Flooding, heavy snow, ice storm, and fires hit the Western U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:39 PM GMT en Enero 20, 2012

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A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:

...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0

...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2

...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0

...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0

...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1

...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0

And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:

...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23

...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.

The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.

The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.

It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.

Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Not Good... (catilac)
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway. The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
Not Good...
Christmas Tree Down (RenoSoHill)
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Christmas Tree Down
Mother Ship (RenoSoHill)
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Mother Ship
Snow in Federal Way (hniyer)
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Snow in Federal Way
Bit of snow! (NicholasLee)
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
Bit of snow!

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All of you are wrong, lol. The last major hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Hurricane Wilma in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It has been 6 years.


Ike! i MEAN IKE! was a major hurricane. No, it did not rate a 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale but the damage it did was more than Wilma.
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Funso is not so fun.


Quoting yqt1001:
Meteo France isn't being to pleasant today. Honestly, they are pretty much saying that Funso will be a horrible disaster for Mozambique, and are predicting a category 5 strength cyclone (140mph 10-minute winds, likely to be one of the strongest cyclones in 2012) at landfall.



Funso isn't going to be much fun. :(
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

we were talking about the Gulf Coast of the USA...



I'm aware, but I thought I'd point that out. :)
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Last major hurricane to make landfall along the Gulf Coast = Hurricane Karl of 2010. Mexico's Gulf Coast.

we were talking about the Gulf Coast of the USA...

You can't say the Gulf Coast of Mexico is part of the Gulf Coast of the USA like I said Florida was part of the Gulf Coast of the USA. :P
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Last major hurricane to make landfall along the Gulf Coast = Hurricane Karl of 2010. Mexico's Gulf Coast.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting SteveDa1:
This is weird... Yesterday I was walking, minding my own, when suddenly I heard baby birds in nearby trees. This is an absolutely normal event, except for the fact that we are in JANUARY?!

I live in Montreal, Quebec and it's winter here with about 1 foot of snow on the ground and daily highs between -5 and -10C with lows down to -20C... but it's only been consistently seasonable for 2-3 weeks.

Before that, temperatures were consistently above freezing and there was barely any snow on the ground (which isn't normal at all for this region) We had our warmest November on record and December was also very warm with plenty of rain when we usually get several snowstorms.

If this happened in my neighbourhood, is it happening everywhere else in the region? Could it be that some birds thought it was already spring because winter wasn't making an appearance? I don't think they'll survive the cold temperatures that are sure to be felt for the next 2 months.

Just thought I'd share this with you...


Thanks for sharing this info. This is very interesting because the Robin Red-Breasts have shown back up in Oklahoma all of a sudden. This has not happened before that I have seen or known of in January. It just doesn't make sense. Usually they show up right around March, at the very beginning of spring. When they suddenly show up you know spring is right around the corner. From appearances it seems as though the ones that visit here stay south of here in winter (southern Texas and Mexico). The map about these birds I'm not too sure about it's accuracy. The robins are outside hopping around all over the place in the forest looking for bugs like they usually do when they first arrive in big groups. Then they disperse out into pairs later.

Actually I'm concerned as to why they are here in January. We will all need help here because of the heat by this summer, if the birds are heralding spring already. Last year here a large majority of gardens failed during the summer because it stopped going below 80 degrees at night, so next to nothing pollinated.

Because of all of the acorns and the mild winter (so far) the deer here are all BIG, and the other forest animals are quite fat as well. So there could still be a winter coming we are not giving up here yet on waiting for it. Our bird friends may just be confused, we shall see.

Today it was foggy until noon. At noon it was foggier than it was at 7am this morning. In some places like parking lots you could see it rolling along the ground like waves it was so thick. We were in the clouds, on the ground. Last time this happened we had a terrible ice storm the next day. Hopefully this is not the case this time. As far as precipitation, anything but ice. Finally the fog cleared out but it was really slow about it.

Have a good day all. :)

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Quoting Articuno:


We were talking about hurricanes to hit the gulf coast....

Florida is part of the Gulf Coast :)

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All of you are wrong, lol. The last major hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Hurricane Wilma in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It has been 6 years.


We were talking about hurricanes to hit the gulf coast....
Member Since: Octubre 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
Quoting yqt1001:
Meteo France isn't being to pleasant today. Honestly, they are pretty much saying that Funso will be a horrible disaster for Mozambique, and are predicting a category 5 strength cyclone (140mph 10-minute winds, likely to be one of the strongest cyclones in 2012) at landfall.



Funso isn't going to be much fun. :(

Your right, Funso won't be fun for Mozambique. DX
Member Since: Octubre 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
All of you are wrong, lol. The last major hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Hurricane Wilma in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It has been 6 years.

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Nice video from Perth/WA
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Comet Corpses in the Solar Wind.

Link

Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
Quoting Articuno:

Actually, it's the sixth. Last was 2005's Rita.
Ike or Gustav in 08' were cat 2's when they hit.
--however I still think Ike was 3 at landfall.
But yeah, it's been about 6 1/3 yrs.
Yes I consider Ike a major hurricane especially when you look at pictures of the damage. Actually it will be 4 years when the Hurricane Season starts.
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Meteo France isn't being to pleasant today. Honestly, they are pretty much saying that Funso will be a horrible disaster for Mozambique, and are predicting a category 5 strength cyclone (140mph 10-minute winds, likely to be one of the strongest cyclones in 2012) at landfall.



Funso isn't going to be much fun. :(
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Quoting cedarparktxguy:


Supposed to be 83 degrees in Central Texas today... Beyond that, who knows.

I read some of you guys saying that a cold snap is headed through the plains. It was the first week of February where a central texas was in a deep freeze with snow last year. I really hope there is a repeat this year.
Hey there, I'm just a few miles to your south. I really hope we do not have a repeat of last year and all its busted pipe glory.

I would like some cooler weather. The garden doesn't know what to do with itself right now and I'm worried about everything trying to bud out and bloom.
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Giant freak lightning storms rumble across Western Australia

Posted on January 20, 2012
January 20, 2012 – AUSTRALIA – Four people have been struck by lightning and thousands are without power as dangerous weather sweeps Perth and the outer metropolitan coast. The State Emergency Service has warned people to stay safe as the storm sweeps through Perth and the coast from Lancelin to Mandurah. A man was hit by lightning in Mandurah at 4am and St John Ambulance confirmed later today that a man was struck by lightning in Baldivis and was taken to Rockingham Hospital. Another person was struck by lightning in Welshpool. None of the lightning victims have life-threatening injuries. A St John Spokeswoman said that they had received a call for a fourth person struck by lightning in Myaree but that the ambulance was cancelled. Homes have been damaged, floods are causing concern on the roads and domestic and international flights have been delayed. The storm has left at least 22,000 homes without power, mainly in the south metropolitan region, and also caused delays on the Mandurah to Perth railway line as bad weather hampered repairs. Train services were back to normal by lunchtime. Western Power is attending to the blackouts and SES volunteers have responded to at least 75 calls for help, mostly for flooding. Damage has been reported from Swan to Armadale to Rockingham and Mandurah, but most of the calls have come from Rockingham and Mandurah. More dangerous weather is coming between Minilya, Mount Augustus, Paynes Find, Corrigin, Narrogin, Mandurah, along the coast to Dongara and inland to Minilya, including the Perth metropolitan area. “If you live between Minilya, Mount Augustus, Paynes Find, Corrigin, Narrogin, Mandurah, along the coast to Dongara and inland to Minilya, including the Perth metropolitan area, you should take action with more dangerous weather to come,” FESA said. –Perth Now

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Quoting dabirds:


Thought it was 5th year?

Still no precip here, though radar showing ice one county east, no idea if it's getting to surface. Looks a lot heavier from Hungtington back to Louisville. Anyone know if that's hitting the ground? Flights at O'Hare getting cancelled too, snow flying up there, winter weather warnings for northern counties.

Actually, it's the sixth. Last was 2005's Rita.
Ike or Gustav in 08' were cat 2's when they hit.
--however I still think Ike was 3 at landfall.
But yeah, it's been about 6 1/3 yrs.
Member Since: Octubre 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It has been 3 years since the Gulf Coast states including FL. has been hit by a major Hurricane!


Thought it was 5th year?

Still no precip here, though radar showing ice one county east, no idea if it's getting to surface. Looks a lot heavier from Hungtington back to Louisville. Anyone know if that's hitting the ground? Flights at O'Hare getting cancelled too, snow flying up there, winter weather warnings for northern counties.
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34. MTWX
Quoting Neapolitan:
The cold goes away pretty quickly after tonight. From HAMweather, here are maps showing forecast daily low temperature anomalies for the next six days across the Lower 48:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

We've been 10-20 degrees above average here (with the exception of 2 cold snaps a couple days long, bringing us near normal).
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33. MTWX
Quoting SteveDa1:
This is weird... Yesterday I was walking, minding my own, when suddenly I heard baby birds in nearby trees. This is an absolutely normal event, except for the fact that we are in JANUARY?!

I live in Montreal, Quebec and it's winter here with about 1 foot of snow on the ground and daily highs between -5 and -10C with lows down to -20C... but it's only been consistently seasonable for 2-3 weeks.

Before that, temperatures were consistently above freezing and there was barely any snow on the ground (which isn't normal at all for this region) We had our warmest November on record and December was also very warm with plenty of rain when we usually get several snowstorms.

If this happened in my neighbourhood, is it happening everywhere else in the region? Could it be that some birds thought it was already spring because winter wasn't making an appearance? I don't think they'll survive the cold temperatures that are sure to be felt for the next 2 months.

Just thought I'd share this with you...

Similar thing are happening here in Mississippi. My trees are already budding, my flowers are startign to bloom and the cattle are already dropping their calves!! All of these normally don't happen for a another month and a half or so!!!
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For my area, second of the whole winter....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
100 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-502-210200-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0006.120121T0400Z-120121T1800Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
ST. MARYS-CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG
100 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO ONE INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET. A TRACE
UP TO A TENTH INCH FROM FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING AS RAIN LATER SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTH SATURDAY

* IMPACTS...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVELING
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ICE WILL
ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND POWERLINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
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It seems the winter weather has shifted its focus to the Pacific Northwest as opposed to the last 2 years where it was on the East Coast. I don't mind, however, this type of weather pattern might influence storm tracks come Hurricane Season. It has been 3 years since the Gulf Coast states including FL. has been hit by a major Hurricane! By the way nice snapshot of Lenticular clouds sent in by Mother Ship(RenoSoHill). :)
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Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 20 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (985 hPa) located at 19.9S 64.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center extending up to 130 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 21.6S 63.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 23.1S 62.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 28.2S 63.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 33.3S 71.4E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

System is currently near its closest point approach of Rodrigues at about 75 km to the east southeast. Cloud pattern remains an embedded center pattern with no major change during the last 6 hours although some hint of a warm core on latest infrared imagery.

Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwards track over the next 2 days then a southeastwards re-curving motion and extratropicalization.

Within the next 18/24 hours, environment remains rather good. Beyond, system should begin to under
Go northwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of an upper level trough. Latest CIMSS shear analysis show that it has began to turn to the northwest and strengthen a little bit (15 knots).

Rodrigues island seems to have experienced the most significant weather this evening with recorded gust at 70 kt at Pointe Canon and mean 10 min winds at 49 knots recorded at Plaine Corail at 1500 PM UTC.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
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Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 20 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (973 hPa) located at 18.3S 37.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
10 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 to 50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
65 to 70 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.4S 37.7E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.0S 38.0E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.3S 39.5E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 20.7S 40.3E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

There is some doubt about still classified Funzo as a tropical cyclone. Latest microwave imagery suggest an eyewall replacement cycle although it is not clear at this time. Intensity is hold the same at this time.
Last visible pictures show a warm point and microwaves confirm the very small size banding eye structure of the system.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track of the system within the next 48 hours, at first rather slow during the next 24 hours, and after east to southeastward under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge north of the system.

Beyond 48 hrs, numerical weather prediction models are more dispersed. Deterministic models are in rather good agreement for a global re-curvement south to southwestward, but ensemble prediction suggest a south to south southeast track. Current forecast is close to the ECMWF one.

For the next 24 hours, proximity of the coast of Mozambique and weakening of the oceanic energetic potential (slow movement of the system) are expected to be limiting factors for deepening. Beyond 24 hours, system should recover better environmental conditions in the lower levels. Upper levels conditions remain favorable and system is expected to intensify again regularly.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models exclude the landfall on the Mozambique coast at short range but the regions of Quelimane and Beira should undergo heavy rains during the next 24 hours at least.

Inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..

(extended outlook has this a very intense tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 120 knots)
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Advisories now extended south and west, 3-midnight, includes us now. Temp up to 25, so still a little below freezing rain temps so far. Hope we miss that, can handle sleet, but hate ice! Heard from fellow employee who lives north of I-80, says 3" there and still coming down, ran into it just north of Bloomington, IL on way home.
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Quoting aspectre:
blog2016comment105 sunlinepr quoting 9news.com/news/article "A 24-hour cold spell brought snow and rain to...the province of Bechar...located in the northern Sahara, about 36 miles south of the Moroccan border."

The left dot is Midlands. The middle dot is PuertoRico. And the right dot is Bechar.

Midlands,Texas is ~30miles farther north and ~300feet higher in elevation than Bechar,Algeria.
What with Bechar being in the foothills of the AtlasMountains, I'd suspect that

folks living there wouldn't be particularly surprised by an occasional dusting of snow.
I know when I lived in Morocco in the 50's, my family would do car caravans to the Atlas mountains. That's where I remember seeing my second snow, the first being a dusting in Norfolk. So I would suspect you are correct, even though it sounds strange.
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blog2016comment105 sunlinepr quoting 9news.com/news/article "A 24-hour cold spell brought snow and rain to...the province of Bechar...located in the northern Sahara, about 36 miles south of the Moroccan border."

The left dot is Midlands. The middle dot is PuertoRico. And the right dot is Bechar.

Midlands,Texas is ~30miles farther north and ~300feet higher in elevation than Bechar,Algeria.
What with Bechar being in the foothills of the AtlasMountains, I'd suspect that

folks living there wouldn't be particularly surprised by an occasional dusting of snow.
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We are finally getting rain and snow here in Truckee, CA, just east of the Sierra crest. It's about time - extreme fire danger/red flag warnings are unheard of here in the middle of January.

We could use an "atmospheric river" to dampen things up. A previous one, on New Year's 1997, saw four feet of snow followed by a week of warm rain - the "Pineapple Express".
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http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/glo bal2/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Right click on the picture and it should have an option in your browser to copy the URL so you can paste it in your browser.
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We're now getting a little freezing rain here on Vancouver Island as the storm comes onshore but it looks like it won't be nearly as bad as Washington and Oregon got. Except in the Fraser Valley... they've been dealing with the same major Arctic Outflows all week... apparently snow is drifting upto 14ft and now they're getting significant freezing rain.

Really hoping the SouthWesterlies kick in soon and bring us back up to 5-10C. Miss the warmth.

That said, we still haven't got a good dump of snow in Port Alberni. My kids are dying for a snow day!


Bappit. Where did you get that graphic? Love it.
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Incoming for Pacific northwest.

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The cold goes away pretty quickly after tonight. From HAMweather, here are maps showing forecast daily low temperature anomalies for the next six days across the Lower 48:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm
Member Since: Noviembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13269
Joplin Recovery Plan endorsed by local leaders and applauded by residents - a great example of Americans pulling together!

href="http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metro/jo plin-leaders-endorse-tornado-recovery-plan/article _13785974-436c-11e1-bafd-0019bb30f31a.html" target="_blank">Link Sorry not gettin' this link thing yet!
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Where is winter in the SE(Mobile,Al.)? We have had some temperatures below 32 degrees....but not many and it doesnt stay for very long. I dont ever remember running the AC, this much during the winter!
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RIP Etta James, an American classic!
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i lived in Olympia, WA for 3yrs, and cannot fathom what 25" of snow has done to them!! i once experienced 6" in a storm there, and that utterly crippled the town for a couple days.
i hope some of that melted along the way, not just accumulating 2 feet.. and this is Far from over :(
stay strong NW!!
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Uploaded by ve3en1 on Jan 19, 2012

Here is a presentation of the M3.2 Long Duration Event around Sunspot 1402 on Jan 19, 2012. Images + Movies by SDO, EVE and STEREO. This event produced a bright and partially Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection.



www.solarham.com
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
This is weird... Yesterday I was walking, minding my own, when suddenly I heard baby birds in nearby trees. This is an absolutely normal event, except for the fact that we are in JANUARY?!

I live in Montreal, Quebec and it's winter here with about 1 foot of snow on the ground and daily highs between -5 and -10C with lows down to -20C... but it's only been consistently seasonable for 2-3 weeks.

Before that, temperatures were consistently above freezing and there was barely any snow on the ground (which isn't normal at all for this region) We had our warmest November on record and December was also very warm with plenty of rain when we usually get several snowstorms.

If this happened in my neighbourhood, is it happening everywhere else in the region? Could it be that some birds thought it was already spring because winter wasn't making an appearance? I don't think they'll survive the cold temperatures that are sure to be felt for the next 2 months.

Just thought I'd share this with you...
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hey guys how goes it? wont be on much today, purty busy....figured I let yal know.

Good post Dr. Masters.
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Saw 13 last night coming home from dart league, but clouds moved in and was 16 on way to work, no frozen precip yet, advisories are north and east of us, hopefully, no ice - #7 shows it pretty close.
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Good morning Dr Jeff and friends who post here and Happy Jan 20th to you all.

So happy to report here in SE Fla we have had a beautifully mild winter.
Most of the cold fronts never made it this far to the SE.
or if they did the cooler air did not last long and was not that cold.

We are starting to get a little too dry but this is our "dry season" and we normally
are very dry this time of year.

I am loving this winter so far!

You all have a great weekend.
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Thank you Dr Jeff..
Reading about the CME heading our way I was reminded that the earth's atmosphere expands when exposed to increased levels of solar UV radiation. Stupid question time.... does anyone know the effect this has on the weather?
Happy Friday!
Member Since: Septiembre 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
Thanks Jeff...you're up early
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Quoting Neapolitan:
That Washoe fire outside Reno has burned over 3,700 acres, led to at least one fatality, destroyed at least 20 homes (as Dr. Masters noted), and forced over 10,000 to evacuate (ditto). Conditions are supposed to ease, however, and there are reports this morning that the fire's forward progress has stopped.

Those snow and rainfall totals are incredible. 15.5" of rain at Swiss Home, Oregon? Over 3' of snow at Ketchum, Idaho?

Hell & high water, I guess.


Also for Vice President Joe Biden to cut short of his appearance at Galena High School in Reno, Nevada.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012/jan/19/reno- wildfire-forces-vice-president-joe-biden-cut-/
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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