USA TODAY article.
This report reflects the contributions of multiple individuals. Jason Samenow of EPA served as the report's day-to-day project manager, with key assistance from Kevin Rosseel. Eastern Research Group, Inc., under contract to EPA, managed the report's technical development and layout. ICF International also provided support in the screening and development of indicators.
Scientists across five federal agencies were instrumental in providing indicator data and/or reviewing the indicator descriptions.
In particular, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center provided key assistance for this report's chapter on weather and climate.
EPA also received essential support for this report from scientists at a number of universities, nongovernmental organizations, and international institutions.
Over the last several decades, evidence of human
influences on climate change has become increasingly clear and compelling. There is indisputable
evidence that human activities such as electricity production and transportation are adding to the concentrations of greenhouse gases that are already naturally
present in the atmosphere. These heat-trapping gases
are now at record-high levels in the atmosphere compared with the recent and distant past.
Warming of the climate system is well documented,
evident from increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and
rising global average sea level. The buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is very likely the cause of most of the recent observed increase in average temperatures, and contributes to other climate changes.
Collecting and interpreting environmental indicators has played a critical role in our increased understanding of climate change and its causes. An indicator represents the state of certain environmental conditions over a given area and a specified period of time.
Scientists, analysts, decision-makers, and others use environmental indicators, including those related to
climate, to help track trends over time in the state of the environment, key factors that influence the environment, and effects on ecosystems and society
See post 256 for an oasis of something weather related.
National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.
They appear to be gone, did I violate a rule or something? OR did I just put them up incorrectly?
If you hot link some site's they time out.
ah, thanks for the info. I will have to try again.
concetrate on your own life
This blog.
Thats what makes this site,sharing.
One, if ya have Chrome, can save an image and grab the URL off the DownLoad Menu Tab and then post, I usually "Preview" it to make sure it takes though
I don't think anyone here hates the bible. It's as good a mythology as any (though there are number of stories you might want to leave out if your reading to kids).
It's the fundamentalist, young earth, creationists who believe the literal interpretation of the bible that people get irritated with.
Using Firefox. I thought I did grab the URL, but I must have got "something" else.
i have no clue how long i will remain on this blog.
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